The most important of these will be a process of installation rather than election. China’s Communist Party begins its five-year congress on Sunday, the most notable issue of which will be handing a historic third leadership term to President Xi Jinping. The outlook is not good — “a tragic mistake,” according to the FT’s chief economic editor, Martin Woolf. A pressing concern for Xi’s government is the collapse of the housing market, which along with the zero-Covid policy and difficult economic conditions have hindered China’s strong growth path, which for the first time since the early 1990s will is behind the rest of Asia this year, according to the World Bank. Freeing the Chinese consumer to spend more is the obvious way to restore growth. The problem for Xi and his top lieutenants with this solution is that doing so would mean giving up some of their political power. Before all comes another point of tension for Beijing. Monday is the official National Day holiday in Taiwan, and the country’s taciturn president Tsai Ing-wen will give a speech. China claims Taiwan as its territory. Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party would like it to no longer be considered British government territory. Sturgeon will make this clear in her closing speech to her party conference on Monday. A day later, the SNP’s dangerous plan for a new referendum on the issue will be heard by the UK High Court. The British government refused to grant powers to hold a new vote. The two-day Supreme Court hearing is expected to conclude on Wednesday. If the court agrees with the UK government, it would not necessarily be the end of the SNP’s bid for a second referendum, but it would almost certainly destroy Sturgeon’s stated aim of holding a vote in October 2023, because she would have to pass legislation. London’s landmark Battersea Power Station reopens in a new form as a retail, leisure and residential building © Jason Hawkes Speaking of second chances, but away from the talk of votes, this Friday sees the re-opening of London’s Battersea Power Station in a new guise as a retail, leisure and residential building. That sounds like good news in times of turmoil. Expectations are heightened by the building’s four chimneys, one of which you can climb — for a fee — in a glass elevator. And the £9 billion refurbishment, completed after several previous attempts failed, is so cool that Apple is getting a few floors for its British workforce. Whatever your view, the restoration of this iconic 1930s building is boosting the local housing market.
Financial data
It’s a quieter start to the week for markets with the US closed for Columbus Day. However, we will make up for it as the week progresses. Inflation is an issue (will it never be?), driven by data from the US and China. The Fed will also release minutes from its September meeting, which will be watched for clues about its future intentions to tighten monetary policy to curb the rising cost of living. The annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank also begin on Monday in Washington and will continue throughout the week.
Companies
This week will be a mixed bag of results, but a few areas will feature prominently as the reporting period begins. A buoyant labor market is expected to have helped recruitment firms PageGroup and Robert Walters deliver higher quarterly net fees. But their trading updates will be watched for signs of easing demand as inflation and recession fears grow. The week will close with a rush of third-quarter results from Wall Street banks, likely to fuel fears of a US recession. Citi, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are all publishing on Friday – Bank of America and Goldman Sachs will follow next week – and analysts expect those six institutions to total more than $4 billion. dollars to cover potential losses from bad loans. On the plus side, third-quarter earnings at JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells are expected to have risen year-on-year by around 4%, thanks to higher net interest income after the Fed’s rate hike, our US banking reporter notes . Goldman and Morgan Stanley, which derive a larger share of profits from investment banking, are likely to report a drop in revenue due to a drop in trading activity. Read the full calendar for the week here.