Trevor Mahlmann On Friday afternoon, senior NASA officials joined a conference call to talk to reporters about the current plan to launch the Artemis I mission from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. This will be the third attempt to lift off the massive Space Launch System rocket and propel the Orion spacecraft into lunar orbit for a test flight of about 40 days without a crew before returning to Earth. The missile is ready, officials said. During fueling tests and launch attempts, NASA has been plagued by hydrogen propellant leaks, as the tiny molecule is difficult to handle and confined to extremely cold temperatures. But after a longer-than-expected but ultimately successful propellant loading test Wednesday, NASA engineers expressed confidence in the revamped fueling procedures. NASA has also reached an agreement with US Space Force officials to extend battery life for the rocket’s onboard flight termination system. That left only weather as a possible constraint on a planned launch attempt for Tuesday, Sept. 27, at 11:37 a.m. EST (15:37 UTC). The problem is that the weather is now a major threat to the schedule with a tropical depression likely to track toward Florida in the coming days. There is an 80 percent chance of unacceptable weather during the launch window.

To roll, or not to roll

Despite the bleak predictions, NASA is moving forward. “Our Plan A is to stay the course and launch on the 27th,” said Mike Bolger, the director of NASA’s Earth System Exploration Program at Kennedy Space Center. “We also realize that we really need to be careful and think about a plan B.” Bolger explained that NASA’s backup plan involved rolling the rocket and spacecraft back to the large vehicle assembly building a few miles from the launch site, where it would be protected from the elements. Preparing the missile and flipping it would take about three days, he said. NASA hopes to wait a day, until Saturday, to make a final decision. NASA officials will meet again Friday afternoon to review the weather. These comments made sense, and it is prudent for NASA to ensure it has the best data available on Tropical Depression Nine, which only recently developed a circulation center. As a result, forecasts should improve over the next day or two. Advertising
This is a delicate balance for NASA—waiting long enough to get the best forecast, but also allowing enough time to bring the rocket back up and free employees from the space center before the worst of the storm arrives. According to the National Hurricane Center Friday afternoon, the earliest “reasonable time of arrival” for tropical storm-force winds is around noon Tuesday, so the wait until Saturday morning would be limited.

Except for the rails

After Bolger’s comments, however, the conference call began to go somewhat off the rails. It became clear that NASA officials were not just waiting for forecast data, but were reluctant to drop the SLS rocket back into its hangar. John Blevins, SLS’s chief engineer, indicated that he would not be willing to roll the rocket back into its hangar even if the space center was hit by a tropical storm, which packs less wind than a hurricane but still packs a significant punch. . “If we actually experienced a real hurricane, it would be my recommendation that we consider going back,” Blevins said. “Usually, the footprint of these things isn’t that wide, you know, for these high winds.” Based on NASA’s risk analyses, Blevins said he believed the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft could withstand winds of up to 74.1 knots (85 mph) at 60 feet above the ground. The primary risk is wind loads on the vehicle, but he acknowledged there would be concerns about “things that might move in such a storm.” This is a somewhat odd risk-taking stance from a space agency that is constantly concerned about “foreign object debris” with its space hardware. Zoom / Forecast from the European model at 12z for maximum wind gusts by Wednesday 28 September. Weather bell So what’s the upside of risking the rocket and spacecraft, developed at a cost of over $30 billion, in a tropical system? Pending the weather, NASA seeks to maintain the opportunity to launch on September 27 or October 2. Otherwise, he will need to return to the hangar independently. Doing so will likely push the next launch attempt to the second half of November. “Some limited-life items would come out in that case,” Blevins said. This seemed to be an admission that for NASA, the clock is ticking on a rocket that has been fully stacked for launch for almost a year now, and which has critical components that cannot be serviced in this configuration. In short, NASA officials would love to get off the pillow as soon as possible.