Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated his unprovoked war against Ukraine this week, days after some of his supposed partners publicly expressed doubts about it — and the events may well be related. Since invading Ukraine in February, Russia has been shunned by most of the world and faced withering sanctions from the West. But as Russia became isolated, some nations either sided with Putin or avoided condemning him directly. Both China and India have been strong partners of Russia throughout the war, refusing to impose sanctions and continuing to buy the country’s energy products. However, the leaders of both countries recently took the rare step of speaking out against the war. During a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan on September 15, Putin acknowledged that Xi had “questions and concerns” about the war. The next day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticized the war during a face-to-face meeting with Putin. “I know that today is not a time of war and I spoke to you on the phone about that,” Modi told Putin, Reuters reported. Putin responded: “I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine and I know your concerns. We want this all to end as soon as possible.” Less than a week later, on Wednesday, Putin said he was calling up 300,000 reservists to join the fight, something he had avoided doing for fear of a backlash from the Russian people. The announcement, in which he also threatened to use nuclear weapons, came after major gains by the Ukrainian military in recent weeks. Experts told Insider that it will be weeks or months before the mobilized troops are trained, equipped and deployed. They also said that Putin’s decision to take this step now showed how badly the war was going for Russia and how desperate the Russian leader was to turn the tide. “That Putin would do this shows how badly he feels the need right now to change the momentum, which has been all in Ukraine’s favor,” said Daniel Treisman, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, whose work focuses on Russian politics and economics, he told Insider. In addition to fear of another possible counterattack from Ukraine, Putin was likely driven by Xi and Modi’s concerns — and his fear of losing key partners — according to Robert English, a professor at the University of Southern California who studies the Russia, the Soviet Union. and Eastern Europe. “The elements of criticism of allies like China or neutral states like India clearly put more pressure on him,” English told Insider. He added that the leaders of those nations appear to have told Putin that they do not approve of the situation in Ukraine because it damages their reputation on the world stage and costs them financially and politically. English said what he suspects Putin heard was: “Find some way to settle quickly, to end this war, because we’re not going to stand by your side for another six months of this brutality.” “He heard a message like that, so he’s trying to raise the reins,” English said. “He’s trying to change the military balance as best he can.” If Putin has mobilized troops in an attempt to end the war as quickly as possible, as he assured Modi he would seek to do, it is far from clear that he will be successful. “It’s an unsatisfactory and inadequate response to motivation, manpower and material on the Ukrainian side,” English said, explaining that military aid and intelligence from the West has given Ukraine an advantage on the battlefield. “It’s not going to do the job.”
