SLOVIANSK, Ukraine – The euphoria that accompanied Ukraine’s unpredictable early victories against Russian troops is waning as Moscow adjusts its tactics, regains its pace and reaffirms its overwhelming firepower against anti-Ukrainian forces. The recently promised Western weapons systems arrive, but too slowly and in insufficient quantities to prevent the gradual but relentless Russian gains in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, which is now the focus of the struggle. The Ukrainians are still counterattacking, but they are running out of ammunition and have losses at a much higher rate than in the early stages of the war. About 200 Ukrainian soldiers are now being killed every day, up from 100 late last month, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC on Friday – meaning up to 1,000 Ukrainians are being evacuated from the struggle every day, including those injured. The Russians continue to make mistakes and also lose men and equipment, albeit at a slower pace than in the first months of the conflict. As a sign that they were suffering from equipment shortages, they appeared in videos posted on social media carrying hundreds of Soviet-era T-62 tanks out of storage for shipment to Ukraine. But the overall trajectory of the war has undoubtedly been shifted by one of Russia’s unexpectedly sad failures, and it has leaned in favor of Russia as the proven strongest. “Ukraine and the United States hope that new supplies of Western weapons will allow Ukraine to regain the initiative and eventually recapture the estimated 20 percent of Russian territory occupied by Russia since its invasion on February 24.” Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, Adviser to the Government of Ukraine on Defense and Intelligence. “The strategies and tactics of the Russians are completely different at the moment. “They are much more successful,” he said. “They have more resources than us and they are not in a hurry.” “There is much less room for optimism at the moment,” he added. Ukrainian forces remain resolute. In a cafe in the city of Sloviansk on the front line, two Ukrainian soldiers on a break from nearby trenches were told how they were forced to retreat from the town of Dovhenke, northwest of Slovyansk, under the withered fire of Russian artillery. Thirty-five of their 100 units were killed in the attack, a tactic used by Russia. “They are destroying everything and coming in,” said Vitaliy Martsyv, 41, one of the soldiers. “There is nothing there,” Andriy Tihonenko, 52, told Dovhenke. “Everything has been burned.” As troop deaths increased, the surviving soldiers felt “more motivated to hold our ground,” Tikhonenko said. To retreat after their comrades were killed defending the city, he said, would be like treating their deaths as trivial. But in the end, the defensive line was no longer effective, the two men said. With more than a third of their force killed, the remaining soldiers had no choice but to withdraw. “Sometimes you feel down,” Tikhonenko said. “But then you realize that war is war – and you have to end it.” Russian artillery hits Ukrainian forces as Russia advances into eastern Ukraine But the odds against Ukrainians are starting to look overwhelming, said Danylyuk, a government adviser. “The Russians are using long-range artillery against us, often without any response, because we do not have the means,” he said. “They can attack from tens of kilometers away and we can not counterattack. We know all the coordinates for all their important goals, but we do not have the means to attack “. Ukraine has almost run out of ammunition for Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and Eastern European countries that have maintained the same systems have run out of surplus donation stock, Danylyuk said. “Ukraine urgently needs to turn to larger, more sophisticated Western systems, but they have recently committed to insufficient quantities to respond to Russia’s enormous firepower,” he said. Russia fires up to 50,000 artillery shells a day at Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only counterattack with about 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has pledged to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition – enough to respond to Russian firepower for about four days. According to the Pentagon, the majority of US M777 artillery shells, which US officials said would allow Ukraine to respond to Russian fire, are now being used on the battlefield. However, the Russians continue to move forward. Four of the most advanced and long-range HIMARS multi-missile launchers the Ukrainians have long requested from the United States are on their way, along with three similar systems promised by Britain. But Ukrainians must first be trained how to use them, and they are still weeks away from reaching the battlefield, US officials say. The Pentagon has hinted that more systems will be available once the Ukrainians prove they can be used. But the Russians started the war with about 900 similar systems of their own, and although the Ukrainians claim to have destroyed hundreds, the Russians still have hundreds, Danylyuk said. The Russians, meanwhile, have adjusted their tactics in ways that have allowed them to take full advantage of their firepower by staying away from Ukrainian positions, pounding them mercilessly and then occupying territory as soon as the Ukrainians are forced to retreat. The Russians are also doing a better job of combining their weapons, using close air support and deploying landed infantry, said Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine now at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research. Russian officials said they were moving slower than during the initial invasion to avoid civilian casualties. On the contrary, the tactic helps reduce Russian casualties, while inflicting heavy casualties on civilians living in the cities and villages targeted, analysts say. “I’m afraid of any explosion or sound,” Irina Makagon said as she sat in her kitchen in Kostiantynivka, a town near the front line that has been heavily bombed. She was sitting in her kitchen earlier this week when an explosion and a whistle heralded an incoming shell that fell on the house next door, killing a young man. “He’s in Hell”: Hail of the coming Russian artillery tests the morale of Ukraine The Ukrainians are still fighting well and could cause regular pain to the Russians when the opportunity arises, said Dmitry Alperovich of Silverado Consultancy, citing Russia’s disastrous attempt to cross the Siverskiy Donets River late last month. Hundreds of Russians were killed and dozens of military vehicles destroyed. The Ukrainians are also carrying out successful drone strikes against Russian positions and supply columns, he said. Russia has not released any casualties since March. “But when you look at what is happening, I would be shocked if the Russians have losses anywhere close to what the Ukrainians are at the moment,” Alperovich said. Manpower is less of a problem for Ukrainians than shortages of ammunition and equipment, said Danylyuk, who cited the number of men who have signed up to fight at 6 million. However, Ukraine does not have the equipment, including protective gear and weapons, as well as artillery systems, to bring in contact with all those who are willing to volunteer. “We would send them to their deaths without equipment,” he said. The Russians are also facing a shortage of manpower, following the heavy losses suffered in the first days of the war. Western officials put the death toll at 15,000 to 20,000 so far, with one-third of the original invading force unfit to battle due to injuries, captives and equipment losses after the devastation of the first two months. But Russia has revived its forces to a greater extent than many military analysts had expected, boosting its depleted army by 40,000 to 50,000 men in the past two months, raising the age of the reserve force, developing new forces and renovating units that had been decimated, Danylyuk said. At present, the Donetsk River stands in the way of significant new Russian progress. Western officials say they expect Russian troops to soon take full control of the city of Severedonetsk and are likely to turn their attention to Lysyshansk, on the opposite bank of the river, which would put them in full control of the Luhansk region. . After that, they are expected to target the greater Donetsk region, which Russia has controlled in part since 2014. Lysyshansk will be a tougher challenge because the Ukrainians control high ground and the strength of Russian artillery is less of an advantage in close combat in cities, said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Warsaw-based defense company Rochan Consulting. Russia may find it difficult to maintain its recent gains for much longer than that, given the losses it has suffered so far, he said. But if the Russians manage to cross the river, they could start moving fast, he said. “The Ukrainians are supporting their defense on the Donetsk River. “If Russia crosses the river successfully, my concern is that the Russians will enter Donetsk with all their might and then the Ukrainians may be overwhelmed.” Sly reported from London. Heidi Levine in Slovyansk contributed to this report.
