The Guardian has seen documents marked “officially sensitive”, which warn that in a “reasonable worst-case scenario” all sectors, including transport, food and water supplies, communications and energy could be “severely disrupted”. for up to a week. They show ministers will prioritize providing food, water and shelter to the young and the elderly, as well as those with caring responsibilities, if the country faces blackouts, with the Met Office warning Britain faces a greater risk of a cold winter . Whitehall officials are currently trialling Program Yarrow, the confidential blackout response plan, and have held a series of exercises with government departments and councils across the country in recent days. The intergovernmental plan was first drawn up in 2021, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to improve planning and resilience in the event of a major technical failure in the National Grid. However, concerns about the impact of a blackout have grown as a result of the war, with government insiders admitting that planning exercises had taken on new urgency as a result of the subsequent energy crisis, which has seen household energy bills rise. Ed Miliband, the shadow climate secretary, said: “All governments do contingency planning for worst-case scenarios, but the truth is that we are vulnerable as a country as a direct consequence of a decade of failed Conservative energy policy. “Banning onshore wind, cutting investment in energy efficiency, shutting down nuclear and closing natural gas storage have led to higher bills and a reliance on natural gas imports, leaving us more exposed to the impact of energy use by Putin as a geopolitical weapon”. The type of technical fault envisaged by government planners includes flood or lightning damage to a substation, but could also cover an attack by a hostile state on undersea power cables, following Russian attacks on the Nord Stream energy pipelines. The leak comes after Security Secretary Tom Tugendhat warned on Monday that Britain had become “more vulnerable” in recent years as countries seeking to harm it had “leveled the playing field” by investing time and money in new technologies. . In the worst-case scenario outlined in the plan, only analogue FM radios would work, with only BBC Radio 2 and 4 broadcasting and uncertainties surrounding local radio as some stations only have a few hours of generator back-up coverage. The Guardian revealed last month that the BBC was preparing secret scripts that could be read on air if power shortages cause blackouts or the loss of natural gas supplies this winter. A source said: “The government does not want any publicity in Yarrow as it does not want to be seen as being linked to Ukraine, energy supplies and the cost of living. But we have to think about how we can help people in advance. The fact that they’re talking about it now means they have a real concern that it could happen.” The Yarrow program is preparing for a situation where power is unavailable, without any warning, to all facilities without backup generators during the winter. It predicts that 60% of electricity demand will be met “between days 2 and 7”, when households and businesses will have “intermittent access” to ration supply. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. An agreement between energy regulator Ofgem and National Grid states that 100% of electricity demand should be restored after a week. The government expects this target to be met even in the worst case scenario. “All sectors will be severely disrupted, including communications, transport networks, energy supply, food and water supply,” one document said. Yarrow’s plans are preparing for a more severe situation than that described by National Grid last month, which warned that Britons could face three-hour rolling blackouts under a worst-case scenario if temperatures plummet and Russia cuts supply natural gas in Europe. Under the electricity emergency code, households and businesses will be notified 24 hours in advance of a planned outage, and the plan could be published up to a week in advance on a rolling basis. The ‘rotating disconnection scheme’ is designed for uniform blackout across the country. Power outages should initially only happen once a day for three hours, although it may take up to an hour to reconnect after that. However, the frequency of cuts will depend on the severity of energy supply shortages. Jan Rosenow, director of Europe at the Regulatory Assistance Project, an energy thinktank, said: “There are so many things coming together at once: gas shortages, high prices, problems with generating electricity from nuclear power plants in France. This is what worries the government. It is wise [to plan for outages]. It’s a shame it takes a crisis to have this conversation.” A government spokesman said: “As a responsible government, it is right that we plan for all possible scenarios and work with industry to prepare and exercise robust contingency plans. This work is ongoing and is an important part of our national resilience planning. “Local and national exercises are part of this ongoing work and ensure we are able to respond effectively to any of a wide range of scenarios, no matter how unlikely they may be.”
