Comment Despite its furious reaction to Saudi Arabia’s decision last month to cut oil production in the face of global shortages and threats of retaliation, the Biden administration is looking for signs that the close, long-standing security relationship between Washington and Riyadh can be salvaged. These ties and the commitment to help protect its strategic partners—particularly against Iran—are an integral part of US defense in the Middle East. When recent intelligence reports warned of imminent Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, the US Central Command launched warplanes based in the Persian Gulf region towards Iran as part of a general state of alert for US forces and Saudi Arabia. The clash of jets, sent as an armed show of force and not previously reported, was the latest illustration of the strength and importance of a partnership the administration said it is now reviewing. “There will be some consequences for what they’ve done,” President Biden said after the Saudis agreed last month, at a meeting of the OPEC Plus energy cartel they chair, to cut output by 2 million barrels a day. The cuts only serve to drive up prices, the White House charged, and would benefit cartel member Russia just as the United States and its allies have been trying to choke Moscow’s oil revenue to reduce the war in Ukraine. In the angry days that followed, the Saudis publicly reacted to the government’s request to delay the cuts by a month, indirectly suggesting that Biden wanted to avoid higher prices at the gas pump ahead of the upcoming US midterm elections. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby let it slip to reporters that the Saudis were trying to “turn” US concerns about Ukraine and global energy stability into a domestic political ploy and deflect criticism of the fence into Russia’s war. Many lawmakers, some of whom have long advocated cutting ties with the Saudis, reacted with even more outrage, calling for the immediate withdrawal of thousands of US troops stationed in the kingdom and an end to all arms sales, among other punitive measures. But the White House, as it ponders how to deliver on Biden’s pledge of “consequences” and despite his continued fury, has grown concerned about the backlash his strong response has provoked at home. Instead of moving quickly to respond, he is playing for time, looking for ways to bring the Saudis back into line while maintaining strong bilateral security ties. “Are we breaking the relationship? No,” said a senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of a sensitive political and diplomatic situation. “We had a fundamental disagreement about the state of the oil market and the global economy, and we’re looking at what happened.” “But we have significant interests in this relationship,” the official said. Saudi Arabia’s oil and influence on the world market is second only to US strategic interests in the Persian Gulf, where the kingdom plays a central role, notably in countering Iranian aggression. The White House, which confirmed a Wall Street Journal report on the recent Iranian threat and was on high alert, declined to comment on the launch of US warplanes. “Centcom is committed to our long-standing strategic military partnership with Saudi Arabia,” said administration spokesman Joe Buccio. “We will not discuss operational details.” The United States maintains significant air assets in the region, including F-22 fighter jets in Saudi Arabia, although the location from which they were scrambled was not clear. Only about 6% of US oil imports now come from Saudi Arabia. China is the kingdom’s largest trading partner, and trade ties with Russia have expanded. But security and intelligence ties are a linchpin of US-Saudi relations, and defense officials in Washington are unsettled by what the current turmoil might mean. Major US deployments there ended after the 2003 invasion of Iraq and there have been repeated bilateral tensions in recent years, including human rights concerns over the Saudi-led war in Yemen and the killing of journalist and regime critic Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 by Saudi agents, US resident and Washington Post columnist. There are about 2,500 US forces now in Saudi Arabia, many of them involved in high-tech intelligence operations and training. The United States is the supplier of nearly three-quarters of all weapons systems used by the Saudi military, including parts, repairs and upgrades that are constantly needed. Military sales to the kingdom have been the subject of repeated controversy in recent years, as many in Congress have opposed them. While President Donald Trump, who has boasted of potential billions in US sales to the Saudis, has vetoed congressional efforts to halt specific deals, Biden banned the kingdom from buying US offensive weapons shortly after taking office. Since then, there have been two major purchases from Saudi Arabia of air-to-air missiles and replacement missiles for Patriot air defense batteries. Another order for 300 Patriot missiles — at more than $3 million per unit — was approved by the State Department in August, after Biden visited the kingdom, where he reportedly believed he had cemented a deal with the crown prince not to cut oil production. . Although Congress did not formally object to the new sale within a 30-day deadline, there has been no public indication that the next step in the transaction — a signed contract with the Defense Department — has taken place. The Pentagon has “nothing to announce at this time” about the sale, spokesman Lt. Col. Cesar Santiago said Friday. In a reflection of the current level of fury in Congress, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said last month that all arms sales to Saudi Arabia should be halted and that all Patriot systems there should be removed and sent to Ukraine. “If Saudi Arabia is unwilling to side with Ukraine and the US over Russia, why keep these Patriots in Saudi Arabia when Ukraine and our NATO allies need them,” Murphy tweeted. While two U.S.-controlled Patriot systems remain in Saudi Arabia to protect U.S. personnel from missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels and possibly Iran, most of the systems in use there were purchased years ago by the Saudis and they belong to the kingdom. Biden has said he wants to consult with lawmakers about the promised “consequences,” and while strong statements from lawmakers back up his threat, the current congressional recess also gives the administration some breathing room. The most vocal objections to normal relations with the kingdom have come from Democrats. Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (Cont.) last month introduced a bill to freeze all US arms sales to Saudi Arabia until they reconsider oil production cuts. “The Saudis need to come to their senses,” Blumenthal said in announcing the measure. “The only apparent purpose of this cut in oil supplies is to help the Russians and hurt the Americans.” A separate bill from a trio of House Democrats, led by Rep. Tom Malinowski (NJ), would require the removal of US troops from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Sen. Robert Menendez (DN.J.), the powerful chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a statement last month saying “the United States must immediately freeze all aspects of our cooperation with Saudi Arabia” and vowed that we will “not give the green light to any cooperation with Riyadh until the kingdom reassesses its position in relation to the war in Ukraine.” Most Republicans who have taken a position on the issue said Biden should use the opportunity of the cuts to increase domestic oil production, although the United States is already pumping about a million barrels a day more than when Biden took office. power. So far, the administration has given no indication of what, if any, punitive measures it might consider in reviewing the relationship and appears in no rush to make a decision. “There’s no need to rush,” Kirby said last week. Meanwhile, officials have highlighted steps the Saudis say are aimed at assuaging US anger and showing they are not leaning towards Russia. “Our displeasure has already been clearly stated and is already having an impact,” the senior official said. “We’ve seen the Saudis react in ways that are constructive.” In addition to Saudi Arabia’s vote in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution last month condemning Russia’s illegal annexation of four regions of Ukraine, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, called President Volodymyr Zelensky to tell him that Saudi Arabia would contribute $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, far more than the single previous donation of $10 million in April. The Saudis actively supported a recent truce in Yemen that was championed by the Biden administration. And after years of U.S. efforts to persuade Gulf states to adopt a regional missile defense system against Iran that the Saudis have long resisted, the administration believes it is finally making progress. Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken said this was still not enough. Speaking last week to Bloomberg News, he called the UN vote and Ukraine’s donation “positive developments,” though “they do not compensate [for] the decision made by OPEC Plus on production’. But the more time that passes, the more likely Saudi Arabia will be to patch things up and moderate any US response. A key indicator is likely to come next month, when the European Union plans to ban seaborne imports of Russian crude oil – followed by a ban on all Russian oil products two months…
