Figures from the Center for European Reform show that by the end of last year, the economy was 5% – or 31 31 billion – smaller than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. ITV News Business and Economics editor Joel Hills reports. It’s five in the morning and the auction at Brixham Fish Market is in progress. Ian Perkes is looking for scallops, scallops, turbot and cuttlefish to send to his clients, most of whom are based in the European Union. Today, in order to export fish to the EU, you have to fill out forms. Ian estimates that the requirement to complete customs declarations, export health certificates and VAT returns costs his business 300 300 a day. He shows me a photo of Boris Johnson visiting the fish market in August 2019, less than six months before the United Kingdom left the EU Customs Union and its single market. Ian Perkes with Boris Johnson in 2019 Credits: Ian Perkes “He told me that my business would grow,” says Ian. “Brexit means we have to work harder for less money, we have to hire extra staff for the manager. “I was the first to raise my hands to say that I was sorry I voted to leave Europe. I wish we were still in it. “ The decision to leave the European Union has undoubtedly given greater political freedoms. The United Kingdom has been able to implement immigration reforms and a rapid release of vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic. The financial benefits are much harder to recognize, indeed the financial damage caused by Brexit is becoming clearer. The Center for European Reform (CER) modeled the financial performance of a UK that remained in the EU – using data from countries such as the US, Germany, New Zealand, Norway and Australia – whose performance was similar to ours. before Brexit. He then compared it to the real performance of the UK economy since the referendum six years ago. CER concludes that by the end of last year our economy was 5.2%, or 31 31 billion £, less than it would have been if we had stayed in the EU. Business and government investment was 13.7% lower. trade in goods 13.6% lower. although trade in services was 7.9% higher. “Disconnecting the financial implications of Brexit and Covid-19 is difficult. “But now that most advanced economies have surpassed their pre-pandemic production levels, we have a benchmark for the UK economy,” said Ian Springford, CER. Mr Springford explains why he believes the UK’s financial problems are due to Brexit, not Covid Springford claims that a significant gap between the UK and the doppelgänger economy had opened before the pandemic struck and that by the end of 2021 most economies had reopened and the worst of the pandemic was over. “The UK lifted its restrictions about six weeks earlier than many European countries with which I compare the UK and had a much more successful vaccination attempt, one would expect [UK GDP] to have recovered faster, but is still quite low “. CER analysis shows that Brexit has cost the United Kingdom billions of pounds in lost trade, lost investment and lost tax revenue. This is money that the country could really make with in a period of rising national debt and declining living standards. At the Conservative Party Conference last October, the prime minister promised that the UK was on track to become a high-wage, high-productivity, low-tax economy. Evidence shows that Brexit, so far, is doing the opposite. “If the economy is 5% smaller than it would be otherwise, then we are all 5% poorer. “It also means that taxes need to be raised to fund the same quality of public services we had before,” said Springford. “This is the background to the chancellor’s decision to increase the total tax [burden] at levels we have not seen since the 1960s. “ Do you want a quick and specific update on the biggest news? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out what you need to know Back in Brixham, which overwhelmingly voted in favor of leaving the EU, not everyone shares Ian Perkes’ remorse. For Karon Morris, who sells seafood on the beach, the priority was political independence, not economic growth. “We take responsibility for our country and for our laws, they would always exist [economic] “Teething problems,” he told me. “How long have we been in Europe? “You have to wait for some upset.” The UK economy has been hit by a series of shocks in recent years. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine are the main causes of the violent cost of living pressure we are facing now. But the financial cost of Brexit is also becoming clearer and more difficult for the government to reject. At present, there are few signs of widespread frustration among those who believed in the vision of Boris Johnson and others who sold them six years ago. Ian Perkes seems to be a minority.
