Comment Americans have cast more ballots ahead of Election Day than in early voting before the last midterm election, continuing a trend of increasingly relying on early voting despite strong objections from some Republicans. As of Saturday, voters had cast more than 39 million ballots, surpassing the number of early ballots cast in 2018, according to data kept by the US Elections Project. This year’s total will rise because election officials are still accepting mail-in ballots and some states allow in-person early voting on the weekend. Former President Donald Trump and his allies have attacked early voting, especially vote-by-mail programs, prompting some Republicans to abandon a practice they have embraced in some states for decades. A countervailing force appears to have offset this opposition — more opportunities for early voting. Fact Check: Trump’s Clash of Mail-in Voting Lies “We’re on an upward trajectory of early voting from election to election, and that’s because states are offering early voting more often or more extensively,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who oversees the election program. Early voting has long been on the rise. In 2014, about 31 percent of ballots were cast by mail or at early voting locations, McDonald said. In 2018, it rose to about 40 percent. He expects early voting to take a larger share this year. The best comparison for this year is other midterm elections such as 2014 and 2018. Early voting is higher in presidential years, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of the total vote, McDonald said. The role of early voting was particularly evident in 2020, when fears about the coronavirus caused voters to turn to postal ballots in record numbers. That year, Americans cast 101.5 million early votes, more than twice as many as in the 2016 presidential election. Many factors influence changes in voting behavior. After their experience in 2020, more voters know how to vote early and may follow the practice. Others may be more willing to go to the polls on Election Day now that vaccines are widely available. And arguments against early voting by Trump and his allies could sway how some voters choose to cast their ballots. Meanwhile, the rules for early voting in some places are changing. Unlike in 2018, California, Nevada, Vermont, and DC conduct these elections entirely by mail, and Michigan and Pennsylvania now offer no-excuse voting by mail. Other states have tightened their rules. The Wisconsin Supreme Court this summer banned the polls in that state, and the Delaware Supreme Court last month upheld a lower court ruling that blocked absentee voting there. This year, some Republicans have urged voters to hang on to their mail-in ballots until the last possible moment, making it difficult to calculate how many early ballots will ultimately be cast. in — either because they do not vote or decide to vote at the polls. Breaking down Senate, House races, governors who could be ousted midterm For this cycle, nearly 20 million votes have been cast in 19 states that have voter registration based on party identification, providing information on who is voting early. In those states, 43 percent of early votes so far have come from voters registered as Democrats, 34 percent from Republicans and 23 percent from those who are unaffiliated or affiliated with a third party. The 19 states include Democratic-dominated states like California, heavily Republican states like Oklahoma, and battleground states like Pennsylvania. Early voting participation varies by state. In North Carolina, just under 2 million early votes were cast, according to the number cast in 2018. In Georgia this fall, early in-person voting started well above 2018 levels before more closely matching the last midterm. A total of 2.5 million early votes were cast in person and by mail in Georgia as of Saturday, up from 2.1 million in 2018. Texans cast 5.5 million early ballots, up from 4.9 million in 2018.
