The Washington Post breaks down the most important races to determine control of the Senate, House and governorships on Tuesday
November 5, 2022 at 4:35 pm EDT Clark County poll workers work quickly to start long lines of voters on the final day of early voting at the Galleria Sunset Mall in Las Vegas on Friday. Nevada, which has several close House races and a tight race for governor and U.S. Senate, will be the focus of Election Day. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post) Comment on this story Comment Democrats this weekend are bracing for possible steep losses in the House and trying to retain control of the Senate and governorships across the country as a midterm election season that held some surprises ends in keeping with convention, with the party out of power claiming momentum. Republicans are well-positioned to retake the House, having aggressively moved into Democratic territory by capitalizing on voter anxiety about inflation and crime and benefiting from disapproval of President Biden’s leadership. Republicans need to pick up just five seats to win back the House, but the atmosphere is so murky that some Democratic strategists privately acknowledge that losing 20 seats would be a good night. The outcome is less predictable in the Senate, as uncertainty looms over contests in Georgia and Nevada that have long been considered dead, and Democratic-held races in Arizona, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania have tightened in final stretch, boosting GOP hopes of sweeping the one seat needed to gain control of the upper chamber. Meanwhile, Democrats are suddenly on the defensive in the gubernatorial race in New York, a longtime party stronghold, and in Oregon. “Republicans are getting out,” Adam Laxalt, GOP Senate candidate in Nevada, said at a campaign event Friday night in North Las Vegas. “Democrats… what should they be motivated by? This is our shot.” Recent history dictates that the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections, but Democrats thought they could buck that trend. Enabled from his end Roe v. Wade and bolstered by the GOP’s rise of polarizing, often untested candidates loyal to former President Donald Trump, Democrats have sought to frame the midterms as a reckoning with Republican extremism rather than a referendum on the current president. “Even Democrats having a chance to have a decent night is unprecedented in the political environment we live in,” said Chuck Rocha, a veteran Democratic strategist who has worked on many races this year. “The off-year election, the president, redistricting, inflation — my God. How will the Democrats not lose everything?” Now many worry that a strong night nationally for Republicans could upend candidates on their own ballot — though some Democrats say they’ve long expected key races to narrow and remain optimistic. “The Republicans came home in August and September, and they’re coming home now. They have solidified,” said Celinda Lake, chief pollster for the 2020 Biden campaign. The trend extends to some of the most Democratic jurisdictions, including New York, where Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is in an unexpectedly tight re-election race and where Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is in danger of losing in a district where Biden once won by 10 points and where Republicans have dramatically increased spending in the past month. Convinced that they will at least hold a majority in the House next year, Republicans are already planning to launch oversight investigations into the Biden administration, from the Justice Department to the handling of the coronavirus pandemic. GOP control of the Senate could also delay the confirmation of Biden’s judicial and executive nominees and strengthen the party’s hand in potential fights to undo Biden’s legislative accomplishments from his first two years in office . Leaders of both parties have been traveling to battleground states in recent days, trumpeting their bottom line and trying to boost grassroots voter turnout. Democrats are trying to send an urgent message about heightened threats to the democratic process, with Biden warning this week of a “path to chaos” as many GOP candidates deny the results of the 2020 election and some refuse to say that will accept the year’s results. A majority of GOP candidates for the House, Senate and key state offices have declined or contested the 2020 results, a troubling tally in the first election since a pro-Trump mob stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 , to disrupt the certification of the vote. But candidates and strategists recognize that for many Americans, immediate problems like inflation will trump more existential concerns about democracy. “I understand that democracy may not seem like a top priority right now,” former President Barack Obama admitted this week at a rally in Nevada, one of several energetic appearances he’s made in recent days as the Democrats’ biggest star. Democrats have shifted to sharper messages aimed at people’s pocketbooks, casting Republicans as threats to Medicare and Social Security, but some strategists regret not focusing on those issues sooner. “We had a very strong opposition to the economy and we should have discussed it more,” Lake said. “I just hope it’s not too late.” Republicans head into Election Day with a slight lead in many polls, and some GOP representatives were once wary of the fallout from the upset. Roe they say those concerns have evaporated. While the abortion issue seemed to sway suburban women and other key swing groups, some polls show those voters swinging toward the GOP. The calculation is simple for voters like Patty Fulgenzi of Maple Valley, Wash., who said her retirement budget is stretched to the point where she’s considering going back to work. “Over the last couple of years, things just seem to be getting worse,” she said at a recent rally for Matt Larkin, the Republican challenging her congresswoman, Democrat Kim Schrier. “I hope for a change.” Below is a look at the battle for control of the Senate and House, as well as a survey of the most viewed governor’s races from coast to coast. The race for control of the Senate is remarkably close, and Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to win the majority. Polling averages put at least eight Senate races within 5 percentage points, and while many Republican candidates have made measurable gains in recent weeks, each side still has a reasonable path to a majority. Two places up for election Any seat losses or gains could change the Democrats’ narrow majority in the Senate. Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter Two places up for election Any seat losses or gains could change the Democrats’ narrow majority in the Senate. Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter Two places up for election 36 Dec. it is not for elections 29 Representatives are not ready for elections Any seat losses or gains could change the Democrats’ narrow majority in the Senate. Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter Republicans are challenging Democratic incumbents in purple states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire, where Biden’s approval ratings have fallen since he carried those states in 2020 and voters express a dismal view of the economy. Open Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina are also Republican-friendly territory. But some early recruiting failures on the Republican side combined with Trump’s support of inexperienced primary candidates complicated the party’s path to a majority. Republicans see top pickup opportunity in Nevada: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is in a close race with former state attorney general Adam Laxalt (R), whose father and grandfather were both senators. Privately, national Democrats admit this is their toughest race and hope the state’s Democratic machine can push Cortez Masto to the edge. Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the Senate, has hammered Laxalt on the issue of abortion in the pro-abortion state, reminding voters he once called Roe v. Wade a “joke” and supports a referendum to ban abortion in Nevada after 13 weeks of pregnancy. But Laxalt, who chaired Trump’s 2020 re-election bid in Nevada and pushed his false claims of voter fraud, is betting the economy will be top of mind for voters. Nevada’s tourism-based economy has been hit hard post-Covid, and the state is also struggling with high gas prices. Georgia could once again determine which party controls the Senate: Former football star Herschel Walker, the GOP nominee, has made gains in his race against Democratic Sen. Raphael G. Warnock despite allegations from two women that he paid for abortions and threatened his ex-wife’s life. Warnock, the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, has warned that voters cannot depend on Walker. “If we can’t trust him to tell the truth about his life, how can we trust him to protect our lives and our families and our children and our jobs and our future?” he asked at a recent campaign stop. Walker has higher odds…
