Putin has called up 300,000 Russian reservists for his unjust and unprovoked war in Ukraine. He also indirectly rattled his nuclear quiver.
His action follows a Ukrainian counteroffensive that pushed Russian forces out of Kharkiv and liberated more than 3,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. In August, the Department of Health’s Chief Policy Officer, Colin Kahl, said the Russians had lost between 50,000 and 70,000 soldiers in the war against Ukraine.
Putin’s mobilization “would be primarily reservists or retired members of the Russian military,” Ryder said.
These are not like the reserve formations in the United States. US military reserve components are trained and ready to move in hours, days or weeks, depending on the need.
In the Russian model, these are people who have completed their service commitment and are called to return. “Our assessment is that it will take time for Russia to train, prepare and equip these forces,” Ryder said.
Russian actions in the war against Ukraine indicate serious command and control problems and a logistical breakdown since the invasion began on February 24. These problems have not been resolved and contributed to the failure of Russian operations to capture the Ukrainian capital of Kiev in March and Russia’s inability to make much progress in the Donbass region in April.
The mobilization “may address a manpower issue for Russia,” Ryder said. “What’s not clear is whether or not it could significantly address the command and control, logistics, sustainment and, most importantly, morale issues that we’ve seen Russian forces in Ukraine experience.”
If Russia cannot command, maintain and equip the approximately 100,000 troops it has in Ukraine, adding 300,000 more troops to the mix is not going to improve the situation. “If you’re already facing significant challenges and you haven’t addressed some of these systemic strategic issues that make any large military force capable, there’s nothing to suggest that it’s going to get any easier by adding more variables to the equation,” Ryder said.
The United States and its partners are going to continue a very open and rigorous dialogue with their Ukrainian counterparts to understand the country’s needs. “I don’t see these talks being affected by the situation [with mobilization]said the general. “I think it’s important here to give a little context. If we go back in time, Russia invaded Ukraine and attempted to annex the whole of Ukraine.
“They failed in this strategic objective and thus reduced the scope of their operational objectives,” he continued. “Even those are not going well because of Ukraine’s counterattack and the logistics and sustainment issues I’ve highlighted.”
Putin making the announcement about mobilizing, planning fake referendums in occupied Donbas or threatening to attack territories “does not change the operational facts on the ground, which is that Ukrainians will continue to fight for their country,” said Ryder. he said. “The Russian military faces some significant challenges on the ground, and the international community will stand behind Ukraine as they struggle to defend their country from an invasion.”
