The president’s new national security strategy (NSS) portrays China as the most capable long-term adversary, but Russia as the most immediate disruptive threat, pointing to its nuclear posture over Ukraine. He warns that the threat may increase as Russian forces continue to suffer defeats on the battlefield. “Russia’s conventional military will have been weakened, which will likely increase Moscow’s reliance on nuclear weapons in its military planning,” the draft strategy says. It was scheduled for publication in the spring, but was postponed due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has threatened to use “all means” to defend Russian territory, which has included Crimea, which he annexed in 2014, and four Ukrainian regions he now claims. The NSS pledges that US support for the Ukrainian resistance will not be affected by such threats. “The United States will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its goals by using or threatening to use nuclear weapons,” the document says. In a preface, Biden draws a distinction between the types of threats posed by Moscow and Beijing. “Russia poses a direct threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order today, as demonstrated by its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine,” the president writes. He describes China, on the other hand, as “the only country with the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that goal.” The policy document portrays Beijing as “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge.” “The People’s Republic of China harbors the intention and, increasingly, the ability to reshape the international order in favor of one that tilts the global playing field in its favor, even as the United States remains committed to managing competition among countries us responsibly. ” says. China has about 350 nuclear warheads, according to an estimate by the Federation of American Scientists, compared with 5,977 in Russia’s stockpile, against the US stockpile of 5,428. However, the Pentagon believes that the Chinese force will grow to more than 1,000 warheads by 2030, making it the third major nuclear power. Under the last remaining major arms control agreement in force, the New Start treaty, the US and Russia adhere to a cap of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, referring to those warheads mounted on land-based or sea-based missiles or ready to be loaded onto bombers range. Darryl Kimball, the head of the Arms Control Association, expressed concern over whether the new language in the strategy paper could herald a review of the size of the US arsenal. “If we have to worry about two near nuclear rivals by 2030, what does that mean for the number of targets in Russia and China that the president thinks we have to risk to prevent those nuclear threats? And how does that affect the total number of strategic nuclear weapons that the United States and the president believe they should deploy?” Kimball asked. “They’re basically looking at issues and questions that could lead to a bigger calculation of the number,” he said, adding: “It’s not hard science. Could it be more? could be less. I would argue that even if China has twice the number of nuclear weapons, we can and should reduce the total number of strategic nuclear weapons because what we have is in excess of any reasonable calculation of what it would take to deter a nuclear attack.”
