Philadelphia hasn’t lost at home in the postseason, but it’s safe to say they haven’t faced an opponent as formidable as Houston. Despite being away from home, MLB odds have the Astros listed as a moneyline betting favorite in Game 3. Our free MLB betting picks and predictions look at whether the Phillies can maintain their hometown dominance or whether the Astros are going to be unwelcome visitors.
Astros vs Phillies Game 3 odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
Astros vs Phillies picks and predictions
The Astros will win Game 3, but the question is whether it’s worth the juice to squeeze at -130 (or less) on the money line. Let’s break down our alternatives. The Astros’ -1.5 to +130 run line is enticing, especially when considering the pitching matchup. Despite seemingly being constantly plagued by injury issues, Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. is consistently excellent when he can get the puck up. He missed more than half the season recovering from a right forearm injury suffered during last year’s ALDS. The Astros were blessed with an extremely deep rotation, which afforded them the luxury of actually waiting until McCullers was ready to return and hadn’t shown any bad results from the extended absence. He finished at least five innings in all eight starts during the regular season and finished six or more in each of his last four. McCullers pitched a magnificent game against Seattle in the ALDS, allowing two hits in six scoreless innings. He was less effective against the Yankees, surrendering four runs (three earned) on eight hits in five frames. With pitchers largely taking hooks early this postseason, the books have adjusted at least a little, and the right-hander’s recorded strikeouts are set at 15.5 with vig at -120 on both ends on DraftKings. I was hoping to find a recorded prop for Phillies starter Noah Syndergaard, but that was probably foolish as Under would have been forgotten due to him bouncing between the bullpen and rotation and generally not being trusted. I also considered targeting Kyle Tucker to go steal a base (+450 on DraftKings) due to Syndergaard’s known problem holding baserunners, but with Thor unlikely to stick around for long, Tucker may not get more than one opportunities to get on base against him. And so I turn back to the running line. Houston’s lineup is very strong against a Syndergaard who doesn’t cause many whiffs. Thor, once a standout, came back down to earth in 2022 as he still dealt with pitches after Tommy John surgery in 2020. His 16.8 percentage was a career low by a country mile and the sensation percentage his was in the 11th percentile. And while he doesn’t get bored too badly (39th percentile in barrel rate), he has allowed hard contact in 34% of batted-ball games (79th percentile). Against a lineup that simply has no swing and miss, this could spell disaster, especially early on. And it’s a Houston scenario anyway. If Syndergaard retires Jose Altuve, he will have to deal with Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Tucker in turn. Of those hitters, only rookie Pena had a strikeout rate above 18.9%. Taking the Astros -0.5 through the first five innings at +105 is a safer pick than the overall run line, but I’m considering the full game because of the difference between these bullpens. Even if Syndergaard escapes relatively unscathed, he’s not likely to go deep based on recent performances and tonight’s opponent, setting the stage for a potential bullpen game. And while Phillies relievers have yet to allow two runs, it’s a ticking time bomb against an offense like this. The Philly relievers combined to post a 4.27 ERA (23rd in MLB) with the third-highest walk rate in the majors. I expect Houston to do some damage early against Syndergaard and keep their feet on the gas against this mirage of a bullpen. My best bet: Astros -1.5 (+130 at bet365) Best Astros vs Phillies Bonuses Want to bet on some World Series action? Here are two of the best bonuses available*: A) Kyle Tucker to hit a home run and Houston Astros win BOOSTED at +500 at Betway! Bet now B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus of up to $1,000! register now *Eligible US locations only. Also, check out our full list of the best sports betting deals for 2022.
Astros vs Phillies World Series Odds
Teams Odds to Win Series Houston Astros -170 Philadelphia Phillies +145
Astros vs Phillies money breakdown
The Astros opened as pretty significant favorites, which isn’t much of a surprise considering they entered the series without losing a game before winning Game 1 at Minute Maid Park. As of Sunday night, Houston -130 is the highest moneyline odds available, going as high as -150. The Phillies saw their odds reach +120 to start Monday’s game with Syndergaard. Although Thor’s reputation as a front-line starter — or a pitcher with that potential — hasn’t been that guy for quite some time. That’s not to say he wasn’t effective with Philadelphia, but he was closer to average than great. Syndergaard has thrown a total of 5 1-3 innings in three appearances during the postseason. One of those was a start against Atlanta where he allowed just one run on one hit, but was also limited to three innings and 35 pitches before Philadelphia turned to its bullpen. This highlights one of the most specific advantages the Astros have in this series: their pitching staff. Once the Phillies get past top starters Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, things start to get tough, especially if they aren’t willing to trust Syndergaard to go deep. So Philly would then have to rely on a bullpen that posted a 4.27 ERA in the regular season to go toe-to-toe against the Astros. By comparison, Houston’s bullpen had the best ERA in baseball at 2.80. Unless Syndergaard is truly unlucky, which is unlikely based on his performance since being acquired by the Angels in midseason, then the edge easily lies with Houston. Also, Thor is no longer missing at-bats at the elite level he showed before Tommy John surgery. He struck out just 95 batters in 134 2-3 innings. Against a lineup that creates a solid contact load, this is a recipe for disaster.
Astros vs Phillies Over/Under Analysis
The 8.0 total is likely to be inflated for two reasons. If Syndergaard does make his way into the bullpen, despite largely containing the Astros’ lineup through two games, it may be slower until the sixth inning. The first two games hovered around a 6.5 overall with the 7.0 yield due to the premiership — on paper, anyway — of the games. With McCullers going up against Syndergaard, this looks to have the makings of an early game due to the former missing most of the season working his way back from injury. But McCullers went at least five innings in all eight of his regular-season starts, going six or more in five of them. He struck out six against the Mariners and allowed four runs (three earned) in five innings against the Yankees in the ALDS. In other words, it doesn’t have a short leash like you might expect. However, the Astros’ relief corps is so good that Baker might not risk it if the game is close and McCullers shows signs of fatigue. Two top offenses in a row to pitch against bullpens – with Philly’s mediocre at best already – and the Over makes a certain amount of sense. However, I am not betting on the total. There is better value to be found in other markets.
Astros vs Phillies trend you need to know
Astros are 8-1 in their last nine playoff games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies
Astros vs Phillies game info
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA Date: Monday, October 31, 2022 First performance: 8:03 p.m. ET TV: FOX
Starting pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA): McCullers rejoined the Astros’ rotation in mid-August and simply made an already world-class pitching staff even better and deeper. He struggled with his legs early on, but has given up two or fewer free passes in three of his last four regular-season starts and allowed more than two runs in just one of his eight starts. Noah Syndergaard (5-2, 4.12 ERA): Syndergaard’s tenure with the Phillies — and, to a lesser extent, the Angels — has to be viewed as a disappointment. This is a guy who was one of the top performers in baseball before missing all of 2020 and most of 2021 with Tommy John. At 5.1 K/9 with Philadelphia, he no longer lacks at-bats at an elite level.
The latest Astros vs Phillies injuries
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Astros vs Phillies Game 3 odds and bets
Game 3 run line Astros -1.5 (+130) / Phillies +1.5 (-150) Game 3 moneyline Astros -130 / Phillies +110 Game 3 total Over 8 (+100)/ Under 8 (-120 ) First Score/Score Astros (-185) / Phillies (+135) One Run in First Inning Yes (-105) / No (-125) Extra Innings Yes (+750) / No (-1,200) Astros Total Runs Over 4.5 (+115) / Under 4.5 (-145) Phillies Total Runs Over 3.5 (-105) / Under 3.5 (-125)
