Street protests have left at least 17 people dead in the past week, according to Iran’s state television. But despite this, and as protesters and police began a seventh day of street clashes on Thursday, analysts and diplomats doubt the outbreak of disorganized and leaderless political unrest could lead to the regime’s toppling or even to substantial change in inflexible Iran. multi-level systems of coercive control. “We should put aside all illusions that the Islamic Republic is ready to collapse,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the German Institute for International Affairs and Security, a think tank in Berlin. “The political system has a lot of potential in terms of means of repression that it has not yet resorted to. “But for too long we have been wrongly focusing on the precise political entity that may or may not emerge from this or that process. “For now, protest itself and the fate of society is more important than the nature of the future political system.” But analysts have identified different dimensions to the latest wave of political unrest that could shape Iran for years and perhaps change the calculus of Western leaders who, despite their distaste for the Iranian regime, seek to restore a nuclear deal with Tehran and possibly tap Iran’s vast energy resources to ease global oil and gas prices. Even skeptics warn that anything could happen in Iran. Some 45 years ago, few would have believed that street protests over a newspaper article that angered seminary students in the shrine city of Qom would months later lead to the collapse of the Iranian monarchy and the installation of a theocratic regime. The protests this month were sparked by the death on September 16 of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was arrested in Tehran by a notorious paramilitary unit that enforces Islamic dress codes on September 13 and fell into a coma while in custody under still unclear circumstances. . Overturned police car burns in Bojnurd, Iran (Reuters) Unlike previous protests rooted in specific economic or political grievances, this wave was sparked by a deeply emotional public response to the death of Amini, an ethnic Kurd whose family claimed she was physically abused by her captors. Fiery, violent protests have drawn people into the streets across Iran’s gender, political, economic and ethnic lines. They gathered in an unprecedented show of unity and collective anger targeting security forces and symbols of state power, including police stations, paramilitary group headquarters and public propaganda events. “This is different from previous protests,” said Mahdi Ghodsi, an Iran expert at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. “There is no leader at present, but leaders will emerge. This is a process that will take more time.” Iran has been here before. In 2009, following the disputed re-election of populist hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the presidency, hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to protest, sparking months of political unrest and repression. Since 2018, numerous outbreaks of political protests over economic frustration have rocked Iran. Both rounds of protest changed calculations abroad. Officials in Washington under Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump and elsewhere in the West saw them as an opportunity to replace the Islamic regime that took control of Iran after a 1979 revolution. But both cases failed to lead to political change and actually preceded the regime’s efforts to intensify repression and purge moderates from its ranks. Already, Iranian authorities appear to be preparing for a harsh crackdown, comparing the protesters to the jihadist group Isis. “In his conspiracy, the enemy gathered, mobilized and organized all his capabilities and armed them with the weapon of violence,” the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement on Thursday. Political scientists have long questioned the ability of protests to bring about change in places like Iran. In recent years, protests in Russia and Hong Kong have encouraged authoritarian leaders to step up the crackdown. The proliferation of sophisticated electronic surveillance tools has made it easier for determined authoritarians to suppress dissent. Iranian soldiers march during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the devastating 1980-1988 war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the capital Tehran on Thursday (AFP) In theory, street protests and subsequent waves of repression could fragment the ruling elite and bring about a political breakthrough. But Iran’s regime has systematically marginalized any potential reformers from its hierarchy, overwhelmingly bolstering the military, security services and religious hardliners fanatically loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The question of the effectiveness of protests is more than academic. Western policymakers are struggling to decide how much rhetorical or material support to offer the protesters. So far both the White House and the US State Department have offered relatively strong statements of support. “Today, we stand with the brave men and women of Iran who are right now protesting to secure their basic rights,” President Joe Biden said during his speech at the UN this week. The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has offered a more lukewarm press release call for the regime to show “restraint” in its efforts to quell the protests. Media in Saudi Arabia and Israel, which are hostile to Iran, amplified the protests, while those in friendly Iraq and Qatar downplayed them. In fact, many nations are confused about whether to adjust their policies on Iran to account for the wave of protests against the regime. “We can amplify Iran’s voices, for sure,” one Western official said. “But how do you capture the moment and turn it into real change?” Boosting the voices of Iranians could sway regime operatives, claw at their consciences and get them to speak up or at least stop the repression apparatus, if only quietly. “They stop showing up for work,” the official said. “They stop arresting people. The machines can’t work and the soldiers stay down. But how does it translate into political change with a new leader and a new system?” Many wonder what foreigners can do to help the protesters. On Thursday, Iranian authorities appeared to have blocked internet connections across much of the country, reducing the ability of protesters to communicate with each other and much of the world. Iranian protesters take to the streets of Tehran (AFP via Getty Images) Some supporters have latched onto a proposal by tech billionaire Elon Musk to smuggle Starlink internet satellite consoles into Iran. But such a project would involve high risks for those carrying and concealing such devices and would have no impact for weeks. Mr. Ghodsi suggested raising the status of Masih Alinejad, an outspoken exiled Iranian journalist and host of the popular Voice of America program who called on Iranian women to remove their headscarves and start a movement. “Masih Alinejad could be a great leader,” he said. “This movement owes to Masih. She is brave. She is gifted. Never in the world have we seen a woman lead a revolution.”
