Iran is seeking Russia’s help to boost its nuclear weapons program, US intelligence officials believe, as Tehran seeks a backup plan in case a lasting nuclear deal with world powers fails to materialize.
The information suggests that Iran has asked Russia for help in acquiring additional nuclear materials and making nuclear fuel, sources briefed on the matter said. The fuel could help Iran power its nuclear reactors and could potentially further shorten Iran’s so-called “explosion time” to build a nuclear weapon.
Experts pointed out to CNN, however, that the risk of nuclear proliferation varies depending on the reactor for which the fuel is used. And it’s also unclear whether Russia has agreed to help — the Kremlin has long been outwardly opposed to Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.
But the Iranian proposal came amid an expanding partnership between Iran and Russia that in recent months has included Iran sending drones and other equipment to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine and Moscow potentially advising Tehran on how to suppresses a protest movement sweeping Iran. , US officials said.
The Biden administration is therefore watching with concern any new areas of cooperation between Iran and Russia. Any covert Russian aid to Iran that could boost Iran’s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon would also mark a major shift in Russian policy, given Russia’s membership of the P5+1 group of countries involved in nuclear deterrence negotiations program of Iran.
“As we’ve said, the JCPOA is not on the agenda,” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson told CNN, referring to the official name for the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “We are working with partners to expose the growing ties between Iran and Russia – and hold them accountable. We will be steadfast in dealing with any cooperation that would be contrary to our non-proliferation goals.”
The Iranian mission to the UN and the Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Iran was seeking help from Russia with its nuclear program in exchange for military assistance provided to Moscow, but information received by the US did not indicate an explicit pre-quo, sources said.
Instead, Iran’s overtures to Russia appear at least partly motivated by the belief among senior Iranian officials that a new nuclear deal either will not be revived or, if it does, will not last.
Sources briefed on the information told CNN that Iran’s concerns were heightened over the summer as it appeared to be nearing a new nuclear deal with the US and other world powers known as the P5+1 – a group that includes Russia. Iran’s fear was that a future administration could pull out of a deal, as the Trump administration did in 2018, so it sought a side deal with Russia that would allow it to quickly retool its nuclear program if needed.
CNN previously reported that Iran sought guarantees from the US that a future administration would not back out of the deal – a promise the US said it could not make.
Asked if the growing Iran-Russia partnership was a factor in the derailment of the nuclear deal talks, a senior administration official told CNN: “Obviously, side deals between Russia that fundamentally undermined the structure of the 2015 deal would be a serious concern and would decrease further. the possibility of returning to the agreement”. The official declined to comment specifically on the intelligence estimates.
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he doesn’t think Iran necessarily needs the help — but that they have an incentive, namely to produce fuel faster, cheaper and on a shorter schedule.
“They have a clear incentive to ask for help, particularly on the fuel side,” Acton said.
“Three to four years ago, when US-Russia relations were bad, but not catastrophic, I would have been quite skeptical that Russia would provide aid to Iran,” Acton added. “But in today’s circumstances, in which US-Russia relations are extremely bad and Russia-Iran relations are improving, I think the equation looks very different for Russia.”
The US withdrawal from the JCPOA has also likely increased Russia’s willingness to help Iran in this regard, Acton noted – and especially now that a new deal seems out of reach.
Russia played a key role throughout 2021 in the nuclear deal talks and even brokered some deals that allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency to proceed with inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities, effectively keeping the negotiations on track.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February, however, Russian officials appeared less invested in the deal. In June, Russia rejected a resolution proposed by the IAEA that criticized Iran for failing to cooperate with inspections of traces of uranium found at some undeclared nuclear sites in the country, a critical sticking point that helped derail the talks. That same month, a Russian delegation began making visits to an airport in Iran to examine weapons-capable drones—which Russia has now bought and used in Ukraine by the hundreds.
US officials have stressed in recent days and weeks that negotiations on the nuclear deal are deadlocked, at least for now. The Iranian regime’s brutal and brutal crackdown on protesters and its support for Russian military operations in Ukraine has made it increasingly difficult for senior Biden administration officials to envision a deal with Tehran that would provide it with an economic windfall in the form of mitigation of sanctions.
The US special envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, said on Monday that while the United States remains committed to diplomacy to curb Iran’s nuclear program, US officials are not going to “waste our time” on the nuclear deal “if nothing is going to happen. ”
Instead, the U.S. is now focusing on areas that can be “useful,” Maley said, such as supporting protesters in Iran and finding ways to stop Iranian arms transfers to Russia. He noted that the US still “prefers diplomacy” in dealing with Iran. But, he added, “we will use other tools, and as a last resort, a military option if necessary, to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
