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Greece and Turkey are two of NATO’s oldest members, having joined in 1952, but their relationship and tensions between them predate the alliance, and joining has done little to soften their differences. In recent years, relations between Athens and Ankara have deteriorated to the point where some believe war may break out between them. The countries occupy strategically important territory in southeastern Europe and have two of NATO’s largest militaries, making the stakes of a potential conflict much higher.

Weapons of the Eastern Mediterranean

                            A tank in a military parade for Greece’s Independence Day on March 25, 2018. Kostas Pikoulas/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

Due to persistent tensions with Turkey, Greece is one of the few NATO members to keep defense spending above the alliance’s target of 2 percent of GDP. Greece’s defense spending in 2022 was the highest in the alliance as a percentage of GDP. Although much of Greece’s defense spending has traditionally gone to personnel costs, major equipment purchases under its current administration, which took office in July 2019, have also made it one of the alliance’s biggest spenders on hardware. (NATO also calls for 20% of members’ defense spending to go towards equipment purchases and upgrades.) Greece places special emphasis on its aviation and naval fleet in particular. A Greek F-16 Viper with the Zeus Solo Display Team at an air show near Athens in September 2016. George Panagakis/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images As of 2020, it has purchased 24 French-made Rafale jets, 4.5-generation multi-role fighters considered highly capable and technologically superior to any Turkish aircraft. Athens is also upgrading 84 of its F-16s to the latest Viper configuration and has applied to join the F-35 program. Greece plans to buy seven MH-60R anti-submarine helicopters and has installed a version of Israel’s Iron Dome over the eastern Aegean islands. The system is tailored to deal with Turkey’s large drone fleet. On the naval front, Greece has purchased three FDI HN frigates from France with an option for a fourth. It is also in the final stages of selecting four more corvettes for its already sizeable navy. Greece maintains the largest tank force among European NATO members — though some are older models — and has one of the largest artillery forces on the continent. Turkish soldiers and a tank near the northern Syrian village of Esme in February 2015. REUTERS Turkey, on the other hand, has the second largest military and the second largest tank and artillery force in NATO, after the US. Turkey’s air force is comparable to Greece’s, but lags behind because of Ankara’s expulsion from the F-35 program, the US curtailment of Turkey’s request for an F-16 upgrade, and the dismissal of hundreds of Turkish pilots after the 2016 coup attempt. However, Turkey’s drone industry and the aircraft it produces are among NATO’s best. Turkish-made TB-2 Bayraktar drones have received considerable attention for their role in the war in Ukraine. Turkey also has one of the largest navies in NATO, with a significant number of warships and a large amphibious fleet. Ankara plans to boost its fleet with at least four to seven anti-aircraft frigates to replace older ships. Turkish submarines in a military parade for the 87th anniversary of Victory Day in Istanbul in August 2009. BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images The Turkish navy is also awaiting the delivery of six German-made Type 214 submarines, which could tip the naval balance in the Aegean, as Greece has four Type 214 submarines. Turkey’s defense spending is significantly less than Greece’s, on a percentage basis, but Turkey benefits from a larger economy and plans annual increases in defense spending until 2024. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently announced an additional $26 billion in defense spending for in 2023. This concentration of firepower would make any conflict more deadly, and a local crisis could quickly escalate. The chief of the Greek army’s general staff, General Konstantinos Floros, said in 2020 that “no crisis” would be “geographically isolated”, a reversal of Greece’s previous policy.

Lots of issues, little sympathy

                            A group of migrants wait between the Turkish and Greek borders in February 2020. Huseyin Aldemir/Reuters

Greece and Turkey have come very close to war in the recent past. They clashed during Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus in 1974, and a collision was narrowly avoided during the Imian Crisis in 1996. In 2020, Greek and Turkish frigates collided during a standoff in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both countries have lost aircraft and pilots in encounters over the eastern Aegean, and each side regularly accuses the other of flying over their territory in the region. Their disagreements include a divided Cyprus and the arming of migrants, but much of their tension centers on the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean islands. Greece, citing the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, argues that its hundreds of islands in the Aegean give it rights to territorial waters and an exclusive economic zone. Turkey is not a signatory to UNCLOS and maintains that the islands do not have the same territorial rights as the mainland. Turkish and Greek coastguard vessels patrol around the Imia/Kardak islets in the Aegean Sea on the 21st anniversary of the 1996 crisis in 2017. Ali Balli/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Turkey’s parliament has approved a declaration of war if Greece expands its territorial waters in the Aegean from its current 6 nautical miles to the 12 miles allowed by UNCLOS. Turkey is also demanding that Greece demilitarize its islands in the eastern Aegean, arguing that Athens has violated treaty limits on military equipment that can be deployed on them. Athens says the material is for defense purposes. The dispute over the island has escalated in recent months. Erdogan said in September that Greece was “occupying” the islands and that “we will do whatever it takes” when the time comes. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said days later that war would never happen, but that if Ankara did attack “it will receive an absolutely devastating response.” The rhetoric is widely seen in Turkey as politically motivated: Erdogan and Mitsotakis both face elections next summer. Photo taken by Turkish military drones…