Can Cincinnati turn the tide in Cleveland without the services of Ja’Marr Chase?
Bengals vs. Browns Matchup Analysis
Enable the drop-down menus below to hide or show how the Bengals and Browns match up statistically: Bengals vs. Browns DVOA Analysis Overall DVOA 13 28 Pass the DVOA 9 28 Rush DVOA 20 27 Overall DVOA 8 6 Pass the DVOA 16 7 Rush DVOA 2 10 Not having to deal with Chase is a major break for a Browns defense that will once again be without top cornerback Denzel Ward (concussion). The Browns’ pass rush is getting healthier, with neither Myles Garrett nor Jadeveon Clowney reporting an injury for the first time since Week 2. Chase’s absence is likely to force Joe Burrow to hold onto the ball more on some plays, and the Browns’ pass rush will be able to hit home against a Bengals offensive line that has allowed 25 sacks, second-most in the NFL . Bet Monday Night FootballBengals -3.5 | Brown +3.5 The Bengals’ passing offense will struggle without Chase, even if Burrow is able to get the ball out. Since entering the league, Burrow has averaged 10.26 yards per attempt and a 9.7% touchdown rate when targeting Chase compared to 7.64 yards per attempt and a 4.4% touchdown rate for everyone else . Losing Chase also makes it more difficult for the Bengals’ other receivers. Here are the numbers for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd with and without Chase since Burrow was drafted:
Higgins with Chase: 9.6 targets, 6.3 receptions, 93.1 yards, 0.50 TD Higgins non-pursued: 7.1 targets, 4.5 receptions, 60.5 yards, 0.40 TD Boyd with Chase: 7.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, 66.0 yards, 0.43 TD Boyd without Chase: 7.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, 56.1 yards, 0.27 TD
The Browns finally got their leaky run defense under control against the Ravens last week, allowing just 97 yards on 33 carries to Ravens running backs (2.94 yards per carry). The Bengals’ running game has struggled most of the season, ranking 20th in DVOA. In fact, it’s the Bengals’ shaky defense that may play a bigger role in this game, as the Browns average 31.7 rushing attempts per game, the fifth most in the NFL. Bengals really miss inside lineman DJ Reader (IR-knee). With Reader in the lineup in Weeks 1-3, the Bengals allowed a 33.8 percent completion percentage, fifth best in the league, according to RBSDM.com. Without Reader in Weeks 4-7, that mark dropped to 45.0%, 23rd. With Kareem Hunt on the trading block, the Bengals will likely face an even heavier than usual dose of Nick Chubb, who leads the NFL in rushing yards (740) and rushing touchdowns (8) while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. That’s all you can ask of the Browns from a situational standpoint. At 2-5 and needing a win to save their season, they will be the most desperate team and playing in front of a raucous Dawg Pound. Their opponent just lost their best offensive player, struggles to stop the defense, and has found ways to lose in those spots for the better part of two-plus decades. According to Action Labs data, road division favorites that have covered 70% or more of their games are just 46-71-2 (39%) ATS since 2005, failing to cover by 1.75 points per game. The Browns have also had some bad luck this season, which tends to create value. According to the Action Network Luck Rankings, the Browns are ranked 30th in luck while the Bengals are 17th, a difference of 13 spots. A luck differential of 10 or more spots this season has yielded a 25-14 (64%) ATS record. Quickslip: Browns +3.5 | Bet on +3 How would you rate this article?
