With less than a week to go before the midterm elections, almost everything is breaking in favor of the Republicans. The big picture: Just a few weeks ago, Republicans seemed on the ropes thanks to a series of polarizing, MAGA-aligned candidates with seemingly strong Democratic opponents and Democrats’ relentless focus on abortion.

Now, however, all those fortunes seem to have reversed.

News lead: The Cook Political Report yesterday moved its ratings for 10 more House races — in mono-blue New York, New Jersey, Oregon, California and Illinois — in the Republican direction.

If all of Cook’s “unlikely,” “likely,” and “solid” GOP races hold, the GOP would only need to win 6 of 35 “blowout” races to take the majority. Democrats should win 29 of the 35. FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast shows the upper house race remains a “dead heat,” but gave Republicans a 51/49 lead for the first time since July.

Between the lines: The quality of the candidates — perhaps the Democrats’ biggest advantage this cycle — may not be as decisive as it once seemed.

Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman swept the Democratic primary because of this appeal. But the ads bashing him on crime, along with the backlash at last week’s debate, have dampened Democrats’ optimism about winning the Senate race. Ohio Senate candidate Tim Ryan represented a working-class district in northeast Ohio in the House and focused his campaign on union members and appealing to everyone. His moderate campaign has won over some skeptics, but he still faces a tough challenge in a red state that Donald Trump carried by 8 points.

At the same time, extreme or unprepared Republican candidates may not be as much of a liability as they once seemed.

With the growing possibility of a red wave, it is possible that some flawed MAGA-aligned candidates could win despite their political struggles. Keep a close eye on Blake Masters in Arizona and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Mitch McConnell, stopped investing in those races because they weren’t sold on the caliber of those GOP candidates. However, polls show both races are competitive and still winnable for Republicans if there is a big red wave.