Leading the campaign to form a government are former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with his Likud party and its right-wing religious allies, and current caretaker prime minister Yair Lapid, with his centrist Yesh Atid party and his diverse crew of supporting parties, united in large part from opposition to Netanyahu. Another hopeful is Defense Minister Benny Gantz, head of the National Unity party, who has campaigned as a compromise candidate who can reach across blocs to find an elusive majority. Netanyahu’s bloc is the strongest, in the 50s and up to 61 seats in major network polls. Lapid’s bloc never passed the 56 seats in those polls and has been unable to articulate how it would form a government if the polls prove true. Instead, if these sometimes unreliable surveys are accurate, Lapid’s best hope may be to prevent Netanyahu or another candidate from assembling a viable coalition. Gantz has sought to position himself as an alternative to both Netanyahu and Lapid, who inspire strong opposition from political rivals. However, the constellation of the bloc-busting coalition includes parties with bitter animosities, and it is unclear how he could hit the magic number himself. That said, a number of factors hang in the balance that could change the Knesset map predicted by pollsters and pundits. Even a small change can shake the stalemate and open a path to power for one of the contenders. Get The Times of Israel Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories By signing up, you agree to the terms Prime Minister Yair Lapid (L), Defense Minister Benny Gantz (C) and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu (R) (Flash90)
1. Arrival of Arab voters
There are three Arab lists participating in the current election, and their fate could seal the fate of the Lapid-led bloc. With Arab turnout expected to be lower than in previous rounds, the Arab vote could become a critical issue. The Ra’am Islamist party, a member of the outgoing coalition, would join a Lapid or Ganj government, while the Hadash-Ta’al alliance has historically formed a third, non-aligned wedge of seats not available to any bloc. Both are hovering near the electoral threshold and without significant turnout, they may collapse. The Palestinian nationalist Balad party is not expected to pass the minimum threshold of 3.25 percent of the vote, given 1.6 percent in the latest Channel 12 pre-election poll. Hadash-Ta’al in particular is nervous about its chances, making a rare appeal over the weekend to Jewish voters to vote “strategically” for the party and make sure it takes at least four seats on Tuesday. Joint List party chairman MK Ayman Odeh attends a meeting of the Internal Security Committee at the Knesset, in Jerusalem on December 13, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) About 17 percent of Israel’s nearly 6.8 million voters are Arab, according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Central Election Commission. Historically, Israel’s Arab community – including Muslims, Christians and Druze – have had lower turnout rates than Jewish voters. In the previous election, Arab turnout fell to an all-time low of just 44%, compared to 72% among Jewish voters and 67% overall. Low turnout meant reduced representation among Arab parties in the Knesset. In 2020, when the four Arab parties participated together in the Joint List, Arab representation reached a record 15 seats. In 2021, after Ra’am left the Joint List, they won only 10 collective seats between them. Now that the Joint List has been further broken down into Hadash-Ta’al and Balad, with Ra’am continuing to run a separate campaign, Arab participation has reached 37% and 48% in recent weeks. If either Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am failed to return to the Knesset, the Likud-led bloc would be expected to benefit proportionally and have opened a path to power. If both fell short, Netanyahu’s prospects would be even better. With both in the Knesset, it would open up an opportunity for Lapid to block the formation of another government. Likud claims it may even pursue a coalition that includes or relies on Hadash-Ta’al. Both Lapid and Hadash-Ta’al have dismissed this as a possible scenario. In the final days of the campaign, some analysts have argued that Arab turnout may turn out to be higher than polls suggest, with even Balad potentially closing in on clearing the Knesset’s 3.25 percent threshold. Previous elections have shown that pollsters have particular concern when it comes to predicting the Arab vote.
2. The turnout of Haredi voters
New concern about Haredi voter turnout has emerged in recent weeks as voters allied with the Ashkenazi Haredi party, United Torah Judaism, have grown disillusioned with the party’s leadership after a year in opposition. UTJ currently has seven seats and has repeatedly polled to return that number. Low voter turnout or losing votes to another right-wing party could reduce that number to six, a scenario that has caused much panic in Haredi political circles. However, only if the seat leaves the block will it affect the immediate impasse. Haredi voters account for 11% of the electorate, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics, and the bulk of their votes go to the UTJ and the Mizrahi Haredi Shas party. In the last election, Haredi voter turnout reached 80%. However, public broadcaster Kan reported that by mid-October, Haredi voter turnout was projected to drop by 12 percent. United Torah Judaism president Rabbi Yitzchak Goldknopf poses for a photo in Jerusalem on September 13, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) According to polls, the rise in popularity of Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben Gvir, especially among younger or more nationalist Haredi voters, has also drawn votes away from the party. About 6% of the Haredi vote can be transferred to religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit, according to Kan. That wouldn’t change the bloc’s math or ability to form a government, but it would change the power dynamics within that government if Haredi parties end up losing seats.
3. Former Yamina voters looking for a home
The former ruling party Yamina won seven seats under Naftali Bennett in 2021, unexpectedly propelling him to the prime ministership, but did not even go to the polls this November. The dissolution of the party has created some political refugees. Almost a third of Yamina voters in March 2021 identify as nationally religious and are generally among the moderate, mainstream version of the diverse national religious spectrum. He also drew part of his base from some secular right-wing and traditional voters. In contrast, 61% of the Religious Zionist party’s 2021 voters were nationally religious, and the party is seen as representing the hard-right end of that spectrum. Ayelet Shaked (center) and Yossi Brodny (R) at a Jewish Home campaign event in Givat Shmuel on September 20, 2022. (Flash90) Yamina’s legacy is now best represented by the Jewish Home and its leader, former Bennett deputy Ayelet Shaked. But the party has consistently struggled in the polls and managed only 1.5%-2% in the last major network polls over the weekend. While many former Yamina voters have migrated to Religious Zionism or another party on the right or center, a portion is still considering voting for Shaked. Shaked says Netanyahu needs her to pad the numbers for his government. Netanyahu’s camp claims it is jeopardizing the entire operation by burning right-wing votes as it exits the Knesset. If voters feel that hope is lost and abandon it, they may shrink the right’s lost votes and push Netanyahu within striking distance of a majority. If, on the other end, Shaked beats expectations to enter the Knesset, she could give Netanyahu extra seats — or keep them for him, should he wrest them from Likud in the first place.
4. Left parties sting at the threshold
Poor performances by two more parties in Lapid’s bloc could derail Netanyahu’s path to the election. The leftist Meretz and the centre-left Labor Party are approaching the threshold. Without much movement between blocs, much of Yesh Atid’s gradual rise in the polls during the months of the campaign came at the cost of cannibalizing its leftist partners. Meretz and Labor have made frantic last-minute efforts to get voters to turn out and vote for them, rather than expand the number of seats Lapid’s Yesh Atid hopes to take. If either Labor or Meretz leave the Knesset, polls predict a comfortable victory for Netanyahu. Labor leader Merav Michaeli summarily rejected Lapid’s attempts to unite her party and Meretz ahead of the September shortlist deadline, preferring to keep Labor as an independent body over what he perceived as providing a lifeline to Meretz. Will this decision come back to haunt her? Transport Minister Merav Michaeli holds a press conference in Tel Aviv on September 14, 2022. (Flash90)
5. And yes, the weather
Perhaps the most common factor, expected bad weather can limit the willingness of unmotivated voters to head to the polls. So much so that experts expect it could reduce turnout in some areas. Israelis must vote in person at that polling station…
title: “As Israel Votes For Fifth Time Since 2019 These 5 Factors Could Break The Deadlock " ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-18” author: “Melissa Snider”
Leading the campaign to form a government are former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with his Likud party and its right-wing religious allies, and current caretaker prime minister Yair Lapid, with his centrist Yesh Atid party and his diverse crew of supporting parties, united in large part from opposition to Netanyahu. Another hopeful is Defense Minister Benny Gantz, head of the National Unity party, who has campaigned as a compromise candidate who can reach across blocs to find an elusive majority. Netanyahu’s bloc is the strongest, in the 50s and up to 61 seats in major network polls. Lapid’s bloc never passed the 56 seats in those polls and has been unable to articulate how it would form a government if the polls prove true. Instead, if these sometimes unreliable surveys are accurate, Lapid’s best hope may be to prevent Netanyahu or another candidate from assembling a viable coalition. Gantz has sought to position himself as an alternative to both Netanyahu and Lapid, who inspire strong opposition from political rivals. However, the constellation of the bloc-busting coalition includes parties with bitter animosities, and it is unclear how he could hit the magic number himself. That said, a number of factors hang in the balance that could change the Knesset map predicted by pollsters and pundits. Even a small change can shake the stalemate and open a path to power for one of the contenders. Get The Times of Israel Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories By signing up, you agree to the terms Prime Minister Yair Lapid (L), Defense Minister Benny Gantz (C) and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu (R) (Flash90)
1. Arrival of Arab voters
There are three Arab lists participating in the current election, and their fate could seal the fate of the Lapid-led bloc. With Arab turnout expected to be lower than in previous rounds, the Arab vote could become a critical issue. The Ra’am Islamist party, a member of the outgoing coalition, would join a Lapid or Ganj government, while the Hadash-Ta’al alliance has historically formed a third, non-aligned wedge of seats not available to any bloc. Both are hovering near the electoral threshold and without significant turnout, they may collapse. The Palestinian nationalist Balad party is not expected to pass the minimum threshold of 3.25 percent of the vote, given 1.6 percent in the latest Channel 12 pre-election poll. Hadash-Ta’al in particular is nervous about its chances, making a rare appeal over the weekend to Jewish voters to vote “strategically” for the party and make sure it takes at least four seats on Tuesday. Joint List party chairman MK Ayman Odeh attends a meeting of the Internal Security Committee at the Knesset, in Jerusalem on December 13, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) About 17 percent of Israel’s nearly 6.8 million voters are Arab, according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Central Election Commission. Historically, Israel’s Arab community – including Muslims, Christians and Druze – have had lower turnout rates than Jewish voters. In the previous election, Arab turnout fell to an all-time low of just 44%, compared to 72% among Jewish voters and 67% overall. Low turnout meant reduced representation among Arab parties in the Knesset. In 2020, when the four Arab parties participated together in the Joint List, Arab representation reached a record 15 seats. In 2021, after Ra’am left the Joint List, they won only 10 collective seats between them. Now that the Joint List has been further broken down into Hadash-Ta’al and Balad, with Ra’am continuing to run a separate campaign, Arab participation has reached 37% and 48% in recent weeks. If either Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am failed to return to the Knesset, the Likud-led bloc would be expected to benefit proportionally and have opened a path to power. If both fell short, Netanyahu’s prospects would be even better. With both in the Knesset, it would open up an opportunity for Lapid to block the formation of another government. Likud claims it may even pursue a coalition that includes or relies on Hadash-Ta’al. Both Lapid and Hadash-Ta’al have dismissed this as a possible scenario. In the final days of the campaign, some analysts have argued that Arab turnout may turn out to be higher than polls suggest, with even Balad potentially closing in on clearing the Knesset’s 3.25 percent threshold. Previous elections have shown that pollsters have particular concern when it comes to predicting the Arab vote.
2. The turnout of Haredi voters
New concern about Haredi voter turnout has emerged in recent weeks as voters allied with the Ashkenazi Haredi party, United Torah Judaism, have grown disillusioned with the party’s leadership after a year in opposition. UTJ currently has seven seats and has repeatedly polled to return that number. Low voter turnout or losing votes to another right-wing party could reduce that number to six, a scenario that has caused much panic in Haredi political circles. However, only if the seat leaves the block will it affect the immediate impasse. Haredi voters account for 11% of the electorate, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics, and the bulk of their votes go to the UTJ and the Mizrahi Haredi Shas party. In the last election, Haredi voter turnout reached 80%. However, public broadcaster Kan reported that by mid-October, Haredi voter turnout was projected to drop by 12 percent. United Torah Judaism president Rabbi Yitzchak Goldknopf poses for a photo in Jerusalem on September 13, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) According to polls, the rise in popularity of Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben Gvir, especially among younger or more nationalist Haredi voters, has also drawn votes away from the party. About 6% of the Haredi vote can be transferred to religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit, according to Kan. That wouldn’t change the bloc’s math or ability to form a government, but it would change the power dynamics within that government if Haredi parties end up losing seats.
3. Former Yamina voters looking for a home
The former ruling party Yamina won seven seats under Naftali Bennett in 2021, unexpectedly propelling him to the prime ministership, but did not even go to the polls this November. The dissolution of the party has created some political refugees. Almost a third of Yamina voters in March 2021 identify as nationally religious and are generally among the moderate, mainstream version of the diverse national religious spectrum. He also drew part of his base from some secular right-wing and traditional voters. In contrast, 61% of the Religious Zionist party’s 2021 voters were nationally religious, and the party is seen as representing the hard-right end of that spectrum. Ayelet Shaked (center) and Yossi Brodny (R) at a Jewish Home campaign event in Givat Shmuel on September 20, 2022. (Flash90) Yamina’s legacy is now best represented by the Jewish Home and its leader, former Bennett deputy Ayelet Shaked. But the party has consistently struggled in the polls and managed only 1.5%-2% in the last major network polls over the weekend. While many former Yamina voters have migrated to Religious Zionism or another party on the right or center, a portion is still considering voting for Shaked. Shaked says Netanyahu needs her to pad the numbers for his government. Netanyahu’s camp claims it is jeopardizing the entire operation by burning right-wing votes as it exits the Knesset. If voters feel that hope is lost and abandon it, they may shrink the right’s lost votes and push Netanyahu within striking distance of a majority. If, on the other end, Shaked beats expectations to enter the Knesset, she could give Netanyahu extra seats — or keep them for him, should he wrest them from Likud in the first place.
4. Left parties sting at the threshold
Poor performances by two more parties in Lapid’s bloc could derail Netanyahu’s path to the election. The leftist Meretz and the centre-left Labor Party are approaching the threshold. Without much movement between blocs, much of Yesh Atid’s gradual rise in the polls during the months of the campaign came at the cost of cannibalizing its leftist partners. Meretz and Labor have made frantic last-minute efforts to get voters to turn out and vote for them, rather than expand the number of seats Lapid’s Yesh Atid hopes to take. If either Labor or Meretz leave the Knesset, polls predict a comfortable victory for Netanyahu. Labor leader Merav Michaeli summarily rejected Lapid’s attempts to unite her party and Meretz ahead of the September shortlist deadline, preferring to keep Labor as an independent body over what he perceived as providing a lifeline to Meretz. Will this decision come back to haunt her? Transport Minister Merav Michaeli holds a press conference in Tel Aviv on September 14, 2022. (Flash90)
5. And yes, the weather
Perhaps the most common factor, expected bad weather can limit the willingness of unmotivated voters to head to the polls. So much so that experts expect it could reduce turnout in some areas. Israelis must vote in person at that polling station…
