In the Senate race, Democrat Mandela Barnes trails Johnson by three percentage points (45%-48%). That’s largely unchanged from last month, with Barnes leading the way with four points in August. Wisconsin voters on their preference in the 2022 Senate race. (Fox News) There are enough undecided/third-party voters to swing the race either way, and Johnson’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error. RON JOHNSON CAMPAIGN BREAKS BARNES’ RECORD ON GUNS, AMMUNITION AS ‘MORE IN CALIFORNIA THAN WISCONSIN’ Among only the subset of those who have already voted or say they are certain to vote (10 out of 10), it’s a two-point race: Barnes 46% to Johnson 48%. Poll of Wisconsin voters who have already voted or are certain to vote for their Senate preference. (Fox News) About the same number of Democrats support Barnes (93%) as Republicans support Johnson (93%). Independents favor Barnes by 7 points. Johnson’s electoral advantage comes from the fact that more Wisconsin voters identify as Republicans than as Democrats. Johnson is favored among men, voters without a college degree, white evangelical Christians and rural voters. Barnes is the choice among women, voters age 65+ and under 35, voters with a college degree, and urban voters. Suburban voters are sharply divided. About the same number of Johnson supporters (61%) and Barnes supporters (58%) support their candidate “enthusiastically,” but by a margin of 7 points more than those who favor Barnes say their support is because they don’t like Johnson . Wisconsin Poll of Voter Enthusiasm and Support Rating. (Fox News) Meanwhile, Johnson has been successful in portraying Barnes as an outlier — 36% of independents feel that way, up from 19% in August. Among Republicans, 84% worry that Barnes is too extreme, up from 56%. For Johnson, 41% of independents and 87% of Democrats worry that his views are too extreme. Overall, the same number of voters, 44%, worry that Barnes and Johnson are too far out. Inflation (30%) and abortion (24%) are the top two issues for Wisconsinites when deciding their Senate vote. Those who prioritize inflation pick Johnson (+64 points), while pro-abortion voters support Barnes (+54). “As expected, Wisconsin is extremely competitive,” says Republican pollster Darron Shaw, who conducts the Fox poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Johnson’s advantage is driven by two facts. First, there are prevailing issues on which the public favors the GOP. Second, he managed to brand Barnes as too liberal. But it’s still a tight race.” FOX NEWS POLL: POLARITY DEFINES MID-TERM ELECTIONS Forty-nine percent of Badger State voters approve of the job Evers is doing as governor. However, only 90% of those who approve support his re-election. That makes for a close race for governor, with 46% going to Evers, while 47% go to Republican challenger Tim Michels. Last month, it was 47% apiece. Poll of Wisconsin voters on their preference for governor. (Fox News) It’s also a 1-point race among those who say they are certain to vote/have already voted: 47% Evers vs. 48% Michels. Poll of Wisconsin voters who have already voted or are certain to vote about their preference for governor. (Fox News) There is little split-ticket voting: 3% of Johnson’s Senate supporters cross party lines to support Evers in the gubernatorial race, and 2% of Barnes’ supporters favor Michels. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP “With partisans mostly rallying behind their candidates, those races come down to turnout,” Anderson says. “If Democrats prevail, it will likely be because of higher turnout rates among college-educated women and younger voters.” CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINES AND TAWSTARIES Conducted October 26-30, 2022, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), these Fox News surveys include interviews with 1,000 registered voters in Wisconsin who were randomly selected from a statewide voter file. state and who spoke with live interviews on both landlines and mobile phones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.