Check your pocket watch, still set to Standard Tournament Time, and it’s actually April. The World Cup is – cabin crew, landing seats – less than two months away. And the lead-up begins this week with a round of Nations League matches, the first steps towards a final in Doha on 18 December. At the end of which, red-eyed and flustered, the season is free to return to arrivals and straight to the Christmas schedule. For England, the series begins on Friday against Italy in Milan, followed by Germany’s visit to Wembley three days later. It’s a tasty double-header and an unusually urgent outlook on two fronts. First, as the last chance to sort out personnel and tactical issues before a World Cup that many people, or at least many English people, seem to think Gareth Southgate’s side should be among the favorites to win. And secondly, this is the beginning of a wider calculation of Gareth’s age. It’s been six years now, spanning two tournaments, one of them a plastic, plague-whipped thing that started with a fudge and ended in a toxic hangover. In that time, the England team has been re-engineered, super-lionised and lifted to unprecedented heights of (non-trophy) achievement. but also carried away by a strange sense of rage and resentment. The next 12 weeks might just decide which way this thing goes. Southgate said he would not overstay his welcome. And it’s always a little later than you think. At this point, it’s time to dust off some reassuringly familiar questions. Mainly, is England good? What should we reasonably – that word is key – expect from this group? And how distracting is the noise (because there is always noise) around him? As always the answers are relative. On Tuesday morning, a national radio station asked whether anything less than winning the World Cup should be considered a failure for England, who have won a tournament in 72 years of trying. Hmm. Good question. Let’s break it down, let’s do it. England are capable of reaching the quarter-finals, with anything more than that a bonus. But two things must happen. First, they need to kill background noise. And this is at least familiar territory. In many ways, the Southgate era has been defined by the ceaseless battle with English delusion, English exceptionalism, the self-sabotage of unrealistic English expectation. Bobby Moore lifts the World Cup in 1966: England’s only victory in the tournament in 72 years of trying. Photo: PA Images He has won this battle once using his neatest trick, the ability to turn weaknesses into strengths. This is true on a tactical level. The England he inherited could not keep the ball and were weak in central defence. Solution: play seven defenders, keep the ball deep in that hunk, be impenetrable. The same has been achieved, more significantly, in the realm of emotions, vibrations, energy. The England he inherited was also arrogant and fragile. By the time Russia 2018 came around, he had a team defined by its galvanizing, performative humility. We are the most humble. Look at our humility and tremble, for we are England, truly exceptional in our lack of excellence. It worked. The players felt no pressure. The country triumphantly embraced the lack of triumphalism. The English delusion caught on to that too. The thinking seems to be: since we’re good enough now, we must of course be the best. The success of others is an aberration, a departure from some Arthurian state of grace. So the fact that England have good players has translated into “an unstoppable arm of golden talent”. The rare success of reaching the Euro 2020 final has become the unforgivable failure of failing to win the Euro 2020 final. As always, this comes back to issues of scale. England are capable of beating Italy and Germany. But they are also bottom of their Nations League group without a goal from open play. At the same time, the idea of a generational talent harvest, the envy of all of Europe, simply does not hold up. Harry Kane is England’s best player, the world’s top five in his position, but with a gap from the Mbappé-Lewandowski elite. Raheem Sterling, Southgate’s second most effective attacking weapon, has left Manchester City to start more. None of England’s goalkeepers play in the Champions League. Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka are good young players, but they are unlikely to inspire feelings of pure terror in countries that have their own large arm of talented strikers. Which other elite international teams would consider Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw for a starting spot? Start your evenings with the Guardian’s view of the world of football Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Moreover, in a stunning blow to the national psyche, there are other nations. The struggle to work this out is in many ways the defining battleground of English football and indeed English culture more generally. There are groups that seem a level above. Brazil have lost once since the start of 2020. France and Germany are strong. Would England, by default, expect Belgium or Portugal or Spain or Argentina to beat them? There is an ad hominem element to this loss of scale, a personal animosity behind the desire to denounce Southgate’s consistent achievements as England manager. Many simply do not like his politics, his manner, his tactical reticence. But Southgate has his flaws. There has been a lack of development, a sense that other teams have learned how to combat England’s simple game. Declan Rice reacts to England’s defeat in the final of Euro 2020. The rare success of reaching the final has become the unforgivable failure of not winning. Photo: Tom Jenkins/The Guardian Every major defeat in his six years – Croatia, Holland, Italy (on penalties) – has come as a result of maneuvering and overtaking late in tight knockout games when, as a rule, the better midfield wins. The only real point of development was the willingness to start the more progressive Jude Bellingham. But Bellingham is also 19 years old. And a progressive whizzy 4-3-3 lost 4-0 to Hungary last time out. It seems almost certain that Southgate will retreat into his comfort zone, the football of control and fine detail. England must win next week, or at least avoid defeat, because winning was difficult. Most of all, they need to generate energy, to feel good, to find that height of missionary zeal. Trust the process. At this distance, it’s all we’ll get. And it’s worth saying again. England have reached five semi-finals in 72 years, two of them (two out of two) under Southgate. However long the current jet-lagged trip ends, these accomplishments will remain.
