It is possible that the party will succumb to a 1997-style landslide, or worse, Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University and considered the UK’s leading polling expert, told a briefing. While the replacement of Liz Truss by Rishi Sunak has narrowed Labour’s lead slightly, Curtice said, a determining factor was likely to be the reversals Truss was forced to make from September’s mini-budget after a jittery market reaction . Asked whether it was possible for the Conservatives to win the next election, Curtice said: “History shows it will be extremely difficult, simply because no government that has presided over a fiscal crisis has survived in the end – 1948, 1967, 1976 , 1992. It is not a pleasant litany of priority. “Voters don’t forget governments forced into reversals by financial markets. So it’s going to be very, very difficult.” He said a glimmer of hope for the Tories was that polls showed far more support for Mr Sunak personally than for his party, seemingly a sign that the legacy of his role as chancellor during the Covid pandemic was “still with him”. . The key to Sunak turning around his party’s fortunes will be the fate of the economy over the next two years, Curtice said. “One of the problems facing the government is comparing 1992 and 2008 [after previous economic crises], there is not much fat in public services,” he said. “It’s pretty clear that right now, two years on [from an election]Labor are favorites to win the next election, and for the first time in this parliament they look like they have a half-decent chance of getting an overall majority, and that’s a fundamental change in the political outlook.” Some of the Tras-era polls, if extrapolated to constituency-level votes, showed the Conservatives down by just 60 seats. Asked if the party faced a 1997-scale wipeout or worse, Curtice said: “It probably won’t be that bad. But there is a danger that the Conservative party will suffer seriously.” Focusing on specific areas of voters, such as those in the “red wall”, or those who voted leave, would not be a solution, he argued. “The Conservative Party has lost ground across the electorate. They’ve lost that not because they’re in favor of a small state or they’re in favor of Brexit or any number of ideological issues we can think of,” he said. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. “They’ve lost ground because the public at large have decided they can’t be trusted to run the country, and when one party loses ground in terms of authority, it loses ground among everyone. Forget aiming – this only matters when it’s close. We’re not that close.” While Sunak appears to have escaped being too tarnished by the fallout from the No 10 parties under Boris Johnson, despite his own fine, voters are still condemning the Conservatives on the issue, Curtis said. “If I was giving advice to the prime minister, I would say the only thing you have to do is play by the rules, not just the legal rules, but the rules of the convention,” he argued. “That’s why re-appointing the home secretary within days of her resignation for breaching the ministerial code was, shall we say, a brave decision.”
