Gavriil Grigorov | Afp | Getty Images Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ultimatum to the West sharply raises the risk of nuclear conflict, analysts and activists have warned, with world leaders denouncing what they describe as “reckless” and “irresponsible” threats. Speaking in a rare televised address on Wednesday, Putin called for additional forces for the war in Ukraine and warned that if Russia’s territorial integrity was threatened, the Kremlin “will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It’s not a bluff.” It was widely interpreted as a threat that Putin is ready to use nuclear weapons to escalate the war after a series of Ukrainian successes. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday reiterated the Kremlin’s nuclear stance, saying any weapons in Russia’s arsenal could be used to defend its territory – including strategic nuclear weapons. It comes as pro-Moscow regional leaders in parts of southern and eastern Ukraine have announced referendums on joining Russia. Votes are expected to be held in the Russian-controlled regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, which reportedly make up about 15 percent of Ukrainian territory. The outcome of the referendums is widely believed to have been predetermined by the Kremlin, prompting the US and its allies to denounce them as “fake”. Political analysts say the Kremlin may then view Ukrainian military action against those four regions as an attack on Russia itself. “Citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our homeland, our independence and freedom will be ensured, I emphasize again, by all the means at our disposal,” Putin said. Putin’s threats drastically increase the risk of escalation into a nuclear conflict. This is incredibly dangerous and irresponsible. Beatrice Fihn Executive Director of ICAN “These statements go beyond Russian nuclear doctrine, which only suggests Russia’s first use in a conventional war when the very existence of the state is threatened,” said Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher on weapons of mass destruction and other strategic weapons programs at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. “From the person who has the sole authority to make decisions about Russian nuclear weapons, this should be taken seriously,” Baklitsky said, noting that Putin’s reference to “territorial integrity” was difficult to determine given that the Kremlin plans to absorb four regions of Ukraine. “None of this means that Russia will resort to nuclear use. That would be a truly world-changing decision,” Baklitsky said. “And it is not clear whether such a move would lead to any desired results [President] Putin… But extending the conditions for possible use in the midst of ongoing war is a huge gamble,” he added. “One without it all of us, including Russia, would be safer.”
“Eroding the Taboo”
US President Joe Biden condemned Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons and urged allied UN leaders to reject Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Speaking at United Nations headquarters in New York on Wednesday, Biden accused the Kremlin of making “reckless” and “irresponsible” threats and said “a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.” His comments echo those of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who told Reuters on Wednesday that the 30-nation Western defense alliance would remain calm and “not engage in this kind of reckless and dangerous nuclear rhetoric with President Putin ». Beatrice Fihn, Nobel laureate and executive director of the International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons, urged political leaders to renew efforts to get rid of all nuclear weapons by signing and ratifying the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images Putin has referred to Russia’s nuclear weapons at various points during the conflict with Ukraine. However, there are doubts among Western leaders whether Moscow will resort to developing weapons of mass destruction. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told German media on Wednesday that he did not believe the world would allow Putin to use nuclear weapons. Beatrice Fihn, a Nobel laureate and executive director of the International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons, told CNBC that Putin’s “incredibly dangerous and irresponsible” threats drastically increase the risk of escalating into a nuclear conflict. “Threats to use nuclear weapons lower the threshold for their use,” Fihn said by email. “The ensuing debate by politicians and commentators about the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons and possible nuclear responses without also discussing the devastating humanitarian impact of using even so-called ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons erodes the taboo against their use ». Finn called on the international community to “unequivocally condemn any and all nuclear threats” and urged political leaders to renew efforts to get rid of all nuclear weapons by signing and ratifying the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
“There’s no going back”
Max Hess, a fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, described Putin’s nuclear threats as “a very important announcement.” “Now, the real threat from Putin’s speech was that he is prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory, including territory that they plan to annex,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe.” “This includes not only the region of Donetsk and Luhansk, the traditional Donbass, but also all of Zaporizhia and all of Kherson — regions of Ukraine that remain largely contested and where the Russians do not fully control them.” “What this then means for those territories still under Ukrainian control in relation to Putin’s threats remains unknown,” Hess added. If Putin used a so-called tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, there would be “no going back” and “no negotiation,” according to Timothy Ash, emerging markets analyst at BlueBay Asset Management. In such a scenario, Putin “is done with the West forever and probably then even the Chinese, India, South Africa, the BRICS and the rest of the non-aligned world turn against him,” Ash said. The acronym BRICS refers to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. A weapon of mass destruction, or WMD, “is a deterrent,” Ash said. “Once used, its power is essentially stripped away.”
