The Likud party has yet to perform as expected, but a surge in support for its new far-right allies, the Religious Zionists, and what appears to be a poor showing for two pro-Arab rights parties and the leftist Meretz party, means that the scandal-plagued former leader is currently the most likely candidate to form a government after Tuesday’s election. Netanyahu’s main rival, current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, insisted the race was not yet over, telling his supporters on Wednesday morning that “until the last envelope is counted, nothing is over and nothing is final.” With votes in the left-leaning city of Tel Aviv yet to be counted, his broad anti-Netanyahu camp, which managed to oust the former leader from power last year, was set to win just 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. exit polls are suggested. Final results may change as votes are counted. In Israel’s fragmented politics, no party wins a parliamentary majority and coalition building is essential to governance. Negotiations between the parties can take weeks. As with the four previous elections since 2019, Tuesday’s poll was largely a one-issue vote on whether the disgraced Netanyahu is fit for office. Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up 20% of Israel’s population, were predicted to be a decisive factor in blocking his return to power. This time their vote was split between three different factions, meaning many votes were lost. Speaking hours after the exit poll was released, suggesting a narrow majority for his camp, Netanyahu said his right-wing religious bloc was “alive and kicking”. “We are on the verge of a very big victory,” Netanyahu told supporters at Likud party headquarters. “The people want strength, not weakness.” Prime Minister Yair Lapid did not admit it and told his supporters that he “will continue to fight for Israel to be a Jewish and democratic, liberal and progressive state.” The night’s strongest showing came from Netanyahu’s new partners, the far-right Religious Zionists, who emerged as the third largest party. The party’s leading candidate, Itamar Ben-Gvir, celebrated at an all-male campaign rally in Jerusalem, where supporters waved Israeli flags and chanted “Death to terrorists”. Itamar Ben Gvir’s Religious Zionist party looks poised to record its biggest ever vote share. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images The Religious Zionists appear to be on an unprecedented run, with 13 or 14 seats, up from six in the 2021 vote. A boost in support for the right-wing party could be key to pushing Netanyahu to a third term as prime minister. Ben-Gvir is a former follower of the banned terrorist group Kach, with a conviction for inciting racism. He has promised to support legislation that would change the legal code, which could help Netanyahu avoid a conviction in his corruption trial. Netanyahu has faced accusations that he gave preferential treatment to a major Israeli telecommunications company in exchange for positive articles on its news website and that he received gifts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars from wealthy friends. As a senior figure in a right-wing coalition government, Ben-Gvir has said he would press for the expulsion of “disloyal” Palestinian citizens of Israel. The apparent success of the far-right party makes peace with the Palestinians less likely than ever and sets the stage for potential conflict with Israel’s international partners. The United States and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly warned the Likud that giving ministerial roles to the Religious Zionists would damage bilateral relations. Netanyahu, however, said such a choice cannot be made by outsiders.
