Economists are looking for evidence that inflation has peaked and high prices are finally starting to fall, but they are unlikely to find much good news in a key report to be released on Friday.
The Ministry of Labor publishes the long-awaited report of the consumer price index on Friday morning, providing a new look at how hot inflation was in May. Economists expect the index, which measures a basket of goods, including gasoline, healthcare, grocery stores and rent, to show that prices rose 8.3% in May from a year earlier – unchanged from the previous year. April, but still close to the 40-year high that occurred in March. . In a monthly basis, Inflation is expected to rise 0.7%, well above the 0.5% recorded last month.
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“Inflation is out of control and will be for some time, as the sources of inflation are entrenched: very easy money, a clogged supply chain and rising wages caused by labor shortages,” said Dan North, a senior economist at Allianz Trade. North. America.
Inflation is rapidly reducing Americans’ purchasing power, eroding the strong wage gains workers have seen in recent months. Rising prices have also become a political responsibility for President Biden, who has seen his acceptance plummet along with rising costs.
The White House is already in a loss-control mode in the face of the latest inflation data, with officials publicly preparing for another bleak reading after months of publicly declining rising costs.
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“We expect inflation to rise,” White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre told reporters Wednesday in Air Force One. “And we expect that the war in Ukraine will have some impact on the core of inflation, especially when you look at things like airfare and the impact of higher aircraft fuel costs.”
Government officials are increasingly trying to contain voters’ anger over uncontrolled consumer prices, saying President Biden is stepping up efforts to reduce inflation ahead of November’s interim presidential term, which could be a bloodbath for them. Democrats. Biden is expected to visit the port of Los Angeles after the release of the latest data on Friday, during which he is expected to emphasize efforts to reduce prices.
A customer buys products at a Cardenas Market on June 8, 2022 in San Rafael, California. ((Photo by Justin Sullivan / Getty Images) / Getty Images)
The president blamed higher prices on supply chain bottlenecks and more pandemic-caused unrest in the economy, as well as the Russian war in Ukraine. Most economists now agree that unprecedented levels of government stimulus and a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic have also played at least some role in worsening rising prices.
The report will also have a significant impact on the US Federal Reserve, which is tightening policy at the fastest pace in decades as it seeks to reduce consumer demand and reduce uncontrolled inflation. Policymakers raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points last month for the first time in two decades and have promised similar rate hikes in June and July.
May’s report could increase the chances of more aggressive moves by the Fed in the coming months.
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“The Fed is far behind the inflation curve,” North said. “The Fed has made a mess of itself as it takes three to five quarters for monetary policy changes to take effect – they should have started a year ago.”