The poll, released Tuesday, puts Sen. Mark Kelly (D) ahead of Republican Blake Masters by 2 points, with 47 percent of Arizona voters saying they would support the incumbent Democrat and 45 percent saying they would vote for the challenger. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A similar poll released last month had Kelly with a 6-point lead, 46 percent to Masters’ 40 percent, indicating the race is getting closer as the midterms approach.
In September, 15 percent of Arizona voters said they were still undecided, would vote for another candidate or would not vote in the Senate race — but that number dropped to 9 percent in the new poll.
Almost all Democrats, or 92 percent, said they would vote for their party’s nominee. But while the share of Democrats backing Kelly has remained the same in the last two polls, the share of Republicans backing Masters has jumped from 76 percent last month to 85 percent in the new poll.
In the state’s governor’s race, Trump-endorsed Republican Carrie Lake leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by just 1 point, leading 47% to 46% — well within the 3-point margin of error.
The two candidates were just one point apart in last month’s poll, though the winner flipped — in September, Hobbs led with 44 percent to Lake’s 43 percent.
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The percentage of voters who are still undecided, would vote for another candidate or won’t vote is also on the decline in the governor’s race, falling from 13 percent last month to just 7 percent this month.
Independents prefer Democrats in both races, but a larger share of this demographic remains undecided than in other parties.
The poll was conducted Oct. 26-30 under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company and interviewed 1,003 Arizona voters.
