Fair or not, the team’s 4-4-2 record isn’t just about the first 10 games of the season. It’s a powder keg that always sits there because, for this organization as currently constructed, this is do-or-die time. It’s about general manager Kyle Dubas not being offered a contract extension last summer, which came after the team lost in the first round of the playoffs — which came after other first-round struggles in previous years. No one is panicking about Lightning’s so-so launch. For obvious reasons. When the Leafs decided not to extend Dubas, they notified everyone in the organization, including the players. And they can’t help but feel it, whether they admit it or not. And that’s Auston Matthews, who likely has until the end of this season to decide if he plans to extend with the Leafs. His current contract expires and he becomes an unrestricted free agent after the 2023-24 season. I still think he’ll want to re-sign with the Leafs. But the point is, this is another major franchise decision looming, and wouldn’t it be easier to make that decision if the team ends up doing something in the playoffs? There’s so much riding on this season for so many people, and since the offseason in camp, people from other organizations have told me they could sense that tension in Toronto’s front office. And I mean, it’s understandable. People’s jobs are on the line. What I didn’t see coming, and perhaps should have given what’s at stake, was this level of drama this early in the season. I figured this team would pretty much roll through the regular season, finish first or second in the Atlantic, and then we’d make playoff drama regardless of the final outcome. But since training camp, head coach Sheldon Keefe has hinted at his level of concern through his actions, whether he dropped an F-bomb during a camp drill or sent a series of postgame comments to his players since kickoff of the evening in Montreal. Some of his comments early in the season have certainly gone down in the league. I asked Keefe during his daily media availability the morning of an Oct. 20 game against the Stars if he intended to approach the season this way or if it was central reactions. He replied, “Well, it’s a little bit of both. It’s a combination of the fact that we had talked before the season started about the importance of being really consistent and having our game, as often as we can, look like ourselves. Since Game 1, that hasn’t been the case. Even though a lot of good things happen in the preseason and you have a lot of confidence, you go out there and it doesn’t seem like it. “For a team that’s been together as long as ours – I know we’ve got new players and things like that – but obviously the identity of our team and the core of our team has stayed the same. So there is an expectation that you would start at a very high level. And you don’t. So it was disappointing.” Specifically, he was then referring to losses to the Habs and Coyotes. “We’ve been talking about not leaving those points on the table and it’s (with) the schedule, we have two opponents there that were teams we struggled with last season,” Keefe continued. “And the expectation (is) that we’ve improved there, and we haven’t. So, I think (the sharp criticism of the players is) more just a symptom than anything else. “I don’t know if I had a game plan for how I was going to approach the early transition here other than to say there’s a lot of expectation that our team will continue to grow and have a good start to the season (and), especially in these types of games, we would be better. And we haven’t been.” First off, I appreciate the honesty in this answer. And since then, there have been losses to San Jose and Anaheim, which would likely again be the kind of teams Keefe was referring to. My take on Keefe’s intense behavior with his players this early in the season is that he’s trying to get the foundation as right as possible come playoff time, rather than waiting until then to turn up the decibel level. Which I get. Don’t cram for your final exam at the last minute. Do the work in advance. But along the way, he apparently risks alienating his top players, as intrepid Leafs writer Jonas Siegel wondered after the Ducks’ loss and Mitch Marner’s benching that was heard around the world. The benching of one of the team’s most important players sends a very strong message. But it’s also a risky decision that could backfire on Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe if he loses Mitch Marner’s support, @jonassiegel writes. — The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) October 31, 2022 All of this, of course, has the media and Toronto fans wondering just how hot the Keefe position is. One thing to consider: Not that Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment is counting their pennies, but remember that MLSE is still paying Mike Babcock this season through June 30 for a year ago at $5.8 million. Keefe is making just under $2 million in salary for each season this season and next. If you fire Keefe, you’re paying two guys just $7.8 million this season not to coach. Gulp. It’s MLSE, so maybe that’s a drop in the bucket, but then add any salary associated with a new coach, especially if it’s a brand new coach. MLSE would be in double digits overall this year between the new coach and the two former coaches. For example, Barry Trotz isn’t coming to Toronto for anything less than $5 million a year, in my mind anyway. Speaking to Trotz in September, it was clear that while he eventually wanted to return to an NHL bench, he wasn’t quite ready yet. He needs more time to deal with things in his personal life. My understanding is that Trotz wouldn’t be ready to entertain an NHL return until December at the earliest. In any case, I don’t think a coaching change is the first thing the Leafs should look at if things don’t improve. Instead, I agree with our Leafs columnist James Mirtle that the first thing I would look at, as difficult as it is so far from the March 3rd trade deadline, is to make a trade to help the roster. Why the Leafs need to be active in the trade market before any other big moves — James Mirtle (@mirtle) November 1, 2022 I understand it’s tough in a flat cap world early in the season, but look at these two deals in Vancouver last week. Nothing major, but it’s little tweaks that could help the team. Personally? I think it’s too early for this level of panic in the Toronto market. I believe this team will move on. I reached out to several opposing front-office executives to see if they agreed, asking them for their honest opinions on the Leafs. Some politely declined to comment because it’s too early, but others responded (via text and on the condition of anonymity, of course): Team exec No. 1: “Being .500 10 games in and two points out of the playoffs…let’s not panic here!! Obviously they need to understand that, but it’s too early to panic.” Team No. 2: “I’d be a little nervous if I were them. … They haven’t looked great so far. I still think it’s very likely they’ll make the playoffs, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed and the bar for them is higher than that.” Team exec No. 3: “There are 72 races ahead, many corridors. This team will continue.” Team exec No. 4: “It’s too early to panic. The games I’ve watched, it was really how inconsistent they were during the game. They looked great then just awful. I thought before the season the goaltending was a concern, but (Ilya) Samsonov has been solid. Offensively they have a top five in the league, maybe even the top three. Defensively they need to defend as a five-man unit and be proud of it. Also, losing to all these weak teams just shows me that they have no killer instinct. They go into games thinking it will be easy. So that’s up to the coaches to prepare them. With all that said, I think they’ll be fine.” The reality of the situation is that the kind of major changes that some Leafs fans are clamoring for don’t usually happen in-season. Those who want Dubas fired, for example, and want a new GM in his place, to me that’s offseason work when you have access to a larger field of candidates. And more profound roster changes are easier to make in June than midseason. There are simply more groups willing to talk about things when there is more flexibility. That doesn’t mean changes won’t come if the season goes off the rails. Chances are it will be. But I still think the more likely scenario is that the Leafs get back on track and we wait until the spring for that true final examination of the organization, one way or another. (Top photo: Debora Robinson / NHLI via Getty Images)
