Show only key events Please enable JavaScript to use this feature A reminder of how Brazil’s electoral system works: Brazil’s president is elected directly by the 156 million voters. there is no electorate and no role for the legislature. A candidate needs more than 50% of the vote to be elected. If this does not happen in the first round, the top two candidates will go to a second round of elections at the end of the month. UC Berkley sociology professor Daniel Cohen to Lula’s supporters: Obviously we should be careful with polls, but I wanted to point out this incredible recent finding: Lula only leads Bolsonaro in the polls among Brazilians earning less than twice the minimum wage. But it leads so much to the poor, that it excels the rest. pic.twitter.com/quJkbWQwDh — Daniel Aldana Cohen (@aldatweets) October 3, While we wait for Lula to speak in Sao Paulo, here are some photos from the evening: A Lula supporter cries at the end of general election day at Largo da Prainha on October 2, 2022 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Photo: Buda Mendes/Getty Images A supporter of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva listens to partial results after the polls close in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 2, 2022. Photo: Silvia Izquierdo/APSupporterd of the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, running for another term, walk through Brasilia, Brazil, on October 2, 2022. Photo: Ton Molina/AP In case you’re just joining us: former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (known as Lula) of the leftist Workers’ Party won the most votes in Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, but not enough to avoid a runoff against his rightful opponent, the current president Jair Bolsonaro. With more than 98% of the vote counted, Lula had 48% of the vote – short of just over 50% needed to secure an outright victory. Updated at 01.55 BST Brazil’s electoral authority has confirmed that Brazilians will vote in the second round of elections on October 30. From Reuters global climate correspondent Jake Spring: — Jake Spring (@jakespring) October 2, 2022 From the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips: How a Bolsonaro activist in northeastern Brazil describes the results to supporters. “We have so much to celebrate,” he writes pic.twitter.com/UHmLBRVaUy — Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsin) October 2, 2022 Tom Phillips Tiago Ambaro, an academic and columnist for the newspaper Folha de São Paulo, said the strongest-than-predicted showing by the right showed that Bolsonaro and Bolsonarism were “alive and kicking”. “There was a feeling among the left that Lula had a chance to win in the first round … the results show that it was wishful thinking to imagine that the election would serve as a way to punish Bolsonaro for his disastrous policies during pandemic. “ “I feel exhausted,” Amparo added. “But the results show that we have no time to rest now. It’s time to take to the streets… or we’ll have a very dark future again.” Tom Phillips More on tonight’s result: “I think Bolsonaro has the momentum,” said Thomas Trauman, a political observer based in Rio de Janeiro, although he believed Lula was still the favorite. “It’s a very disappointing night for the left.” Bolsonaro is also accused of wreaking havoc on the environment and catastrophically mishandling a Covid outbreak that has killed nearly 700,000 Brazilians, undermining vaccination and containment efforts and negotiating cures for bad weather. “It was a tragedy for a joke,” restaurant hostess Gabriela Leoncio said of Bolsonaro’s administration as she voted for Lula on Sunday morning in Sao Paulo. Still, Bolsonaro confounded pollsters’ predictions in several key states, including Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Prominent Bolsonaros were elected to Brazil’s Congress and as state governors, including Bolsonaro’s former health minister Eduardo Pazuelo, who became a member of the Rio Congress, and former environment minister Ricardo Salles. Rio’s pro-Bolsonaro governor, Claudio Castro, was re-elected while one of Bolsonaro’s most controversial former ministers, evangelical preacher Damares Alves, ran for a seat in the Senate. Tarcísio de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s candidate for governor of Sao Paulo, also fared better than pollsters predicted and will face Lula ally Fernando Haddad in a runoff. There was opposition from Lula and his allies as right-wing successes and the need for a second round became clear.
Lula wins a vote but not a clear victory
Tom Phillips Brazil’s tight presidential race will go into a second round after former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva failed to secure the overall majority needed to avoid a runoff with far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. With 97% of the votes counted, the left-wing veteran had secured 47.88% of the vote, not enough to avoid an October 30 showdown with his right-wing opponent. Bolsonaro, who significantly beat pollsters’ predictions and will be buoyed by the result, received 43.68%. Speaking on the eve of the election, Lula said he hoped for a first-round victory but would redouble his efforts to regain power if a second round was needed. “I feel very hopeful that this election will be decided tomorrow, but if it is not, we will have to behave like a football team when a game goes into extra time. We will rest for 15 minutes and then we will go back on the pitch to score the goals we didn’t score in normal time,” he told reporters. The election result was a blow to progressive Brazilians who had been rooting for an emphatic victory against Bolsonaro, a former army chief who has repeatedly attacked the country’s democratic institutions and vandalized Brazil’s international reputation. Updated at 01.38 BST We’re almost there – Lula at least seems certain to have won this round. But a runoff against Bolsonaro is almost guaranteed at this point. We’ll bring you Lula’s speech tonight as it happens. The Guardian’s Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips waits to hear from Lula after a disappointing night. With almost 97% of the votes counted, we are likely to know the result within half an hour. We expect Lula to address the media soon, once the election result is confirmed. A bleak night for the left in many ways, with back-to-back Bolsonaro victories and a tighter result than the polls predicted. The pollsters said 50/36. Looks like it ends 48/43 pic.twitter.com/DVZCLxmjoe — Tom Phillips (@tomphillipsin) October 3, 2022 Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening tonight, via the Associated Press. It looks increasingly likely that neither of the top two candidates in Brazil’s national election will receive more than 50% of valid votes, which exclude spoiled and blank ballots, meaning a runoff is scheduled for October 30. “We will probably have a second round,” said Nara Pavão, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco. “The chance that the election will end now (in the first round) is very small.” “The far right has shown great resilience in presidential and state races,” said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo. “It’s too early to go too deep, but this election shows that Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 was not a hiccup,” he added. Bolsonaro outperformed in Brazil’s southeastern region, which includes the populous states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, according to Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risk at consultancy Tendencias Consultoria. “The polls didn’t pick up on that growth,” Cortez said. With the counting nearly over, a first-round victory looks out of reach for Lula, meaning he is likely to face Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff. A victory for Lula in this round is by no means assured. Political economist Filipe Campante: To my non-Brazilian fans: make no mistake, the odds look much bleaker for Brazilian democracy right now than they did 24 hours ago. Bolsonaro will have a real chance to win the second round, and in that case we are in deep trouble. — Filipe Campante (@FilipeCampante) October 2, 2022 Andrew Downie reports for the Guardian from Sao Paulo: Two big Senate wins in southern Brazil for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. In the state of Paraná, Sergio Moro won the election with 33.6% of the vote and in Rio Grande do Sul, Hamilton Murao, also with 44.3%. A former army general, Mourão was Bolsonaro’s vice president, while Moro was the judge who spearheaded the Car Wash investigation that led to Lula’s 2017 jailing. Bolsonaro appointed Moro as justice minister, but his image as an anti-corruption crusader was damaged when several higher courts overturned his decision to jail Lula and freed the former president. An investigation by The Intercept found that Moro colluded with prosecutors to prejudice Lula’s defense. He tried to run for president, but his campaign never got off the ground, and after constant talks with parties in at least two different states, he chose to run for Senate in his home state. Mourão, meanwhile, defeated PT veteran Olivio Dutra, former governor of Rio Grande do Sul. Lula now leads by almost 4% – but has not secured enough votes to avoid a runoff with Bolsonaro. And the countdown is almost over.
