The ninth named tropical storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has formed in the central Caribbean Sea and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Florida next week.  If it does, it will be the first major hurricane to affect the state since 2018.   

  Tropical Storm Ian was located about 270 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, as of 2 p.m.  on Saturday and was moving west at 16 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.  “Significant strengthening is expected in the coming days,” the center said.   

  The forecast shows Ian “as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf as it approaches the west coast of Florida,” after passing briefly over Cuba at or near a major hurricane, the center said Friday.  Much of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including the eastern Panhandle, could be at risk.   

  Forecast models for Saturday afternoon vary depending on where Ian may reach the Florida coast.  The European model shows landfall near Tampa on Thursday morning, while the US model shows landfall near Pensacola on Friday morning.   

  The official hurricane center track splits the difference between the models, showing landfall north of Tampa on Thursday morning.   

  Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis on Saturday expanded an emergency order from 24 counties to include the entire state, citing “previous conditions, which are predicted to be a major disaster.”   

  “The Florida Department of Emergency Management, working with the National Hurricane Center to assess weather forecasts, has determined that there is a continued risk of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, high winds, dangerous seas and isolated tornado activity for Florida .  Peninsula and portions of the Florida Big Bend, North Florida and Northeast Florida,” the order states.   

  Tropical storm-force winds could begin affecting Southwest Florida early Tuesday, with possible landfall on Wednesday or Thursday.   

  After strengthening overnight, the storm – formerly known as Tropical Depression Nine – has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) and is forecast to reach hurricane status within the next two days as it approaches the Cayman Islands by early Monday.  Further strengthening is expected as the system approaches and crosses western Cuba by Monday afternoon.   

  “Ian is likely to be near major hurricane intensity as it approaches western Cuba,” the hurricane center said.  “Since Ian is not expected to remain in Cuba for long, little weakening is expected due to this land interaction.”   

  If it strengthens to a Category 3 or higher before reaching Florida, it will be the first major hurricane to make landfall there since 2018’s Hurricane Michael, which was a Category 5 monster storm when it slammed into the Florida panhandle.  Michael also underwent rapid intensification before making landfall, a phenomenon that has become more likely as ocean temperatures rise due to the climate crisis.   

  A hurricane warning has been issued for Grand Cayman and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac in the Cayman Islands and for Jamaica.   

  DeSantis on Friday requested federal emergency aid in anticipation of the threat when he declared a state of emergency for 20 counties.  In accordance with the statewide emergency order, members of the Florida National Guard will be activated and on standby awaiting orders.   

  The governor urged those in the potential path of the storm to prepare.   

  “This storm has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane, and we encourage all Floridians to prepare,” DeSantis said in a news release.  “We are coordinating with all state and local government partners to monitor the potential impacts of this storm.”   

  It was a slow start to what was predicted to be an above-average hurricane season.  Only one storm made landfall on US territory, and no hurricanes made landfall or threatened adjacent states.   

  Now, a week after the peak of hurricane season, the tropics appear to have woken up and forecasters worry that people have let their guard down.   

  “After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has picked up speed,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at Colorado State University.   

  “People tend to let their guard down and think, oh yeah, we’re out of the woods,” hurricane center spokeswoman Maria Torres told CNN.  “But actually, the season is still going on.  We are still in September.  we still have October.  Anything that forms over the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something we need to continue to watch very closely.”   

  The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.   

  No matter what, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast, pay attention to updated forecasts this weekend through early next week.