First there were US and South Korean warplanes, more than 240 of them led by F-35s configured for both their air forces, then North Korea’s warnings of retaliation, followed by volleys after North Korean missile launches and shootings. North Korean gunners kept up the pace Thursday, firing an intercontinental ballistic missile of the kind that could theoretically deliver a warhead to the U.S. The missile did not fly over Japan, as initially feared, but dramatized the North’s strategy to intimidate the US and its two Northeast Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, as residents of Japan’s northern prefectures were urged to seek refuge. North Korea also launched two more short-range missiles on top of all those launched on Wednesday. With each shot it looked like war was getting closer, especially after two shots from North Korea sent waves south of the so-called Northern Limit Line below which North Korean ships are prohibited. North Korea does not recognize the dotted lines on maps drawn by the Americans and South Koreans after the end of the Korean War, and proved it Wednesday with a missile fired near a dark South Korean island called Ulleungdo, 75 miles from the east coast – enough to set off air raid sirens on the island. It also prompted the South to launch some of its own missiles and prompted South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol to promise that the North would pay “a clear price for the provocations.” But how far would the North Koreans be willing to go? And would Kim Jong Un follow suit by ordering the North’s seventh nuclear test, its first since September 2017? “I honestly don’t know,” said Joseph De Trani, a veteran American negotiator who had gone head-to-head with the North Koreans before they broke off all talks more than a decade ago. DeTrani insisted, however, that the U.S. and South Korea should stick to their weapons, insisting on “complete denuclearization,” even though Kim has made it clear how much he loves his nukes and missiles. Kim Jong Un has recently been talking about “tactical nukes” capable of hitting small targets like a bridge or an airport, but North Korea does much better with plain old artillery shells, about 100 of which North Korean gunners fired off its east coast. what both sides had agreed would be a “buffer zone” between them. In fact, the North is so good at making them that it is “covertly” selling them to Russia, according to John Kirby, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council. This transaction dovetails perfectly with Kim’s professed full support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, for which he was earlier reported to have considered sending North Korean troops. People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with archive footage of a North Korean missile test at a train station in Seoul on November 2, 2022.
Jung Yeon-Je/AFP via Getty
The North Koreans, of course, had given plenty of warning about what they might do if the US and South Koreans went through with this week’s exercise. As the US and South Korea sent warplanes near the demilitarized zone, the North’s foreign ministry ominously warned of “stronger monitoring measures”. However, for the US and South Korea, contempt was the operative word, all in line with President Yun’s policy of getting tough on the North after five years of failed appeasement efforts by his liberal predecessor. US and South Korean warplanes did just that, taking off from several different bases, supporting Marines and soldiers on the ground, showing what they could do if Kim Jong Un took another fatal step and actually ordered a strike against him. South as he was he was threatening. In a show of air power, US B52 and B1 heavy bombers based in Guam and Japan were also expected to take part in the parade, refueled in flight by an Australian KC30A tanker plane in a show of allied solidarity. “I don’t think it will escape Pyongyang’s attention.” The war games – the biggest aerial display by the US and South Korea since the early years after the Korean War – matched the North Koreans’ biggest display of their growing missile expertise. Having already launched more than 40 missiles this year, Kim ordered his forces to fire at least 25 more short- and medium-range missiles as evidence that he could easily hit US and South Korean bases. The most obvious target would be Camp Humphreys, the largest US overseas base, the headquarters of the 28,500 US troops now stationed in South Korea. Several miles away from Humphreys is Osan Air Force Base, home of the US Seventh Air Force, from which most of the planes flew. The war games, first the US and South Korean aerial show of force and then North Korea’s response, sharply distracted from a week-long mourning period in South Korea for the 156 people, 101 women and 55 men – mostly children in in their twenties, also some teenagers and a middle schooler – who died in the Halloween crash in Seoul’s booming Itaewon neighborhood, the GI playground before the US and UN Command moved to Camp Humphreys, 40 miles south of Seoul , four years ago. A South Korean Air Force F-15K fires an air-to-surface missile north of its maritime border with North Korea, in this handout provided by South Korea’s Defense Ministry on Nov. 2, 2022.
South Korean Ministry of Defense/Yonhap via Reuters
Yun had not immediately expressed his condolences and hit out at the police for not expecting the 100,000-strong crowd and failing to move faster to save the victims than issuing statements and calling “emergency” meetings to see what to do. with the North Koreans. But will US and South Korean belligerence really do much to bring Kim Jong Un back to negotiations, much less give up his precious nukes? “More than 240 aircraft, many of them F-35s, will fly 1,300-1,400 sorties,” said Evans Revere, a retired senior US diplomat with years of experience in Korea. “I don’t think it will escape Pyongyang’s attention.” Yes, he told the Daily Beast, “this is similar (though MUCH bigger) to things we’ve done in the past.” However, he said, “by increasing the scope and frequency of our exercises, we are putting a significant burden on the North Korean regime, which will have to respond, use a lot of precious fuel, fly (and destroy) planes, expend missiles, and the etc.” “Every time we move, they have to move and they can’t afford it,” Revere said. “If we can maintain this, it will significantly increase the cost to NK of its current course. And if we can add new overt and covert economic measures after the nuclear test, it could cause a lot of pain in their system. “
