Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI) barely cracked 4% of the vote in 2018, but the party is expected to take around 25% this time and push an alliance of conservative partners to a clear parliamentary majority. “There’s this idea in Italy that we’ve tried everyone else, so let’s try it now,” said Wolfango Piccoli, the co-chairman of political risk consultancy Teneo. Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSign up If hardline Meloni succeeds, she will face a number of daunting challenges, including rising energy costs, a suffocating mountain of debt, a possible recession and an increasingly dangerous conflict in Ukraine. The 45-year-old from Rome, who promises to crack down on immigration and cut taxes, will also have big shoes to fill. Outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the widely respected former head of the European Central Bank, was seen as a reassuring figure by international investors but resigned in July after a mutiny in his national unity government. Unlike every other major party leader, Meloni refused to join Draghi’s coalition and instead saw her popularity soar from the opposition benches, where she deftly denounced the government’s painful measures to tackle the crisis of COVID-19. “Meloni is a great communicator, but she faces significant financial constraints and doesn’t have much experience, so she probably won’t enjoy a long honeymoon,” Piccoli said.
CLOSER COMPETITION?
Meloni could also end up with a far smaller majority than analysts had predicted when a blackout took effect on September 9, or even fall slightly short, paving the way for the kind of political instability that regularly plagues Italy . Ten days ago, the right-wing bloc, which includes Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, was seen taking around 45% of the vote — a rating it should have more than 60% of all parliamentary seats. But since then there has been widespread speculation that Salvini’s League, under constant attack for its historically close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has retreated while the leftist 5-Star Movement has risen. Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni blows a kiss during the center-right coalition’s final election rally in Piazza del Popolo, ahead of the September 25 general election, in Rome, Italy, September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Yara Nardi read more Adding to the uncertainty, voters will elect a parliament with the number of Lower House seats reduced to 400 from 630, while the Senate goes to 200 seats from 315. This complicates efforts to predict the outcome. “One effect of the reduction in the number of Senate seats is that it takes relatively few percentage points to go from a huge majority to a very reduced majority,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of YouTrend polls.
NEO-FASCIST ROOTS
The election campaign took place in the shadow of a summer, with little sign of much voter interest and no televised debate between the various party leaders. The right-wing bloc has made old promises to cut taxes, lower the retirement age and prevent migrants from reaching Italy by boat from North Africa, with Meloni proposing a naval blockade to prevent the sea movement of refugee seekers. Opponents say such a move would be illegal and unenforceable. 5-Star has pledged to protect welfare benefits for the poor — a message that resonates in the less affluent South, which leaders across the political spectrum have crossed over in recent days as they look to win over an army of undecided voters. The main centre-left Democratic Party has repeatedly warned that Meloni’s election is dangerous because of the FdI’s neo-fascist origins and its ties to Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orbán, who has been accused by the European Union of abusing the rule of law. Meloni has played down her own far-right past, saying her group is a mainstream force similar to Britain’s Conservative Party and has consistently supported Ukraine in its war with Russia. But on the campaign trail she was careful not to alienate those core supporters associated with the far right. “I dream of a nation where people who had to keep their heads down for many years, pretending to have different ideas to avoid being ostracized, can now speak their minds,” he told a rally earlier this week. Voting takes place on Sunday from 7.00 am. until 11.00 p.m. (05:00-21:00 GMT), with full results by Monday morning. Even if there is a clear result, the next government is unlikely to take office before the end of October, with the new parliament not meeting until October 13. Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comSign up Reporting by Crispian Balmer Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
