Tropical Depression Nine formed early Friday morning over the central Caribbean Sea and will likely become the next tropical storm — named Hermine, according to the National Hurricane Center.   

  This system is attracting the attention of meteorologists because both US and European weather forecast models show it developing into a hurricane and entering the Gulf of Mexico early next week.   

  Nine has winds of 35 mph about 615 miles east-southeast of Jamaica, tracking west-northwest at 13 mph.   

  “Only slow intensification is forecast for the next day or so, followed by more significant intensification over the weekend and into early next week,” the hurricane center said.   

  In the near term, Nine is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, northern Venezuela and northern Colombia, which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides on the islands.   

  The system is then forecast to gain strength, intensifying into a tropical storm as it heads toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Tropical storm watches and warnings are likely to be issued for these locations within the next 24 hours.   

  Forecasted rainfall totals:

Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao: Additional 1 to 2 inches Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches Northern Colombia: 3 to 6 inches Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with a local maximum of up to 12 inches Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with a local maximum of up to 6 inches

  After passing through the Caribbean this weekend, the system is forecast to track near or over western Cuba as a hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.   

  “Early model guidance is in fairly good agreement, but the largest dispersion across the track begins to take shape at 48 hours,” the hurricane center said.  “There is still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast in the 4-5 day time frame.”   

  Both major weather forecast models, US and European, currently show the tracking system in the Gulf of Mexico early next week.  However, the American looks more western and the European more eastern.   

  On Friday morning, the European model showed the storm over the Florida Keys on Tuesday, affecting much of southern Florida.  The US model showed the storm hitting much of the west-central Florida coast on Wednesday.   

  The official forecast piece from the hurricane center splits the difference between forecast models, showing the storm approaching the Florida peninsula late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as a powerful Category 2 hurricane.   

  Regardless of where the storms end up tracking, conditions in the Gulf are favorable for the system to strengthen, and it will do so very quickly, Maria Torres, a spokeswoman for the hurricane center, told CNN.   

  It was a slow start to what was predicted to be an above-average hurricane season.  Only one storm made landfall in a US territory, and no hurricanes made landfall or threatened the contiguous United States.   

  Now, a week after the peak of hurricane season, the tropics appear to have woken up and forecasters worry that people have let their guard down.   

  “After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has picked up speed,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at Colorado State University.   

  “People tend to let their guard down and think, oh yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said.  “But actually, the season is still going on.  We are still in September.  we still have October.  Anything that forms over the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something we need to continue to watch very closely.”   

  The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.   

  No matter what, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast, pay attention to updated forecasts this weekend through early next week.