Their comments follow Xi’s speech at the opening of the Chinese Communist Party’s national congress on Sunday. There were few surprises in Xi’s nearly two-hour speech, where he outlined his vision for the country over the next five years, analysts said. Xi is widely expected to consolidate his leadership for an unprecedented third term during the weekly meeting. There was, however, one key element in Xi’s speech, said Dylan Loh, a foreign policy professor and China expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. Unlike previous speeches, Xi made it clear that China needed to prepare for growing external challenges, Loh said. In addition, the Chinese leader’s call for the party to “build a socialist modern power by 2049” indicates “his determination to resist external pressures and lead China on the party’s own path,” the political risk consultancy said. , Eurasia Group.
Absolute parliamentary majority
The importance of self-reliance has been heightened since Xi revamped the so-called “dual traffic” policy, Eswar Prasad, a professor of international trade and economics at Cornell University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. The dual circulation strategy first emerged in 2020 when a Chinese Politburo meeting called for more focus on domestic markets, or “domestic circulation,” to support China’s growth. The strategy involves less reliance on export-led growth or trade without abandoning it entirely. In a nearly two-hour speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping outlined his vision for the country over the next five years. The Chinese leader is widely expected to consolidate his leadership for an unprecedented third term during the weekly meeting. Lintao Zhang | News Getty Images “Certainly, Chinese leaders have taken very careful note of what’s been going on in the Ukraine war and what kind of stranglehold the West has been able to put on Russia, and of course, there’s a sense of great power competition between the U.S. and China as well,” Prasad said. “So that concept of self-reliance, especially in the context of technology … trying to be less dependent on the rest of the world, whether it’s for export markets or technology or imports of any kind. That’s clearly going to be a key pillar.” Xi Jinping has made it very clear what his intentions are: he wants a private sector that is controlled, that is manageable. Eswar Prasad Professor of International Trade & Economics at Cornell University To get there, Prasad said Beijing’s control over China’s private sector would increase rather than head toward the other end of the spectrum, allowing for more market-oriented reforms. He said Xi’s speech, consistent with Beijing’s comments in recent months, suggested the government sees a state-dominated economy as the path to stability. “Xi Jinping has made it very clear what his intentions are: he wants a private sector that is controlled, manageable.” This strategy is ongoing, given Beijing’s past intervention in China’s education and property sectors. As such, there will likely be a reshuffle in Xi’s cabinet by the end of this week’s meeting, including possible changes at the People’s Bank of China, in addition to the expected replacement of Premier Li Keqiang, who is due to retire in March, said the Prasad. . But it doesn’t matter who the new prime minister or cabinet members are, as Xi has made it clear he will pull all the strings, according to Prasad.
China-Taiwan tensions
Other observers, such as Bilahari Kausikan, a former permanent secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Xi did not wish to take Taiwan by force, even though he said in his speech that China “will never promise to renounce the use of force ». China views self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory, and tensions between the two flared recently when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in August despite warnings from Beijing. “I really don’t think the Chinese are very willing to start something to reunify Taiwan by force … because if you start it you have to win,” Kaushikan said. “I don’t think any Chinese leader can survive an aggressive attempt on Taiwan the way Putin crushed Ukraine. And I don’t think they have the capacity yet.”
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Lyle J. Morris, senior fellow for foreign policy and national security at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, agreed. “Xi is not signaling to the international community that he wants to invade Taiwan or that he is running out of patience for political reconciliation,” he said, noting that peaceful reunification is still Xi’s operative phrase. “He referred to outside powers very early in his speech, so clearly the US factor is front and center in his mind.
Sticking to China’s Zero Covid policy
Asked if he was surprised that Xi stood firm on China’s zero-Covid policies to the desperation of businesses hoping the country would reopen, Bilahari said Xi was driven by party and political logic secondary to economic logic. “Abandoning it suddenly would be admitting it was wrong … it will gradually unfold over the next two years without ever admitting it failed,” Bilahari told CNBC. Loh from Singapore’s NTU said adhering to zero-Covid policies had other practical implications. The Chinese medical infrastructure needs to be reformed to be able to deal with a larger number of infections. “The easiest, fastest, and in some ways, surest method to prevent Covid deaths from spiraling out of control is a zero-Covid policy. I expect some tweaks at the implementation level, but probably nothing beyond that. “, he said.
title: “China S Xi Warns Of Intervention In Taiwan No Quick Invasion Expected Analysts " ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-11” author: “Peggy Owens”
Their comments follow Xi’s speech at the opening of the Chinese Communist Party’s national congress on Sunday. There were few surprises in Xi’s nearly two-hour speech, where he outlined his vision for the country over the next five years, analysts said. Xi is widely expected to consolidate his leadership for an unprecedented third term during the weekly meeting. There was, however, one key element in Xi’s speech, said Dylan Loh, a foreign policy professor and China expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. Unlike previous speeches, Xi made it clear that China needed to prepare for growing external challenges, Loh said. In addition, the Chinese leader’s call for the party to “build a socialist modern power by 2049” indicates “his determination to resist external pressures and lead China on the party’s own path,” the political risk consultancy said. , Eurasia Group.
Absolute parliamentary majority
The importance of self-reliance has been heightened since Xi revamped the so-called “dual traffic” policy, Eswar Prasad, a professor of international trade and economics at Cornell University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. The dual circulation strategy first emerged in 2020 when a Chinese Politburo meeting called for more focus on domestic markets, or “domestic circulation,” to support China’s growth. The strategy involves less reliance on export-led growth or trade without abandoning it entirely. In a nearly two-hour speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping outlined his vision for the country over the next five years. The Chinese leader is widely expected to consolidate his leadership for an unprecedented third term during the weekly meeting. Lintao Zhang | News Getty Images “Certainly, Chinese leaders have taken very careful note of what’s been going on in the Ukraine war and what kind of stranglehold the West has been able to put on Russia, and of course, there’s a sense of great power competition between the U.S. and China as well,” Prasad said. “So that concept of self-reliance, especially in the context of technology … trying to be less dependent on the rest of the world, whether it’s for export markets or technology or imports of any kind. That’s clearly going to be a key pillar.” Xi Jinping has made it very clear what his intentions are: he wants a private sector that is controlled, that is manageable. Eswar Prasad Professor of International Trade & Economics at Cornell University To get there, Prasad said Beijing’s control over China’s private sector would increase rather than head toward the other end of the spectrum, allowing for more market-oriented reforms. He said Xi’s speech, consistent with Beijing’s comments in recent months, suggested the government sees a state-dominated economy as the path to stability. “Xi Jinping has made it very clear what his intentions are: he wants a private sector that is controlled, manageable.” This strategy is ongoing, given Beijing’s past intervention in China’s education and property sectors. As such, there will likely be a reshuffle in Xi’s cabinet by the end of this week’s meeting, including possible changes at the People’s Bank of China, in addition to the expected replacement of Premier Li Keqiang, who is due to retire in March, said the Prasad. . But it doesn’t matter who the new prime minister or cabinet members are, as Xi has made it clear he will pull all the strings, according to Prasad.
China-Taiwan tensions
Other observers, such as Bilahari Kausikan, a former permanent secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Xi did not wish to take Taiwan by force, even though he said in his speech that China “will never promise to renounce the use of force ». China views self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory, and tensions between the two flared recently when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in August despite warnings from Beijing. “I really don’t think the Chinese are very willing to start something to reunify Taiwan by force … because if you start it you have to win,” Kaushikan said. “I don’t think any Chinese leader can survive a botched attempt on Taiwan the way Putin crushed Ukraine. And I don’t think they have the capacity yet.”
Read more about China from CNBC Pro
Lyle J. Morris, senior fellow for foreign policy and national security at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, agreed. “Xi is not signaling to the international community that he wants to invade Taiwan or that he is running out of patience for political reconciliation,” he said, noting that peaceful reunification is still Xi’s operative phrase. “He referred to outside powers very early in his speech, so clearly the US factor is front and center in his mind.
Sticking to China’s Zero Covid policy
Asked if he was surprised that Xi stood firm on China’s zero-Covid policies in the desperation of businesses hoping the country would reopen, Bilahari said Xi was driven by party and political logic secondary to economic logic. “Abandoning it abruptly would be admitting it was a mistake … it will gradually unfold over the next two years without ever admitting it failed,” Bilahari told CNBC. Loh from Singapore’s NTU said adhering to zero-Covid policies had other practical implications. The Chinese medical infrastructure needs to be reformed to be able to deal with a larger number of infections. “The easiest, fastest, and in some ways, surest method to prevent Covid deaths from spiraling out of control is a zero-Covid policy. I expect some tweaks at the implementation level, but probably nothing beyond that. “, he said.
