Dependent on Russia for 40 percent of its gas imports, Italy seeks to reduce this dependence – and quickly – by turning to other countries while accelerating its move towards renewable energy sources. Prime Minister Mario Draghi and the head of the Italian multinational oil and gas company ENI traveled to Algeria in April to sign a preliminary energy agreement. Then last month, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune visited Rome to finalize ENI’s agreement with Algeria’s state-owned Sonatrach. Under the agreement, Algeria will gradually increase gas flows to Italy via the Transmed pipeline. While Algeria may eventually play a useful role in helping Italy reduce its dependence on Russian gas, Italian policymakers have many obstacles to overcome. In 2010, Algeria was Italy’s leading gas supplier, but as the North African country had to meet growing domestic demand, exports to Italy have since declined. In 2013, Russia became Italy’s number one gas supplier, supplying Italy with twice as much gas as Algeria. Last year, Russia supplied Italy with 28.988 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, compared to Algeria’s 22.584 bcm. Algeria could reroute exports to support Italy and other European countries seeking to wean themselves off Russian gas, a move simpler as Algerian gas imports from Tunisia have declined with Algeria giving higher priority to exports to Italy. However, Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project manager for the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that technical rather than political obstacles meant that Algeria could at most likely reroute only 5-10 bcm to Italy. and the rest of Europe. “Domestic demand for gas continues to grow very fast and there are no significant new projects going on the internet in the coming years that could boost [Algeria’s] production. “If nothing else, total gas production is likely to fall slightly as the pressure on the old deposits decreases,” Fabiani said. The dynamics stemming from the growing East-West divide could put more pressure on Algeria to carefully navigate the Ukrainian conflict, as part of the Algeria-Moscow partnership. There could be growing concerns in Europe about future gas imports from Algeria to Moscow, given the major North African nation’s military purchases from Russia. Ultimately, Algeria, a country that prioritizes foreign policy independence, is trying to strike a delicate balance in boosting energy exports to EU countries while maintaining its defense and strategic partnership with Moscow. Since February 24, Algerian officials have sought to maintain a level playing field between the West and Russia. For example, in early May, Russia’s top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, traveled to Algeria shortly before a visit by Lieutenant General Hans Werner Wirmann, head of NATO’s International Military Staff. As a regional heavyweight and former colony, Algeria does not accept orders from other capitals. “The roots of this balancing act must be found in the non-aligned movement, where Algeria was at the forefront, which also seems a safe foreign policy choice for many countries in the Maghreb and the developing world – a third way to escape the spiral. and the polarization that comes from the conflict in Ukraine, “Umberto Profazio, an associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a Maghreb analyst at the NATO Defense College Foundation, told Al Jazeera.
The struggle for the last colony of Africa
A stronger Algerian-Italian energy relationship has implications for the Maghreb and Southern Europe. Last year, President Tebboune cut off gas flows from his country to Spain via Morocco amid intense controversy. On June 8, Algeria suspended the 2002 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Spain in response to Madrid approving Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan for Western Sahara in March. This was a move made by Spain to repair the fences with Morocco after the bilateral relations they suffered when Polisario Brahim Ghali was treated for COVID-19 in a Spanish hospital in April 2021 and the subsequent crisis in Ceuta. Will Algeria try to use energy to pressure European governments to adopt more and more Algerian-aligned positions in Western Sahara? “Algeria wants to be heard and taken into account by its European counterparts, who are under increasing pressure from Morocco to renegotiate their relations and reconsider their positions on Western Sahara,” Fabiani said. “Energy is certainly a source of leverage for Algeria and Moroccan diplomats acknowledge that they can not expect all Algerian gas-dependent countries in Europe to adopt [Rabat’s] “There is little pressure on Italy, for example, to change its position in Western Sahara.” However, Algeria’s leverage against European countries over Western Sahara has its limits. If Algeria tried to “blackmail” its buyers into switching positions in Western Sahara, it would risk jeopardizing its role as a credible energy supplier, according to Fabiani. “European governments need credible energy exporters and are unlikely to tolerate any blatant exploitation of energy links for political purposes.” As it turns to Algeria for an enhanced energy relationship, Rome will probably need to pay more attention to Western Sahara, taking care not to disturb either Algeria or Rabat. “Italy has not taken a final position on the Western Sahara dossier so that it can move more freely than Spain in relations with Morocco and Algeria,” said Giuseppe Dentis, head of the MENA office at the Center for International Studies and Teaching. assistant at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan. Polisario support is a cornerstone of Algeria’s foreign policy, while Morocco sees the conflict in Western Sahara as an existential issue. But for Italy, this controversy is likely to become more of a diplomatic headache than anything else.
