It has been seven weeks since the Russian army abandoned its ill-conceived offensive in Kyiv and concentrated its forces in Donbass, where Ukrainian troops faced incessant bombardment by their best-armed opponents and often suffered casualties in . The constant bombardment has affected the morale of the battlefield, reflecting a dark mood in Kyiv as the Russian army uses its advantages in mass artillery to make gradual progress in Donbass and its weeks-long effort to occupy the provincial capital.

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Western defense officials and military analysts say Russia’s overwhelming progress in Luhansk, part of Ukraine’s eastern Donbass industrialized region, is not in itself a decisive turning point in the war. “Strategically, it is not clear who, if any, credible high-level targets Russia is trying to achieve by force,” a Western official said. “There is a sense of strategic improvisation. . .[and] “Its armed forces are increasingly facing strategic shortages of basic ammunition and capabilities.” Even so, Ukraine’s rhetorical retreat is striking in comparison to the optimism it enjoyed for a while in April, as its troops defeated Russian forces around the capital and forced them to retreat near the border. Ukrainian soldier opens fire as Russian barricades intensify © Gleb Garanich / Reuters Shortly after his visit to the front lines, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, told the Financial Times via video link this week: “Victory must be achieved on the battlefield.” But he added: “We are inferior in terms of equipment. . . we are not able to move forward. . .[and] we will have more losses “. The central problem for the Ukrainians fighting in Donbas is the mismatch of artillery capabilities. As some Russian weapons have a longer range, its ground forces can be withdrawn from the fight. “There is no moral problem for the regular members of the armed forces; they hold high and carry out orders, but they want to kill the enemy and not sit in their place as food for cannons,” said Oleksandr V Danylyuk, head of the Kyiv headquarters. The Center for Defense Reform, a think tank, said. “We do not have the range and quantity of artillery,” Danylyuk added. “We are shooting once. They shoot 40 times. They respond to each of our blows at least 20 times “. The casualties of Ukraine are increasing. The country’s defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, said on Thursday that “up to 100 of our soldiers were killed and up to 500 were injured every day.” . . “The Kremlin continues to push massively.” Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told the BBC that 200 soldiers were being killed every day. Morale is particularly low among territorial defense fighters who do not have the combat experience of regular troops. A bill sent to Ukraine’s parliament on May 5 that would give officers more leeway to punish rebel soldiers was considered and rejected less than two weeks later. Russia’s intelligence service has denied the allegations in a statement issued Friday stating “Similar, baseless allegations concerning Russia’s intelligence have been made more than once. According to the Ukrainian intelligence service, SMS messages are being sent to soldiers threatening to harm themselves and their families, and that Sievirodonetsk will become another Mariupol, the Ukrainian port that was effectively demolished by Russian artillery. Many videos posted on social media, which may be part of Russia’s propaganda effort, also show Ukrainian soldiers complaining about poor conditions, lack of food and the need for rest. In one, a captive scout says: “Rarely did food come out. The injured were not transported. “After a while, many guys laid down their arms.” In another, a squad leader says: “Morale is so low that no one can do it anymore. Everyone is exhausted. . . We have no equipment, nothing to fight except AK-47 “. “The videos are difficult to impossible to verify, but they are not unbelievable,” said Samuel Cranny-Evans, a military analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in London. “Like the foreign volunteers who went to the front, the Ukrainian territorial defense volunteers found that the high-intensity war is tough and even more difficult if there is no support.”

In time, the long-range missiles repeatedly requested by Ukraine and promised by the United States and the United Kingdom will reach the front lines and will be manned by Ukrainian troops trained to use them. Whether they will arrive in time to prevent the occupation of Sievirodonetsk is another matter. And even if the West eventually sends the hundreds of missile systems Ukraine has demanded, according to a source close to the president, Zelenskyy privately envisions a war that could last for years, depleting Ukraine’s population as the economy collapses and people are moving to Europe. But Russia has its own race against time. His army is throwing everything it has – apart from nuclear weapons, Podolyak said – at the Battle of Donbass. This includes, according to front-line reports, expensive and disproportionately powerful Iskander ballistic missiles to occupy small Ukrainian positions. Russian forces are suffering from low morale, are having trouble recruiting new forces and are facing political pressure to make progress so that Moscow can announce its occupation of Luhansk. The victims are also increasing. The UK Department of Defense estimates that up to 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fighting, up from an estimated 15,000 in May, while Ukraine estimates that 31,200 Russians were killed compared to 26,350 a month ago.