“China and Cambodia have become iron brothers,” China’s ambassador to Cambodia, Wang Wentian, said at the ceremony. For years, reports circulated about the base, suggesting that Cambodia planned to grant exclusive use to the Chinese military. Such an arrangement would give Beijing improved access to the disputed South China Sea and signal a significant expansion of its military and economic influence in the Indo-Pacific. The United States has repeatedly expressed concern and accused Cambodia of lacking transparency in the agreement. This week, Cambodia reiterated its denials, saying China would not have exclusive access. “It can not be a port that would threaten any country,” said Defense Minister Thea Ban. Analysts say it is too early to fully understand the nature of the deal. “We know that China wants to project power farther from the Chinese mainland and to do that it needs to set up a logistics network to serve its naval vessels,” said Dr. Matthew P Funaiole of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS). ) who monitored the construction. However, Beijing is likely to be wary of any developments. “They know the word ‘base’ is likely to raise red flags, so try to skip that kind of phrase,” Funaiole added. Cambodia, China’s closest ally in Southeast Asia, is not surprisingly a growth partner. China has channeled billions of dollars into Cambodia through development aid, loans and other business deals. “This is an alliance of like-minded authoritarian states, one-party states that look at the way they operate,” said Sophal Ear, an associate professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University. . Hun Sen, who has ruled Cambodia for more than 37 years, has in turn supported China’s interests in regional meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), including the disputed South China Sea, where China and many ASEAN members have competing territorial claims. Reports of a possible Chinese military presence in Cambodia will be closely monitored by Vietnam, which has faced increased confidence from China in the disputed South China Sea. Others in the area are likely to feel uncomfortable about the possibility of escalating tensions. If China had a presence in Ream, it would be the country’s second foreign naval base, along with a facility in the East African country of Djibouti. The construction itself is carried out by the state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC), which signed a cooperation agreement with Cambodia in 2016. The Chinese company’s records describe it as “the main force in China’s infrastructure”. Ci Le Yi, a Taiwan-based military expert, said Beijing had spent years building its military force abroad. Its ambition is to create a “string of pearls” in military ports that would allow the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to park aircraft carriers and submarines, none of which are nuclear, for refueling. “Cambodia may be their first stop after leaving the South China Sea, followed by Bangladesh and then Sri Lanka,” Ci said. “Then they reach the Persian Gulf and North Africa and connect with Djibouti.”
A symptom of US neglect?
In 2021, a U.S. government report on China-related military developments commented that Beijing was “seeking additional military installations to support naval, air, ground, cyberspace, and space power” and that it had probably considered some countries. , including not only Cambodia but also neighboring Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and others as locations for PLA facilities. Analysts say such Southeast Asian countries are unlikely to be willing to do so, but add that the United States has neglected the region. Frequent US public outcry over Ream shows a “lack of leverage and relevance,” said Evan Laksmana, a senior fellow at the Center for Asia and Globalization at National University of Singapore. They are also unlikely to yield results, he added. “Once it is made public, then the domestic political stakes so that Cambodia does not retreat will increase.” A common complaint in Southeast Asia is that “the United States is binding us only because of China. But if there is no China, then most likely, we are just a later thought, “said Collin Koh, a researcher at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies. If the US wants to build trust, it must be more consistent and offer something other than a focus on security, he added. Trying to present itself as a human rights activist is also unlikely to win the leaders of Southeast Asia, Laksmana added. “The United States does not have as strong a moral standard as it wants to believe in Southeast Asia. So a values-based approach does not really have an impact. “ Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at Beijing-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said China saw itself as a future international leader whose global influence would eventually reach and possibly surpass that of the United States. However, he said the process of establishing a military presence abroad would be gradual, with Beijing preferring to keep a low profile and avoid “international suspicion”. “Chinese experts seem to believe that as China gradually expands its military influence, from its own neighborhood to areas off its coast, the international community will become accustomed to the presence of a larger Chinese power and over time could to develop an increasingly favorable view of it, “he said. “For many Chinese experts, this is how new changes in the international balance of power are made and normalized.” Chi Hui Lin contributed to the report
