Former Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu was on the verge of a triumphant return to office in Israel, as initial polls suggested he might have a slim majority in the country’s fifth national election in less than four years.
If the exit polls are correct – a big if – Netanyahu and his political allies appear poised to win the most seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
As expected, the first exit polls from the country’s three main broadcasters showed late on Tuesday that no party won enough seats to govern alone, meaning it will be necessary to form a coalition government.
Exit polls predicted pro-Netanyahu parties would get 61 or 62 of the 120 seats in parliament. The alliance consists of Netanyahu’s Likud party, Religious Zionism/Jewish Power, Sas, and United Torah Judaism.
The alliance supporting incumbent Prime Minister Yair Lapid, made up of Yesh Atid, National Unity, Yisrael Beiteinu, Labour, Meretz and Ra’am, was poised to take 54 or 55 seats, according to exit polls.
The Arab Hadash/Taal party, which is unlikely to support either side, was set to secure four seats, according to exit polls.
The election was marked by the highest turnout since 2015. The Central Election Commission said 71.3 percent of voters cast ballots, higher than in any of the last four elections that produced deadlocks or short-lived governments.
Netanyahu spent the final weeks of the campaign entering the country in a van that had been converted into a travel stage surrounded by bulletproof glass. Pro-Netanyahu ads – and ads that make his opponents look shady – plastered the sides of buses.
It is not yet certain that Netanyahu is back, after Lapid lost him after last year’s election.
Exit polls are only predictions based on interviews with voters on Tuesday, not official results. Results can – and have in the past – changed on election night. The official results may not be final until Wednesday or even Thursday.
Once official results are in, President Isaac Herzog will invite the politician he deems most likely to be able to form a government to begin coalition negotiations.
Netanyahu’s return to the head of government could mean fundamental changes in Israeli society.
A Netanyahu government would almost certainly include the new Jewish nationalist Religious Zionism/Jewish Power alliance, whose leaders include Itamar Ben Gvir, once convicted of inciting racism and supporting terrorism.
If the exit polls prove correct, the far-right alliance will more than double its representation in the Knesset. The group had six seats in the outgoing parliament. Exit polls show they have won 14 or 15 seats this time.
When asked by CNN on Tuesday about fears he would lead a far-right government if returned to power, Netanyahu responded with an apparent reference to the Ra’am party, which made history last year by becoming the first Arab party ever to have an Israeli as a member. government coalition.
“We don’t want a government with the Muslim Brotherhood, who support terrorism, deny the existence of Israel and are quite hostile to the United States. This is what we will bring,” Netanyahu told CNN in English at his polling station in Jerusalem.
And Netanyahu’s allies have spoken of changes to the judicial system. This could put an end to Netanyahu’s own corruption trial, where he has pleaded not guilty.
Netanyahu himself has been one of the main issues not only in Tuesday’s election but in the four that have preceded it, with voters – and politicians – split into camps based on whether they want the man known worldwide as Bibi in power. or not.
Part of the difficulty in building a stable government during the past four elections has been that even some political parties that agree with Netanyahu on issues refuse to work with him for personal or political reasons.
Regardless of whether the exit polls are correct or not, they are only exit polls and not official results.
Getting the official results will take some time – they could be ready as early as Wednesday, but it could be Thursday before the final composition of Israel’s 25th Knesset is clear.
This is partly because parties must win at least 3.25% of the total vote to get any seats in the Knesset, a threshold established in an effort to make coalition building easier by keeping very small parties out of the legislature. .
To determine how many seats each party will receive, election officials must first determine which parties passed the threshold. They can then calculate how many votes are needed to win a single seat in the Knesset and award seats to parties based on the number of votes they received.
This is where the real driving and trading begins.
There is a small chance that even if the election results look like a deadlock, a smart negotiator can assemble a surprise coalition, as Lapid did last year.
On the other hand, even if on paper it looks like one or the other leader has the support to form a majority government, they will have to trick the smaller parties into coalition deals.
And these smaller parties will have demands – control of specific ministries, funding of projects or programs important to their voters, introducing new laws or getting rid of old ones.
Potential prime ministers will have to balance the competing demands of rival coalition partners, each of whom knows they hold the keys to becoming head of government.
And whoever becomes prime minister – if anyone becomes – will face the same problems.
The cost of living is skyrocketing in Israel as it is in many other places, with energy and grocery bills skyrocketing. An Israel Democracy Institute poll this summer found that a party’s economic platform was by far the factor most often cited as a reason for choosing who to vote for. Almost half (44%) of Israeli voters said it was the most important factor, well ahead of the quarter (24%) who said the party leader was the deciding factor.
Any new prime minister will also need to address the conflict between Israel and Palestinian militias that has claimed more lives on both sides this year than at any time since 2015.
The Israel Defense Forces have been conducting frequent raids for months in the occupied West Bank – particularly in Jenin and Nablus – saying they are trying to arrest known attackers and seize weapons.
As a strategy, it does not appear to have reduced the level of violence: at least one Israeli civilian was shot and killed near Hebron in the West Bank on Saturday, and others were injured in the same incident – as were two medics who responded. one Israeli and one Palestinian. A day later, a Palestinian rammed his car into five Israeli soldiers near Jericho. Both Palestinian attackers were killed, in a cycle of violence that the new prime minister will have to deal with – if, indeed, there is a new prime minister as a result of Tuesday’s vote.
