Subtropical Storm Nicole, currently spinning just over 400 miles from the Bahamas, is forecast to intensify and hit Florida at or near hurricane strength by midweek. Why it matters: The storm’s intensity can be deceptive, as its large size is likely to make it a high-impact event with devastating coastal flooding, dangerous winds and heavy rainfall over a wide area. Driving News: The center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was located about 415 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas as of 1 a.m. ET Tuesday. It was moving northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters were surveying Nicole’s large wind field early Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said.
Threat Level: Subtropical storms are hybrid systems with tropical and non-tropical storm characteristics. Importantly, they tend to have a large wind field, which will play into the effects of the storm in Florida.
The storm is forecast to slowly intensify into a tropical storm over the next two days. Ultimately, Nicole is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane shortly before it makes landfall on Florida’s east coast, somewhere near West Palm Beach, between Wednesday and Thursday.
Yes, but: Land location is less important in this storm’s case, as its winds will reach the coast of Georgia, bringing high surf, beach erosion, storm flooding, damaging winds and heavy rain.
If Nicole makes landfall as a hurricane, it will be the last such storm to hit Florida, according to Michael Lowry, a hurricane and storm expert at WPLG-TV in Miami.
Magnification: Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday declared a state of emergency in 34 counties “out of an abundance of caution” to allow residents to prepare necessary resources in case the subtropical storm strengthens.
“While at this time this storm does not appear to become much stronger, I urge all Floridians to be prepared and listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in a statement.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for Florida’s east coast from the Volusia County border with Brevard County to Hallandale Beach and Lake Okeechobee.
A storm surge watch is in effect from the east coast of Georgia south to Hallandale Beach, Florida.
The NHC said hurricane conditions are possible in southeast to east-central Florida beginning Wednesday, while tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over a larger area of Florida and Georgia. “A dangerous storm surge is possible across parts of the northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida, and parts of coastal Georgia,” the NHC said in a forecast discussion. “The storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.”
Between the lines: NHC forecasters caution against focusing on Nicole’s track, saying the storm is “expected to be a large storm with hazards extending north of the center and out of the cone affecting much of the Florida peninsula and parts of of the southeastern United States
Much of Florida, particularly areas along the east coast, will be threatened with urban and river flooding from the storm as well as it moves slowly across the state and then turns north toward the southeast coast.
Go deeper: Hurricane Ian may have been Florida’s costliest storm Editor’s note: This story has been updated with a statement from Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis and details on the storm’s movement.
