Comment The calendar may say November, but the tropical Atlantic is busier than it has been at any point in August. Two hurricanes — Lisa and Martin — have developed and a third system is organizing, bringing a sharp flurry of activity to a season that would normally be nearly over. Statistically, a November hurricane should form in the Atlantic every two or three years. Having two at the same time is rare. A pair of hurricanes have roamed the Atlantic at the same time in November only twice before, according to Phil Klotzbach, a tropical weather researcher at Colorado State University. With Lisa moving closer and closer to Belize on Wednesday morning, a hurricane warning was in effect for the entire coast. The National Hurricane Center warned of hurricane-force winds and “life-threatening storm surge” near Lisa’s core, which is expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The southeast coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula was also under a hurricane warning, from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya. A tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of the northern coasts of Guatemala and Honduras. “Preparations to protect life and property should be completed promptly,” the Hurricane Center wrote. Another storm, Martin, became the seventh Atlantic hurricane of 2022 on Wednesday morning. It is located in the North Atlantic, hundreds of miles northeast of Bermuda, and is forecast to move northeast over open water for the next few days. After Ian, Florida’s waterways could remain polluted for months About midway between Lisa and Martin, there is the potential for a third system to gradually develop near the Bahamas in the coming days. This flurry of late-season activity in the Atlantic follows a somewhat quieter-than-average season despite devastating storms like Fiona and Ian, which wreaked havoc in Puerto Rico, Atlantic Canada and southwest Florida. Overall activity is about 25 percent below average at this point. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30. November is usually a slow month, with activity tapering off and eventually leveling off. On average, only about 7% of a season’s storms will occur after Halloween. As of Wednesday morning, Lisa was about 60 miles east of Roatan, a Honduran island, and about 100 miles east of Belize City. It had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph while moving west at 15 mph. Lisa’s roughly 30-mile-wide eyewall, the ring of strong winds surrounding its calm center, was visible on radar churning to the west. It looked poised to make landfall sometime between 2 and 4 p.m. Eastern time. Winds were gradually becoming more gusty along the coastline and were expected to increase significantly around or shortly after midday. Coastal gusts near Lisa’s center could approach 70 to 80 mph. Belize City seems to be in the spotlight. A dangerous storm surge is possible for areas just north of where Lisa’s center makes landfall. In this area, Lisa’s onshore winds will push up to 4 to 7 feet of ocean water onto the coastline. The zone just north of Belize City may see the maximum surge, including the vacation communities on Ambergris Caye. Areas south of Belize City will see more offshore winds, which will limit the surge. Across the system’s immediate path, heavy rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are expected, with local totals of 10 inches possible. “These rainfalls could lead to flash flood conditions, mainly across Belize in northern Guatemala, the southeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco,” the Hurricane Center wrote. Martin rather unexpectedly developed on Tuesday from a mature mid-latitude cyclone. The overall system did not originate through conventional tropical processes, but an outbreak of rain and thunderstorms did occur near the center of the system. In other words, a solid tropical storm formed in the core of a non-tropical system. It has since strengthened into a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm, about 800 miles northeast of Bermuda, was moving northeast at just over 15 mph. Martin is forecast to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph by Thursday, but is then forecast to quickly transition to a post-tropical cyclone, losing its tropical characteristics. It is likely to swing northwards, remaining south of Greenland, until the end of the working week before turning sharply east and gradually weakening as it approaches Britain. Weather models are beginning to suggest that a large, broad low pressure system could develop near or east of the Bahamas in the coming days. The Hurricane Center estimates there is a 20 percent chance it will become a tropical depression or storm over the next five days. There is a chance the system will drift toward Florida or the Gulf of Mexico in about a week, but how organized and intense it will be is almost impossible to predict that far out. If the system wins a name, it would be called Nicole.
