Evgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin is an ex-convict turned catering magnate, the so-called “Putin chef” who runs the Wagner Group, a private military contractor that carries out the interests of the Russian state abroad under a thin layer of denial of the activities, of losses and his expenses. . But his growing influence in Ukraine and growing inroads into the political sphere have seen military analysts note that he could pose a challenge to Mr Putin as factional leaders seek to “exploit” rifts in the Russian state. Dale Pankhurst, a doctoral candidate at Queen’s University in Belfast whose research focuses on the role of pro-government militias, says that Mr. Putin’s mistakes on the battlefield and Wagner’s relative successes have tipped the balance of power in Mr. Prigozhin. “This manifested itself in Prigozhin challenging Putin directly about Russia’s conduct in the war. This would have been unthinkable a few months ago,” he told i. “This inevitably increases the power and position of the Wagner Group at the expense of Putin.” Prigozhin stunned Kremlin watchers in September by claiming to be the founder of the Russian paramilitary group in its early days in eastern Ukraine in 2014, after previously denying it. “I cleaned the old guns myself, looked at the bulletproof vests,” he wrote on social media. “From that moment … a group of patriots was born.” It came shortly after a video showed him recruiting convicts to reinforce Russian forces, promising freedom after six months of service. Mr Pankhurst said the move underlined the fact that he “no longer feels threatened or reluctant to admit his role at Wagner”. He has since made moves to further strengthen his influence.
More than the world
“If Putin continues to falter in the execution of his strategic ambitions with Ukraine and the balance of power continues to shift towards Wagner at the expense of the Kremlin, Prigozhin may be a future leader of a coup against the Putin regime,” Mr Pankhurst said. he said. “This internal relationship between Wagner and Putin has critical strategic and tactical implications for Ukraine and its Western allies.” Dr Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at King’s College London, said many of Mr Prigozhin’s proposals had been adopted by the Kremlin in an attempt to appease hardliners, but in recent weeks they had become “much tougher” and increasingly focused. in the upper echelons of the Russian leadership, showing how his political ambitions had grown. “Given the increasing influence of the Wagner Group in the force structure in Ukraine and its achievements on the battlefield, Prigozhin feels he has enough power to act as a ‘guerrilla’ in Russia’s political elite,” he said. “It could, indeed, be a danger to Putin’s regime, however, that will depend on what Prigozhin tries to impose without formal political power and how much patience the Kremlin elite has. “Either, he could incorporate Prigozhin, to keep the ‘enemy’ close, or try to remove him from the system. The latter would be a poor choice at this stage given the reliance on Wagner. This is something Prigozhin is well aware of, hence his increased appetite for risks,” he added.
The Wagner Center
This week, that increased appetite will be on display as Mr Prigozhin is set to open a Wagner Center in his native St Petersburg on Friday that will feature free accommodation for “inventors, designers, IT specialists, experimental production and start-up spaces. According to military analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War. It is designed to create a “comfortable environment for generating new ideas in order to increase Russia’s defense capability, including intelligence,” Mr Prigozhin was quoted as saying by ISW. The move was made without the approval of the local government and Mr Prigozhin has challenged local officials who have a problem with it to take it to court. He also hinted that other sectors could follow and on Monday criticized Russian oligarchs and elites for “living in a state of endless comfort” that prevents a full-scale mobilization from taking place. “Until [elites’] children go to war, the full mobilization of the country will not happen,” he said in an interview with Russian media. He also dismissed speculation of a political bent, saying: “I’m not after popularity. My duty is to fulfill my duty to the Motherland and today I do not intend to create parties, let alone go into politics.” But Mr. Prigozhin’s efforts to create the Wagner Center and allegations against political elites such as St. Petersburg’s governor, Alexander Beglov, are seen by military analysts as an attempt to consolidate power and smooth his credentials. Dr Miron said his fingerprints can also be seen in recent Russian decisions, such as appointing General Surovykin as the sole commander in Ukraine, who has overseen recent attacks on civilian infrastructure, and demanding that Russia ban YouTube, showing his influence in Russia. Kremlin. He described the development of the St. Petersburg center as part of a play to formalize Wagner’s extralegal status and integrate it into the political framework – a tactic also adopted by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. “The system shows obvious cracks since the beginning of the ‘special military operation.’ And now these cracks are so obvious that Prigozhin sees a perfect opportunity to step in and take advantage of the situation,” he said. “A year ago, it would have been unthinkable for someone to make such bold statements and not ‘disappear.’ It would be even less likely for Putin to back down and act on those demands.”
