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With Russia’s war in Ukraine now in its eighth month, there is still no clear end to the carnage. Tens of thousands of soldiers are dead or maimed, entire cities have been reduced to piles of rubble, there have been reports of torture and atrocities by Russian occupiers, and millions have become refugees. While Russia has seized swathes of territory in the south and east of the country, Ukraine has put up a stronger fight than expected and often humiliated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion forces that, on paper, were set to crush Ukraine in few days. Not only have Ukrainian defenders staved off an all-out takeover by Russia, but they have also retaken parts of the country by launching well-coordinated, bold counterattacks in the east and south. However, despite defeats on the battlefield, Russia still has devastating military capabilities that it can use. In recent weeks, it has fired missiles and drones at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While Europe’s longest war since 1945 appears to have entered a waning phase, there are several ways the conflict could play out.

Cease fire

If the fighting reaches a stalemate, there could be some negotiated, temporary truce between Russia and Ukraine, according to Seth Jones, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, Program on International Security. “That probably wouldn’t be an end, however, it would be the state of active war that would be reduced, at least temporarily, and become something closer to a frozen conflict that can heat up or cool down depending on a range of factors,” he said. . he said. Ukrainian soldiers in a tank. Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Jones pointed to the two Chechen wars that took place in the 1990s. Russia negotiated a ceasefire in 1994 that ended the first war, but then started another war three years later and stepped up its offensive. In this scenario, Russia could hope that the US and other Western countries will lose interest in the conflict and in supporting Ukraine. “This would ultimately shift the balance of power in Russia’s favor and allow it to regain territory as it ideally wanted in February,” Jones said.

Peace agreement

It is possible that the war could end with a peace deal, although a settlement is difficult because of Russia’s and Ukraine’s divergent goals and what they both see as their legitimate territory. “I think Vladimir Putin is in too deep right now. He’s invested too much political and military capital right now to get out of the war without very clear successes,” Jones said. Jones said that while it was unclear what Putin would consider “success,” he might settle for Russia taking parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, which he could then designate as intended targets. The more complicated question is what Ukraine would be willing to give up in any peace deal. Jones said it would be almost “politically suicidal” for any leader in Kyiv to cede any Ukrainian territory.

Russian victory

When it launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s goal was to completely occupy the country. Jones said it’s important to note that Ukraine has already achieved a major victory by preventing Russia from achieving that goal. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu greets soldiers and participants during a military parade in Moscow, Russia on May 9, 2015. Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images “Arguably, at least until February 2022, the third most powerful military in the world behind the US and the Chinese were the Russians. So they have already prevented a Russian blitzkrieg operation to capture the capital, overthrow the government and either incorporate it into Russia or create a puppet government,” he said. It is unlikely now that Russia will be able to completely reverse the war and achieve its initial goals, but it could accept a “victory” in the form of a peace agreement in which it takes more territory than it had before it started of the invasion.

Russian retreat, Ukrainian victory

As long as Putin is at the helm of the country, it would be highly unlikely that Russian forces would fully withdraw, Jones said. “In Russia, bad things happen to rulers who lose wars,” Mark Kancian, a retired US Marine colonel and senior adviser to CSIS, told Insider. Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting via video conference in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2022. Gavriil Grigorov/AP But despite Russia’s strongman facing discontent at home over mounting war casualties, a partial mobilization of reserves and a sanctions-damaged economy, he appears to be showing no signs of backing down. Although the chances of him being toppled in a coup are perhaps higher than ever, experts have previously said the Russian leader has made his regime “counter-coup” through a culture of mistrust among Russian intelligence services. However, an all-out Russian retreat could be possible if Putin were to be ousted or die. Rumors have also long swirled about his alleged health problems, although intelligence experts and the US military have warned that there is no reliable evidence that he is ill. Ukrainians believe that total victory is possible. Svitlana Morenets, a Ukrainian journalist who works for The Spectator news magazine in the United Kingdom, spoke on Friday at a discussion titled “It’s time to make a peace in Ukraine.” The plan is not for years of fighting but Russia’s military defeat, he said. He pointed to Putin’s recent fall into the “grain aisle” as an example of Russia’s growing weakness.

Long war

Not all wars end with a clear victory for one side. Another possibility is that fighting continues to rage without any ceasefire or settlement, which Jones said could go on for years. It could include special forces fighting back and forth across contact lines, guerrilla action by Ukraine in Russian-controlled territory, and long-range bombing of Ukrainian soil by Russia or Belarus. At its present stage, the conflict seems to have turned into a war of attrition. Rather than seizing more territory, Russia’s goals at the current stage of the war appear to be to weaken Ukraine’s resources, economy and military. A damaged Russian armored personnel carrier (APC) is seen near the village of Nova Husarivka, Ukraine, on September 15, 2022. Gleb Garanich/Reuters It is not clear which side could hold out longer, although Russia has experienced significant losses in terms of soldiers and weapons. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, newly appointed Russian General Sergey Surovikin plans to build a solid line of defense in the occupied territories and effectively freeze the war during the winter. Russia will not seek to launch any new large-scale offensive on Ukrainian soil at this time and will take time to strengthen its combat capabilities, the think tank said.

Nuclear war and/or NATO intervention

Putin has repeatedly made nuclear threats since launching the invasion of Ukraine and, in September, claimed they were “no bluff.” …