Even if his name isn’t on the ballots Americans cast next week, Donald Trump remains one of the most powerful forces in the midterm elections, a vote that will show how much of the Republican party he has cast in his mold. It may even affect the former president’s decision to run again. Mr. Trump used the midterm elections to campaign for the favored candidates — including himself. With polls suggesting Republicans will regain control of at least one house in the US Congress, the former president has positioned himself to use the results as a personal victory if his chosen candidates can secure their seats. For voters, that means the Nov. 8 election not only offers a referendum on the performance of Joe Biden’s presidency, but will also judge Mr. Trump and the ways he has changed U.S. politics. Mr. Trump is “on the ballot only insofar as he changed the direction of the party — he changed the direction of the country,” said Jay Chabria, a Republican strategist in Ohio, where Mr. Trump has endorsed the lawyer and author JD Vance. in a closely watched Senate race. What does the rise in early voting mean for the US midterm elections? Among voters, Mr. Trump himself is low on the list of priorities. But the issues that have come to the fore, Mr. Chabria said, reflect a lack of faith in the institutions of American government — the same institutions that Mr. Trump has proven effective at criticizing. Whether it’s inflation, crime, the pandemic or immigration, “it’s the same thing: that these big institutions have failed people,” he said. Border issues, for example, are top of mind for Midwestern voters, even though they live far from Mexico. Even before becoming president, Mr. Trump was quick to grasp the border as an issue that could be turned to his advantage. “At the end of the day, it’s about a sense of justice — and it drives a lot of voters even in a state like Ohio,” Mr. Chabria said. Pursuing these political instincts, the former president has become arguably the most important figure in the Republican Party, reshaping its image in the policies it pursues and the often-cruel way it pursues them. Explaining the US midterm elections Voters across the United States head to the polls on November 8, to determine the composition of both houses of Congress his house REPRESENTATIVES All 435 seats for election Republicans need to collect six positions to take control The Democrats are holding on right now Majority 220-212, with three vacancies SENATE 35 out of 100 positions for elections – 14 Democrat, 21 Republican Republicans should take a seat to take control The Democrats are holding on right now majority due to a tie vote of the Vice President Kamala Harris *Includes two independents who vote with Democrats graphic news, Sources: Cook Political Report; Polykratos Explaining the US midterm elections Voters across the United States head to the polls on November 8, to determine the composition of both houses of Congress his house REPRESENTATIVES All 435 seats for election Republicans should take six places to take control The Democrats are holding on right now Majority 220-212, with three vacancies SENATE 35 out of 100 positions for elections – 14 Democrat, 21 Republican Republicans should take a seat to take control The Democrats are holding on right now majority due to a tie vote of the Vice President Kamala Harris *Includes two independents who vote with Democrats graphic news, Sources: Cook Political Report; Polykratos Explaining the US midterm elections Voters across the United States head to the polls on November 8, to determine the composition of both houses of Congress his house REPRESENTATIVES All 435 seats for election Republicans need to collect six positions to take control The Democrats are holding on right now Majority 220-212, with three vacancies SENATE 35 out of 100 positions for elections – 14 Democrat, 21 Republican Republicans must take a seat to take control The Democrats are holding on right now majority due to a tie vote of the Vice President Kamala Harris *Includes two independents who vote with Democrats graphic news, Sources: Cook Political Report; Polykratos Next week’s election is, in part, a referendum on this particular kind of politics, with its cries of culture-war rallying and its willingness to deny election results. Mr Trump has endorsed a wide range of candidates, some of them high-profile candidates for the Senate, including Mr Vance in Ohio, Mehmet Oz – better known as TV’s Dr. Oz – in Pennsylvania and former NFL running back Herschel Walker in Georgia. . Polls show a tight Senate race, and candidates with Mr. Trump’s support are being watched closely as an indicator of his political future. “If he were to lose those games, that might be the one thing that gives him pause to say, ‘You know what? Maybe my support is not what I thought it would be,” Mick Mulvaney, the former White House chief of staff, told Mr Trump. If, on the other hand, “those matches go really well, they might encourage him to announce sooner rather than later.” Mr. Trump has already seen success in shaping Republican candidates for the House of Representatives, who will ensure that Congress after the midterms looks “a lot more like Donald Trump,” said Jennifer Lawless, a fellow at the University of Virginia. and head. editor of the American Journal of Political Science. Republican leaders in Congress, he said, will face a choice. They can fight for policies that have promised to reduce inflation, reduce crime and make changes to the border. Or “they can go on a two-year revenge tour that they hope will be sufficient to win the presidency in 2024,” Professor Lawless said. “And that’s the path that Trump would probably prefer.” Republicans have promised investigations into Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, the White House’s chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci, and the Justice Department. Some also threatened to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. History has shown that hard-line Republican tactics can pay off, supporting the re-election of Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012. Mr. Trump, too, “lost 2020 in part because people were tired of him,” said Gary. Jacobson, an emeritus fellow at the University of California, San Diego who has written extensively on US politics. The Republicans’ fractious leadership in Congress for the next two years risks angering voters in the party. For Mr. Trump, Mr. Jacobson said, the more voters are reminded “why they didn’t appreciate him in 2020, the worse it is for him.” At the same time, faith in Mr. Trump remains so strong among his staunchest supporters that he can expect few obstacles to running for president again if he chooses to pursue it, regardless of how the country votes next week. “If he’s nominated, I think it’s pretty clear he’s going to get the nomination,” said Anthony Scaramucci, Mr Trump’s short-lived White House communications director, who has become an outspoken critic. Mr. Trump, he said, cares more about money and attention. “Politics gave him both of those things,” he said. So when it comes to the next general election, in 2024, “if he can win it, he will be a candidate. I don’t see why he wouldn’t.” The Trump movement has been fueled by a cultural backlash against progressive forces that remain strong, both in the US and in other Western democracies — turning voters to candidates that Harvard scholar Pippa Norris calls authoritarian populists. Two years of hostile divisions in Congress “will magnify conspiracy theories and the idea that politics is corrupt and that nothing can get done in D.C. — and therefore you need a strong leader like Trump who can overcome,” he said Professor Norris, founding director of the Electoral Integrity Project and co-author of the 2019 book; Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit and authoritarian populism. Such an outcome, he said, would only further darken the outlook for a country whose system of government Mr. Trump has put under strain. “We know that there has already been a democratic backsliding. But this is likely to get worse,” he said. Mid-term results showing high levels of support for those aligned with Mr. Trump, he added, would be highly symbolic, “because they’re just another indication of what went wrong.”
