As world leaders converge on Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh for the UN’s annual climate summit, researchers, advocates and the UN itself are warning that the world is still way off track to its goal of stopping global warming of the planet and prevent the worst consequences of the climate crisis.
Over the next two weeks, negotiators from nearly 200 countries will push each other at COP27 to raise their clean energy ambitions, as the average global temperature has already risen 1.2 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution.
They will bargain to end the use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, which has seen a resurgence in some countries amid the war in Ukraine, and try to find a system to channel money to help the world’s poorest nations recover from the destructive climate disasters.
But a flurry of recent reports have made it clear that leaders are running out of time to implement the massive energy overhaul needed to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the threshold scientists have warned the planet must stay below. .
Reports from the United Nations and the World Meteorological Union show that carbon and methane emissions will reach record levels in 2021, and the plans that countries have submitted to reduce these emissions are beyond inadequate. Given current pledges by countries, Earth’s temperature will rise between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Ultimately, the world must cut fossil fuel emissions by nearly half by 2030 to avoid 1.5 degrees, a terrifying prospect for economies still dependent on oil, gas and coal.
“No country has the right to be delinquent,” US climate envoy John Kerry told reporters in October. “Scientists are telling us that what is happening now – increased extreme heat, extreme weather, fires, floods, warming oceans, melting ice caps, the extraordinary way in which life is adversely affected by climate crisis – it’s going to get worse if we don’t address this crisis in a unified, progressive way.”
Here are the top topics to follow at COP27 in Egypt.
Developing and developed countries have been fighting for years over the concept of a “loss and damage” fund. The idea suggests that the countries that cause the most damage with their outrageous global warming emissions should pay for the poorer countries that have suffered the resulting climate disasters.
It has been a thorny issue because wealthier countries, including the US, do not want to appear responsible or legally liable to other nations for harm. Kerry, for one, has talked about the issue, saying the US supports formal talks, but gave no indication of what solution the country would sign up to.
Meanwhile, small island nations and others in the Global South are bearing the brunt of the climate crisis as devastating floods, intensifying storms and record-breaking heat waves wreak havoc.
Deadly floods in Pakistan this summer, which killed more than 1,500 people, will surely be an example the countries’ negotiators point to. And since September, more than two million people in Nigeria have been affected by the worst floods in a decade. Right now, Nigerians are drinking, cooking and bathing in dirty flood water amid serious concerns about water-borne diseases.
It is likely that loss and damage will feature on the official COP27 agenda this year. But beyond countries pledging to meet and talk about what a potential damage and loss fund would look like, or whether it should even exist, it’s unclear what action will emerge from this year’s summit.
“Do we expect to have cash by the end of two weeks? I hope so, I would love to – but we’ll see how they achieve that,” Egypt’s chief climate negotiator, Ambassador Mohamed Nasr, told reporters recently.
Former White House climate adviser Gina McCarthy told CNN she believes loss and damage will be the top issue at this year’s UN climate summit, and said nations, including the US, will face some tough questions about their plans to help developing countries that are already being hit hard. from climate disasters.
“It just keeps pushing itself out,” McCarthy said. “There is a need for some real accountability and some concrete commitments in the short term.”
People will be watching to see if the US and China can mend a fractured relationship at the summit, a year after the two countries surprised the world by announcing they would work together on climate change.
The new partnership collapsed this summer when China announced it was suspending climate talks with the US as part of broader retaliation for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Kerry recently said climate talks between the two countries are still stalled and will likely remain so until Chinese President Xi Jinping gives the go-ahead. Kerry and others are watching to see if China follows through on a promise it made last year to submit a plan to reduce methane emissions or update its emissions pledge.
The US and China are the world’s two biggest polluters, and their cooperation is important, not least because it can prompt other countries to act.
Regardless of a potential damage and loss fund, there is the primary issue of so-called global climate finance. a fund rich countries have pledged to push money to help the developing world switch to clean energy instead of growing their economies on fossil fuels.
The pledge made in 2009 was $100 billion per year, but the world has yet to meet the pledge. Some of the wealthiest countries, including the US, UK, Canada and others, consistently lag behind in their distribution.
President Joe Biden has pledged that the US will contribute $11 billion by 2024 to the effort. But Biden’s request is ultimately up to Congress to approve, and it likely won’t go anywhere if Republicans win control of Congress in the midterm elections.
The U.S. is working on separate deals with countries including Vietnam, South Africa and Indonesia to move them away from coal and toward renewables. And US officials often stress that they also want to unlock private investment to help countries transition to renewable energy and tackle climate impacts.
COP27 is meant to hold countries’ feet to the fire on fossil fuel emissions and create new ambitions on the climate crisis. However, reports show that we are still off track to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A UN report that looked at countries’ latest commitments showed the planet would warm between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees Celsius. The average global temperature has already risen about 1.2 degrees since the industrial revolution.
Last year saw record highs for all three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
There is one bit of encouraging news: the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles is increasing and helping to offset rising fossil fuel emissions, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency.
But the overall picture from the reports shows that there is a need for much more clean energy, which will grow rapidly. Every fraction of a degree increase in global temperature will have serious consequences, said Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme.
“The energy transition is absolutely possible, but we are not on that path, and we have delayed and lost time,” Andersen told CNN. “Every digit will matter. Let’s not say “we missed 1.5 so let’s settle for 2″. No. We have to understand that every digit that goes up will have a greater impact on our lives and the lives of our children and grandchildren.”
The clock is ticking another way: Next year’s COP28 in Dubai will be the year nations must take official stock to determine whether the world is on track to meet the goals set out in the landmark Paris accord.
