Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva has been elected Brazil’s next president, in a stunning comeback after a hard-fought run-off on Sunday. His victory heralds a political face-off for Latin America’s largest country, after four years of far-right rule by Jair Bolsonaro.
The 76-year-old politician’s victory represents the left’s return to power in Brazil and completes a triumphant personal comeback for Lula da Silva, after a series of corruption allegations led to him being jailed for 580 days. The sentences were later overturned by the Supreme Court, paving the way for his re-election.
“They tried to bury me alive and I’m here,” he said in a jubilant address to supporters and reporters on Sunday night, describing the victory as his political “resurrection”.
“From January 1, 2023, I will govern for the 215 million Brazilians, not just those who voted for me. There are no two Brazils. We are one country, one people, one great nation,” Lula da Silva also said.
This will be his third term, having previously ruled Brazil for two consecutive terms between 2003 and 2010.
The former leader’s victory on Sunday was the latest in a political wave across Latin America, with left-wing politicians winning in Argentina, Colombia and Chile. But Lula da Silva – a former union leader with a blue collar background – tried to reassure moderates throughout his campaign.
He has built a broad coalition that includes several politicians from the center and center-right, including historic rivals from the PSDB, Brazil’s Social Democratic Party. Among those politicians is his vice president, former São Paulo governor Heraldo Alcmin, who has been cited by the Lula camp as a guarantor of moderation in his administration.
In the run-up to the election, Lula da Silva was reluctant to show his cards when it came to outlining an economic strategy – a trend that drew sharp criticism from his rivals. “Who is the Minister of Economy of the other candidate? It doesn’t exist, it doesn’t say. What will be his political and economic path? More state? Less state? We don’t know…,” Bolsonaro said during a live YouTube broadcast on October 22.
Lula da Silva has said he will push Congress to pass a tax reform that would exempt low-income earners from paying income tax. And his campaign received a boost from centrist former presidential candidate Simon Tebet, who came third in the first round earlier this month and gave Lula da Silva her support in the second round. Known for her ties to Brazil’s agricultural industry, Tebet told a press conference on Oct. 7 that Lula da Silva and his economic team “received and had incorporated all the proposals from our program into his government’s program.”
It has also received the support of several renowned economists highly regarded by investors, including Arminio Fraga, former president of the Central Bank of Brazil.
Lula da Silva received over 60 million votes, the most in Brazilian history, breaking his own record from 2006.
However, despite the huge turnout of his supporters, his victory was by a narrow margin – Lula da Silva won 50.90% of the vote and Bolsonaro received 49.10%, according to Brazil’s electoral authority.
His biggest challenge now may be unifying a politically divided country.
Hours after the results were announced, Bolsonaro had yet to admit defeat or make any public statement. Meanwhile, videos on social media showed his supporters blocking highways in two states to protest Lula da Silva’s victory.
“We will only leave when the army takes over the country,” an unidentified Bolsonaro supporter said in a video shot in the southern state of Santa Catarina.
Lula da Silva will need to continue dialogue and rebuild relationships, said Carlos Mello, a political scientist at Insper, a university in Sao Paulo. “The president can be an important tool for that, as long as he’s not just interested in appealing to his voter base,” he said.
With more than 58 million votes for his rival Bolsonaro – who had been endorsed by former US President Donald Trump – Lula da Silva will have to form “realistic alliances” with sections of the center and right who have bought into his politics his predecessor, he adds. Thiago Amparo, professor of law and human rights at the FGV business school in São Paulo.
At the same time, it should meet the expectations of the fans, Amparo added. “Many voters went to the polls expecting this, not just to get rid of Bolsonaro, but with memories of better economic times during previous Lula governments.”
Many will be watching for potential change in the 2017 Labor Reform Act, which negotiated more employee rights and benefits with employers and made union dues optional. Lula da Silva had previously said he would revoke the act, but recently changed the verb to “review” after criticism from the private sector.
He may find that implementing his agenda is an uphill battle, Amparo warns, especially with a hostile Congress. Seats that came from the traditional right are now occupied by the far right, which is not open to negotiation and not easily dealt with, Amparo points out.
In the last election, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party increased its representatives in the Lower House from 76 to 99, while in the Senate it doubled from seven to 14. Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party also increased its number of deputies from 56 to 68 and senators from seven to eight – but overall, conservative-leaning politicians will dominate the next parliament.
This friction will require some compromises, points out Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the Cebrap think tank. “[Bolsonaro’s] The Liberal Party will have the largest number of representatives and important allies and will make real opposition to the government, [Lula da Silva’s] The Labor Party should sow a coalition with [traditional rightwing party] União Brasil to govern, which means negotiating ministries and key positions,” Rocha told CNN.
Meanwhile, environmentalists will be watching Lula da Silva’s administration closely as he takes charge not only of the Brazilian nation but also of the planet’s largest forest reserves.
In an interview with foreign press in August, Lula da Silva called for “a new global governance” to tackle climate change and stressed that Brazil should take a central role in that governance, given its natural resources.
According to Lula da Silva’s head of government planning, Aloizio Mercadante, another tactic will be to create a group including Brazil, Indonesia and Congo ahead of the UN-led Conference of the Parties in November 2022. The group will aim to pressure wealthier countries to fund forest protection as well as outline strategies for the global carbon market.
Several experts told CNN they believe his stance on the environment and climate could be a new beginning in Brazil’s international relations.
“We can expect a government that will return to talking to the people, especially with a new attitude in the environmental sector,” said Melo, the Insper researcher.
