Top Republicans in the House of Representatives say their path to a majority will run through the Empire State after redistricting left the historically blue stronghold with flip-flopping seats targeted to go red. “We think New York is a top battleground state. We have an opportunity to win a bunch of seats in New York, and we’ve invested nearly $10 million to make that happen,” said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minnesota), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Republicans need to flip just five seats to take control of the House and seize the speaker’s gavel from California Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
The president stormed the country on behalf of his candidates: “I am like a rock that returns to Earth, that bounces in the atmosphere, every day we are in a different place.” He is optimistic about the Empire State. “You have a special situation in New York,” Emmer said. “Democrats control every level of government in New York and frankly voters are fed up with the results we’ve seen. That’s the other reason I’m very confident we’re going to have a good night in New York.” The red wave isn’t likely to reach New York’s five boroughs, but the party is targeting a number of areas on Long Island and upstate New York. The top target is Emmer’s Democratic counterpart, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, a scandal-plagued Hudson Valley lawmaker who currently heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Mike Lawler, I think he’s going to beat Sean Patrick Maloney,” Emmer said. “[Maloney] has pushed radical anti-crime policies like cashless bail that allows violent criminals to literally terrorize innocent citizens at 9 o’clock at night and be back on the street committing more crimes by 9 a.m. the next morning.” “Long Island could be a sweep,” Emmer added, boasting that he not only expected to hold the seats of GOP Reps. Lee Zeldin and Andrew Garbarino, but that he believed the party would flip the other two seats in the hands of Democrats, now open thanks to the retirements of Reps. Tom Suozzi and Kathleen Rice. Emmer has repeatedly dismissed Democratic fundraising, which has won GOP contributions in nearly every hot New York race this cycle. Maloney himself has collected almost five times the cash as Lawler. “The issues they are running on are not the issues people care about. They burned money on the streets.” Emer sniffed. “We never have their money. I would argue that it costs more to sell a lie than to sell the truth.” The GOP is also playing defense in New York in some races, pouring cash to save Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and keep an open upstate GOP seat that includes Democratic strongholds like Utica and Binghamton.
Although Emer was confident a majority was in the bag, he declined to speculate on how many seats the party could take in New York, which he visited last month. “The energy is there,” Emmer said.

THE SWING MATCHES:

NY — 19 Columbia, Greene, Delaware, Broome, Tioga counties Josh Riley (Democrat) — Uncontested Raised: $3.6 million Marc Molinaro (Republican) — Challenger Raised: $2.2 million Latest poll: Riley up 5 points Democrat Pat Riley leads Republican Marc Molinaro in the latest poll for their race in New York’s 19th Congressional District. This district extends from Ithaca to the Massachusetts border. Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro is taking his second stab at the seat after losing a special election to Rep. Pat Ryan in August in a race widely seen as a toss-up. With the redistricting, Ryan went to the neighboring 18th district, while Molinaro will face Riley, a local lawyer from Endicott. The new 19th district leans Democratic and supported Joe Biden over President Trump by a margin of 52-48%. But amid rising crime and inflation since Molinaro’s first loss, Emmer said Molinaro “will win.”
NY — 18 Poughkeepsie, Beekman, Kiryas Joel Representative Pat Ryan (Democrat) — Seat Total revenue: $4 million Colin Schmitt (Republican) — Challenger Total revenue: $1.9 million Last Poll: N/A Rep. Pat Ryan is trying to move into the 18th Congressional District in a race against New Windsor Assemblyman Colin Schmitt. Ryan, a former Ulster County executive and Iraq War veteran, barely made it to curtain call after his upset special election in August before having to fend off a Republican challenger again. He will face New Windsor Assemblyman Colin Schmitt. Both men have deep ties to the area, and the race is one of the most competitive in the state. Schmitt has leaned into GOP talking points around “reckless spending” and historic inflation. Ryan has made abortion rights a central issue. NY — 17 Hudson Valley, New Town, Yorktown Dec Total revenue: $5 million Mike Lawler (Republican) — Challenger Total revenue: $1.1 million
Latest Poll: Lawler up 6 points Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is trailing Republican challenger Mike Lawler in the latest poll. Maloney is the only member of the House Democratic leadership facing a competitive race this cycle, and knocking him out has become a top GOP priority. The party has poured millions into the race to boost Congressman Mike Lawler. Maloney, a talented fundraiser and hard-nosed activist, alienated many allies when he entered the 17th district after redistricting. The district’s incumbent Democrat, first-year “Squad” member Mondaire Jones, finally jumped ship for a hard-fought Manhattan primary that he lost to the Levi Strauss & Co. successor. Dan Goldman. Maloney then won a challenge from incumbent Senator Alessandra Biaggi. During his tenure, Maloney made a name for himself by hiring violent former opponents to top party posts, giving his personal trainer a job on the House staff and advocating a cashless bail bond. “I think he’s gone. The content of the discussion has completely changed. They’re on the wrong side of the crime argument,” said Democratic Sen. Hank Sheinkopf.
NY — 3 Oyster Bay, Glen Cove, North Hempstead, northeast Queens. Robert Zimmerman (Democrat) — Challenger Total revenue: $2.65 million George Devolder-Santos (Republican) — Challenger Total revenue: $2.7 million
Latest Poll: Zimmerman up 1 point Robert Zimmerman and George Devolder-Santos are running to replace retiring Rep. Tom Suotsi. Voters in northwest Long Island are locked in an election battle between Zimmerman, a suave PR executive, and financier Devolder-Santos. Both are openly gay, marking the first major party race for Congress in the US. Suotsi easily relinquished Santos in 2020, but with his withdrawal, Republicans are increasingly hoping that a red wave could carry the would-be pole over the finish line. Zimmerman has criticized Santos for his apparent opposition to abortion rights and Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill, while Santos says his opponent had an agenda that “doesn’t speak to the issues we have today.” Sheinkopf said. “Zimmerman performed abortions until a week ago, suddenly it became a crime. That tells me he has a problem.”
NY — 4 Hempstead, Freeport, Long Beach Laura Gillen (Democrat) — Challenger Total revenue: $1.487 million Anthony D’Esposito (Republican) — Challenger Total revenue: $1.05 million Last Poll: N/A Laura Gillen and Anthony D’Esposito are running to replace Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice. Voters in southwest Long Island will lose Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice, offering another open seat for Republicans to grab. The race pits Gillen, a former Hempstead town supervisor, against D’Esposito, a retired NYPD detective. The district has been controlled by Democrats for two decades, but Long Island Republicans are hoping for a big turnout from the faithful and that enthusiasm for Zeldin’s native son could lead to an expanded turnout. D’Esposito has been named in at least three lawsuits during his tenure with the NYPD, which have cost the city more than $80,000 in settlement payments.
New York — 25 Rochester Rep. Joseph Morelle (Democrat) — incumbent Total revenue: $1.9 million La’Ron Singletary (Republican) — Challenger Total raised: $572,000 Latest poll: Morelle up 4 points Rep. Joseph Morelle faces a surprising challenge from Republican La’Ron Singletary in Rochester. Few expected the Rochester-dominated area to be competitive at the start of the cycle. Incumbent Morelle has held the district since 2018 — taking over from Louise Slaughter, who held the seat safely for more than three decades. Morelle faces a strong challenge from Singletary, a former Rochester police chief. The political newcomer has leaned heavily on his law and order credentials and has spoken of the need to strengthen the police and end cashless bail. “Morel has never been on anyone’s map, but what we’ve seen recently is that position is playing out.” Emmer said.