And, today, the Kremlin is sending decidedly mixed signals. On the one hand we hear statements about the dogmatic commitment of the Russian Federation to the maxim that “a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.” On the other hand, we learn that Russian generals have been discussing the possibility of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in the context of a war in Ukraine that is increasingly portrayed as an existential struggle with the West. So, even with official statements downplaying the prospect, there can be no confidence that Putin will not escalate into the nuclear realm—especially if he felt it was the only way to save his regime. Because with each passing day, the Russian president and his inner circle become more and more unknown, infected by an intense paranoia. It is this atmosphere of suspicion that underpins the rumors swirling around Moscow that only three people had advance warning of the plan to attack Ukraine. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, is said to have learned of the invasion while in his pajamas just two hours earlier. And the paranoia will only grow as the war continues to deviate from the plan. Cut off from the world and driven by a messianic confusion of his nation and himself, Putin will do anything to stay in power. How should the West react to this essentially unknown situation? It is an enviable task for policymakers, but the most important thing is to reject the binary that insists on either unenforceable appeasement deals or impermissibly aggressive threats to dismantle Russia. Instead, we should take Russia seriously as an adversary, following the example of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces (General Zaluzhnyi has studied the doctrine, tactics and personnel of the Russian military in minute detail). In practical terms, it means setting out a unified Western doctrine for dealing with Russia – probably some variation on containment, with clear red lines and evidence that we will enforce them, rather than cheap rhetoric and empty threats. That said, Western support for Ukraine should not be dampened by shape-shifting claims that “Russia is not being humiliated.” It is not in the gift of the West or Ukraine to humiliate Russia. Putin has done it himself. If Russia stopped fighting, the war would end and so would its humiliation. There are, however, natural limits to Western influence, and we should recognize this by shifting the focus from defeating Putin to helping Ukraine win. Resources must be aligned towards the most effective outcome, which is to protect the future of Ukrainian society. In Russia, the pressures of war will wear on over time and change will come, almost certainly unexpectedly, possibly for the worse, but hopefully for the better. Until then, we can expect more nukes and rat stories just around the corner.
