For the first time in 4 1/2 years, after a pandemic pause, WTO government ministers will gather for four days from Sunday to address issues such as marine overfishing, COVID-19 vaccines for developing world and food security at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine has hampered the export of millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain to developing countries. Faced with a major test of her diplomatic skills since taking office 15 months ago, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has expressed in recent days “cautious optimism” that progress could be made on at least one of the four issues The meeting is expected to be dominated by fisheries subsidies, agriculture, pandemic control and agency reform, said Fernando Puchol. Diplomats and trade teams are working “steadily – many, many hours” to show at least one “clear text” on a possible deal – which ministers can simply point out and not have to negotiate – on one of these issues. Puchol told reporters Friday. “It’s difficult to predict a result right now,” he said. The Geneva-based organization, which is just a quarter of a century old, brings together 164 countries to help ensure a smooth and fair international trade and to resolve trade disputes. Some outside experts expect little from the meeting, saying the key may just be to bring ministers to the table. “The multilateral trading system is in bad shape. “The situation in Ukraine is not helping,” said Clemens Boonekamp, an independent trade policy analyst and former head of the WTO Department of Agriculture. “But the mere fact that they are meeting is a sign of respect for the system.” Alan Wolf, the former deputy director general of the WTO, seemed optimistic that members could make at least some progress. They could reach an agreement, he said, to help alleviate an impending global food crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine by ensuring that the UN World Food Program gets relief from food export bans imposed by WTO-wishing countries. to feed their own people. Wolff, now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., expressed his confidence in Okonjo-Iweala, saying: “I’m not willing to sell it short.” He said members “seem to be making progress” in an agreement to reduce subsidies that encourage overfishing – something they have been trying to do for more than two decades. “Are they closing it this time?” Wolf asked. “Vague. It was a drama.” One problem – among many – is that the WTO operates by consensus, so any of its 164 member countries could resolve the projects. In short, the WTO has become a major diplomatic battleground between developed and developing countries, and some experts say reform is needed if things are ever to be done. The trade organization, set up in 1995 as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, experienced a slow collapse. It has not created a major trade deal in years. The latest big success was a 2014 deal that was charged as a boost to lower-income countries that reduced bureaucracy at the clearing borders. Years ago, the United States began imposing heavy fines on the WTO Court of Appeals, which in theory has the final say in trade disputes, such as a high-profile US-EU deal involving aircraft maker Airbus and Boeing. Then came US President Donald Trump, threatening to withdraw America from the WTO because he insisted it was unfair to the US. In the end, it did not, and simply bypassed the WTO – imposing sanctions on allies and enemies and ignoring the rules of procedure and the trade union dispute settlement system. Once the WTO champion, the United States has challenged China’s acceptance and insists Beijing is violating the rules of the trade organization too much. The United States has accused China of, among other things, over-supporting state-owned companies and obstructing free trade. China denies these allegations. A generation ago, the WTO sparked huge, subversive, and even violent protests – especially by anti-globalizers and anarchists who hated the secrecy of closed doors and its image by the elites. William Reinsch, a former US trade official, warned that the WTO now risks becoming irrelevant. The best way to show that it still matters, he wrote this month, is to negotiate an agreement, perhaps on fisheries, COVID-19 vaccines or a more difficult issue: encouraging more free trade in agriculture. Rains, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., said the United States needs to do more – including compromise – to ensure the WTO can reach agreement on contentious issues. “The future of the WTO is in jeopardy,” he said. “Failure would be bad for fish and farmers, but it would also be bad for a global economy based on the rule of law.”
AP Economics author Paul Wiseman contributed to this report from Washington.
