Everton v Leicester, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Saturday 5 November 17:00 Start 17:30
Now Leicester have fixed their defensive issues, the Foxes can make a sustained charge towards the top half of the Premier League based on their attacking quality. Greater safety – just three goals conceded in their last six games – allows the likes of James Maddison and Harvey Barnes to win football matches for their team. Yes, Leicester remain in the relegation zone, but they are just five points clear of Liverpool in ninth, having taken 10 points from those last six games. Image: Wout Faes made a big impact for Leicester Everton have improved since last season, but there is still an air of overachievement in terms of their numbers when it comes to their defence. Everton have the fourth-highest expected goals this season (21.2) but have the fourth-best actual defensive record (12 conceded). This is an unsustainable metric. I’m not sure you can allow the quality of Leicester’s attacking line to create such high chances without being punished. So it’s time to place a key bet at a price that remains fat, with Barnes to score in a Leicester win at 7/1 with Sky Bet. And the top goalscorer price of 10/1 should also be absolutely respected. No Leicester player has had more touches in the opposition area (46) than Barnes this season. The gameplan is clear from Brendan Rodgers to get his winger into dangerous positions in the box, and it is paying off with Barnes scoring three in his last six games, aided by great chemistry with Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Harvey Barnes to score in Leicester win (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Chelsea vs Arsenal, Sunday 12pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Chelsea remain a team that overperforms by the numbers under Graham Potter, especially in attack. In the six Premier League games he has overseen, Chelsea have averaged an expected number of non-penalty goals of 1.06 per 90 – that’s a disappointing performance for a team hailed as a top-four team and have had a soft run of games against such as Wolves, Aston Villa and Brentford. By comparison, Arsenal are working with 1.82 expected non-penalty goals per 90 this season. That Chelsea average dropped to 0.28 when they faced Manchester United – a genuine top-six side – where Jorginho’s penalty came from nil during a very stale attacking performance. There have been moments of impressive play under Potter, who I’m sure will get it right once he’s worked out all the parts of this Chelsea machine. However, without the natural width and creativity of Reece James and the industry of N’Golo Kante, Chelsea look a little lost in this transition period. But there are concerns about Arsenal’s attack when playing away from home as well. There has been a huge downward trajectory in their attacking numbers over their last four road trips in all competitions. They have scored just three goals and struggled for intensity against Southampton and Leeds without the added bonus of a packed home crowd. The ultimate bet has this tie at 13/8 available with Sky Bet on both teams. I’d steer clear of this angle, although for prediction purposes I’d go closely with Arsenal. My interest is under 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet in a game where defenses dominate everything.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 2.5 Goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Aston Villa – Manchester United, Sunday 14:00
This is how Unai Emery would like to be in his first game. His Aston Villa side are underdogs and will have a raucous house after he roars at them, excited by the exciting appointment. A quick look at the goal totals returning to his first competitive game in charge of a new club (Villarreal, Arsenal, PSG, Sevilla, Spartak Moscow, Valencia, Almeria and Lorca CF) shows that he can work quickly to build a team with good defensive structure. In those eight games, the average was just 1.87 total goals. I fully expect this meeting to follow that low goal average. Manchester United is a side that goes sideways, but it’s a style that relies on stability and controlling games at important moments. The offensive chemistry is still not at the levels Erik ten Hag was asking for and lends itself to some low-scoring games. All four of their last Premier League games have gone under the 2.5 goal line and with perhaps some heavy feet after their clash with Real Sociedad on Thursday, a goal could be enough to do that.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Under 2.5 Goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Southampton v Newcastle Sunday 14:00 Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Sunday 6 November 13:00 Start 14:00
Regular readers of this column (hi mum) will know the pain that sweeps through my body every time James Ward-Prowse makes the England team is mentioned. His omission from the Euro 2020 squad marked a sickening end to two years in which he was backed at inflated prices – some as high as 16/1 – to make the final squad. There may be some payback if Callum Wilson can keep scoring. He was part of my ante-post portfolio at the start of the season at prices ranging from 11/1 to 6/1 to make the World Cup squad. All seemed lost when his body failed him after a brilliant start, but his starring role in this superbly strong Newcastle side after regaining fitness has catapulted him back into England contention. It is now 11/10. Don’t break my heart again, Gareth. Wilson is an aggressive striker when he’s in the mood, and with his motivation high, he rates as the most likely top goalscorer at St Mary’s, even if his price of 7/2 with Sky Bet is about right. In their last 10 Premier League games, just three Premier League goals have been scored by attacking Southampton players, so it makes the reliability of Wilson’s finish, despite the slim price, stand out when assessing this market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
West Ham v Crystal Palace, Sunday 14:00
Patrick Vieira is a manager who for some reason struggles to inspire his teams away from home. Since taking over last season, Palace have been posting relegation performance metrics in terms of their attacking numbers and overall record. They have won just four of their 24 away games – one of which was at Manchester City, incredibly. In those matches their overall expected goal yield of 23.15 is the lowest total posted by any Premier League team that was not promoted or relegated in that period. Image: David Moyes can lead West Ham to victory against Palace Vieira had similar problems scoring on the road at Nice, where his side averaged just 0.9 goals per 90 minutes in his 37 matches in charge of the French side away from home. Perhaps his controlled, possession-based style is difficult to apply when opposition teams play with more confidence at home. Having watched them play at Leicester and Everton, I’m completely against Palace this weekend against an improved West Ham side who have won nine of their last 13 games in all competitions, including their last three at home in Premier League. 10/11 with Sky Bet on a Hammers win should land.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Tottenham v Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Sunday 6 November 16:00 Start 16:30
When assessing the quality of attacking players missing from both teams, added to the relentless fixture list since October 1, it is easy to predict that this clash is not its best version. Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota are out for Liverpool, while Heung-Min Son, Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski are huge absentees for Spurs as their ability to play quickly in transition is now severely affected. Spurs rely on second-half rallies and goals from set-pieces to get out of some difficult situations, but Liverpool are a very difficult team to score from such scenarios – they and West Ham are the only two teams yet to concede a corner this season. I can see Spurs struggling to create many openings from open play, especially without the speed and directness of Son who scored in both games against Liverpool last season. However, Liverpool don’t exactly fill me with confidence in the away goals department either against a potential low Tottenham block. Jurgen Klopp spoke after the Napoli win that “we have to fight and then the real football we can play can come back” which screams to me that he will play more safety than usual to keep Alisson’s goal protected. The markets are predicting a bit of a goal frenzy, with the game more likely to go over 2.5 goals than under. Disagree. Back to a low-scoring affair.
