Although maybe you shouldn’t. There’s been a tendency early this season by some to write off the Maple Leafs’ struggles as a redux version of what happened last year, when they got off to a slow start and then played at a 119-point pace from Nov. 1 onward. Only Colorado was better in this regard. However, there are many differences between this slow start and this one. First, Auston Matthews is not undergoing major surgery. For another, goaltending hasn’t really been the problem it was a year ago when Michael Hutchinson was somehow still starting games. More importantly, I’d argue that the Leafs faced a very weak schedule – one of the easiest in the entire league so far – and their underlying results in terms of stick possession and expected goals were extremely mediocre. They don’t score. They don’t defend well. They don’t control the game and just get unlucky. It really is, to put it charitably, now. The easy part of the Leafs’ schedule is essentially over as of this weekend, too, with a back-to-back against Boston and Carolina looming. The rest of the way, the Leafs have one of the toughest runs of any team. If they can’t fix some of the things that are bothering them relatively quickly, major changes will be needed. This isn’t really news if you’ve been following the latest storms here in town. Various media outlets and betting sites have had Sheldon Keefe on the hot seat since the start of the campaign, and this latest four-game losing streak has only marked 11. And I get it. The coach is often the first to go in such situations. They’re more expendable than big-money stars, especially in a tight environment where roughly two-thirds of the league is either on long-term injury reserve or within half a million of the $82.5 million cap hit. Keefe hasn’t been perfect in his tenure with the Leafs, but he has a .669 fielding percentage — one of the highest in league history — and led them to a 115-point campaign a year ago. It also doesn’t account for a lot of roster crap, including a lack of scoring options in the bottom six and a lack of defensive depth with Jake Muzzin, Timothy Liljegren and Jordie Benn all out. I think they should give him more time to right the ship. And they should give him more to work with. That brings us to the primary alternative to firing the coach in early November — a trade. While the start of the season isn’t the best time to be looking in the NHL trade market, and the Leafs are going to be dealing with a losing situation, GM Kyle Dubas has one thing going for him. With Muzzin on LTIR — likely for the rest of the season from what I’m hearing — Toronto can put a large portion of his $5.625 million salary to work on the open market. Some of that should go to Liljegren, who just played a few games with the Marlies over the weekend as part of a rehab assignment. But even in a worst-case scenario, the Leafs would have an extra $4 million in financial flexibility, which the vast majority of teams likely to be in the playoff race simply don’t have. At best, Dubas could look to trade some of his underperforming players as part of any move, freeing up even more salary cap space. Some of the top candidates to shake things up could be Justin Holl ($2 million), Pierre Engvall ($2.25 million), Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5 million) or Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1 million). If they keep losing, maybe some even bigger names are in the mix. Even without removing a major roster piece, however, the Leafs are now in position to be players for a difference-maker in a deal — assuming some of what they give up consists of prospects or picks. (D. Ross Cameron / USA Today) Jakob Chychrun is a name out there, though given that he’s played almost exclusively on the left side and with his recent injury history, there are some buyer-beware factors there. (The coyotes’ asking price is also high.) John Klingberg is an interesting idea, with the Ducks in freefall. He’s only on a one-year deal and could help with Toronto’s problems on the right side. Any other pending UFAs the Leafs could target? Vladislav Gavrikov in Columbus is very intriguing given how strong he is defensively. Damon Severson, Scott Mayfield, Shayne Gostisbehere, Dmitry Kulikov, Justin Braun, Kevin Shattenkirk and Troy Stecher are also potential hires, and all can play right side. Defense is top of mind with how badly some of the Leafs’ blueliners are swinging, but they could also use their cap space to find scoring help for the under-six forward group or look to add another goaltender to upgrade to third string Erik Kallgren. With the injuries they’ve had early on, the Leafs have fielded a lineup that’s about $10 million under the cap some nights. Recouping at least some of that by spending Muzzin’s salary will be vital in the coming months. The Leafs have had little luck making these midseason deals come to fruition since adding Muzzin nearly four years ago. They also acquired Jack Campbell in a similar predicament and bolstered their blue line twice before the season by bringing in Ilya Lyubushkin and Mark Giordano. It can be done. But aside from improving the roster, the other positive about the trade route is the message it sends, especially if it involves sending away a long-time teammate, even one who plays below the lineup. The message is, in part, that the Leafs aren’t just going to fire the coach at the first sign of trouble. It’s also a signal that more offers could be coming if they continue to falter. Because, frankly, this looks a lot like a group of players who could use some of that outside motivation. (Leafs sadness top photo: Debora Robinson / NHLI via Getty Images)
