In Iowa, Utah and Washington, Senate races are still likely to favor incumbents, who hold significant partisan advantages. But the polls in those places were tighter than expected as challengers launched surprisingly strong campaigns. In each of these races, the states’ political leanings and the strengths of the incumbents make it an uphill battle for those seeking to unseat them. However, the closeness of recent research has been surprising, leaving the door open for potential reversals. “Every cycle, especially in the Senate, there’s a who-da-thunk-it race. I think any of those races could be options for that race he’s going to put his mind to,” says J. Miles Coleman, an election expert at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.

Iowa

In Iowa, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) faces one of the most competitive re-election races of his career against retired Navy Adm. Mike Franken (D). Grassley, 89, would become one of the oldest lawmakers to ever serve in Congress if he wins. Franken argued that it would provide a more independent — and fresh — alternative.
A Senate race seeking his eighth term, Grassley has easily won most of his previous races, though his margins could be much narrower this time around. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Grassley is ahead of Franken by about seven percentage points. In 2016, he beat his Democratic opponent by more than 20. “It tells me that Franken is running a capable campaign and has a chance to beat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Des Moines Register in October after research she participated in for the publication showed the two candidates three percentage points among likely voters. Grassley’s candidacy has been weakened in 2022 by a few factors, including higher disapproval ratings because of his alignment with Trump and the scrutiny of his age, which 60% of voters saw as a concern in the Des Moines Register poll. “I think there are some Iowans who think he’s too old for the job and aren’t sure he’s going to be effective at doing the job for the next six years,” says Iowa State political scientist Dave Peterson. Grassley has defended himself by pointing to his busy work schedule, as well as his seniority in the Senate, which Republicans argue gives the state more influence. Franken, meanwhile, argued that politics has become too contentious, citing Grassley’s partisanship and describing himself as an independent who puts “country before party.” He also emphasized his support for abortion rights and his defense of programs like Social Security. Franken faced scrutiny over allegations he kissed a former employee without consent last March, which he has denied. National Democrats have shied away from investing in this race after putting significant resources into the 2020 Senate and multiple House races, only to lose. As such, Franken’s bid remains large, although he has done more than Democrats initially expected.

Jute

Sen. Mike Lee (R) is staring down a strong challenge from a candidate he once voted for himself. Lee opposed Trump in the 2016 election, supporting independent candidate and former CIA officer Evan McMullin. Six years later, McMullin, a former Republican, is now running for Lee’s seat as an independent, positioning himself as the choice against Trump once again. “It’s a Republican state, but it’s not necessarily a pro-Trump state,” Coleman says of Utah. Lee eventually aligned himself with Trump and accepted his support for the former president’s efforts to challenge the results of the 2020 election. While Lee did not vote to challenge the election results like some of his other Senate colleagues, the text messages with former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows revealing he had backed other legal plans to challenge the results. McMullin has seized on Lee’s actions as part of his campaign, arguing that this election serves as “ground zero for the defense of American democracy.” McMullin is aiming to garner support from moderate Republicans and Democrats — neither of whom are running their own candidate in the race. Senator Mitt Romney also chose not to endorse in the election, a move that could potentially help McMullin win over some of his supporters. Lee has argued that McMullin’s positions are vague and that he is a Democrat masquerading as an independent. Lee also maintains a strong lead in the state, where a majority of voters still supported Trump in 2020, and where the FiveThirtyEight polling average has him leading by about ten points. However, he has acknowledged the success of McMullin’s run, noting recently that “it’s close”.

Washington

Sen. Patty Murray (D) is another D.C. veteran whose race has garnered surprising attention despite playing in a deep blue state. Murray, a five-term incumbent, is running against Tiffany Smiley (R), a veterans affairs advocate and powerful fundraiser who claims Murray is out of touch with her constituents the way she was when she first ran. . Smiley has focused on both inflation and the rise in crime during the pandemic, arguing that Democrats are responsible for both. “If there’s an anti-establishment, anti-establishment situation, that could fuel it for Smiley,” says Jessica Taylor, Senate elections expert at the Cook Political Report. Murray, for her part, has highlighted her support for the Inflation Reduction Act, which would lower prescription drug costs, and her defense of abortion rights, on which Smiley has taken an unclear position . Smiley has said she would not support a national ban or a national vote codifying Roe into law. While Murray had a strong showing against Smiley in the state’s top-two primary earlier this year, winning 52 percent to her opponent’s 34 percent, the polls have been closer in recent weeks, prompting Democrats to pump more money into the race. race. The FiveThirtyEight polling average has Murray up by just six points, a sign that Smiley’s campaign has gained momentum and could benefit from a national boost in Republican energy. Unlike the other two incumbents, Murray’s party is losing rather than gaining momentum with voters as Election Day nears, making Republicans more bullish on Smiley as Election Day nears. Political pundits, however, note that Smiley will still have significant ground to cover given the state’s significant Democratic tilt, and are skeptical that she will be able to fully cover it. Because of that, Murray remains the favorite, though she has warned Democrats not to get complacent. “We are a Democratic State if the people vote,” he said at a recent event, according to a New York Times report.