Wisconsin voters are expressing what issues matter most to them ahead of the Nov. 8 general election. Ebony Cox, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Wisconsin’s two major political races are tossups, according to Wednesday’s Marquette University Law School poll, as the Nov. 8 election heads to the polls. In the closely watched race that could determine the party’s control of the U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has a 2-point lead among likely voters over Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, who has rallied within the margin for the past three weeks research errors. Johnson was at 50% and Barnes at 48% among likely voters. “The correct characterization is that this is clearly a toss-up race at this point,” poll director Charles Franklin said. The governor’s race, which has been upbeat for months, has become a dead heat among potential voters. Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican businessman Tim Michels were tied, 48 percent to 48 percent. More: Mandela Barnes, Ron Johnson make it personal as attacks intensify in hotly contested US Senate race Very close to the election, pollsters zero in on likely voters, those who have either voted or say they will vote on Election Day. Perhaps even more important than the survey snapshot, Franklin said the poll shows voter turnout could reach the level it reached in 2018. About 2.7 million Wisconsinites went to the polls, then a number without predecessor for an interim term. Franklin noted that the Senate survey showed “Democrats are coming home to Mandela Barnes. It’s not a huge swing, but a swing in his favor.” Johnson had a 7-point lead among independents. The Senate race has seen significant movement throughout the campaign. Barnes emerged from the August primary with a 7-point lead over Johnson among registered voters. But in early September, Johnson had a 1-point lead. In mid-October, Johnson took the reins by a 6-point margin among likely voters, winning 52% to 46% support over Barnes. Franklin said the survey data for the governor’s race is “eerily similar” to 2018, when Evers topped Republican Gov. Scott Walker, as “Walker’s very modest lead evaporated into a clean tie in the latest poll.” . “That’s what we’re seeing this time,” Franklin said. “Well, pure twist. I don’t know what else to call it.” In the governor’s race, the Marquette poll showed Evers leading Michel since June. But significantly, the Democratic governor has not broken the 50% mark. He had a 1-point lead in mid-October. A wildcard in the governor’s race could be independent candidate Joan Beglinger, who remains on the ballot despite stopping campaigning and throwing her support behind Michels. He was at 2% in the poll. The survey data in the two at-large races comes as Democrats continue to face significant political divides, with just 34 percent saying the state is headed the right way, while 58 percent say the state is headed the wrong way. Only 41% of voters approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing, with 54% disapproving. The new survey results boosted the Michels campaign. “These numbers tell us what we’ve known all along — the race is going to be extremely close,” said Michels campaign manager Patrick McNulty. In terms of favorability, Evers was rated favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 46%, while Michels’ favorable-unfavorable rating stood at 39% each. In the Senate race, Barnes was a net negative of 4 points (40% favorable, 44% unfavorable), while Johnson was a clear negative of 3 points (43% favorable, 46% unfavorable). More: The 6 questions the Nov. 8 election will answer about Wisconsin politics Inflation (68%) remains the number one issue for voters, followed by public schools (62%), crime (57%), gun violence (56%) and accurate vote counting (56%). “Abortion policy (52%) is pretty far down the list,” Franklin said, although the issue remains vital to 81% of Democrats, who listed it as their top concern. 37 percent favored the US Supreme Court decision. for the conviction of Roe v. Wade, while 55% were opposed. Eighty-four percent said abortion in Wisconsin should be allowed in cases of rape or incest. The state’s 1849 law prohibits abortion in most cases. In terms of the next state budget, 29% supported increasing state support for students to attend private schools, while 63% favored increasing funding for public schools. “Just remember polls don’t vote. People vote. It’s up to you. It’s not up to the poll,” Franklin said. The survey of 802 registered Wisconsin voters was conducted Oct. 24-Nov. 1 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. For 679 likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The sample was 30% Republican, 28% Democrat, and 41% independent. More: 5 key background checks on Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and GOP challenger Tim Michels Our subscribers make this report possible. Consider supporting local journalism by subscribing to the Journal Sentinel at jsonline.com/deal.
